There are less than two weeks now to Kentucky Derby 2023, and I am still saying Practical Move is my top pick for the one race in which everyone wants to know who you like.
He’s been at the top of my list since the afternoon that he shot away from his competition seven weeks ago in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes. But I must admit that my confidence in him being the “one” took a bit of a hit in his last race.
It was another win when he scored in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 8. But with both Mandarin Hero and Skinner bearing down on him late, I have more concern about the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby than I did before his third straight graded-stakes score.
As a son of Practical Joke, there always was a concern about the 1 1/4-mile distance, but he is a topnotch sire who should be able to produce a classic winner under the right circumstances. My worry is also tempered by having Afleet Alex, an impressive winner of two-thirds of the Triple Crown, on the other side.
Still, that finish in the Santa Anita Derby raises doubts. Was Practical Move showing the upper limits of his distance capability, or was he held back by his jockey for too long before gamely denying a pair of horses running a big race?
Time will tell on his distance limitations, but otherwise, I love what I see from the Tim Yakteen trainee.
He seems to be a rider’s dream for Ramon Vasquez. He possesses push-button gears that always seem to put him in ideal position heading into the first turn and down the backstretch. Now the 20-horse field of the Kentucky Derby can be a whole different ball of wax, but every time I'll take the horse who is agile and can quickly move to the right spot.
Practical Move also has that burst of acceleration that is so valuable in the Kentucky Derby. It is a race often won by a decisive move on the far turn and early in the stretch. While others might be struggling with traffic or rallying too wide, he seems like the type who can punch to the front as the field turns for home.
He turned in a sharp four-furlong workout Friday in 47.00 seconds in company with a talented young horse named Kangaroo Court. That gives me confidence that he has bounced back from the Santa Anita Derby the right way and will be ready on the first Saturday in May.
Next will come a plane ride to Louisville and a local acclimation. His last work before the Derby will come at Churchill Downs, and it will be important to see how he gets over the track.
I definitely like the odds that I expect for him on Derby day. He continues to be slightly ignored compared with some of the heavy hitters from the East. Despite winning three straight graded stakes, I expect his odds for the big one to approach 10-1.
This is a colt who has run against good horses in every one of his seven career races. He has always performed well, but it’s also clear that he has improved with experience and maturity. I am not very concerned with his class level heading into his biggest test yet.
In my opinion, this year’s Kentucky Derby is a wide-open race with plenty of very interesting horses. Practical Move is a horse I’ve been on for a while, and the odds should be right. But that nagging question about the distance remains. If not him, though, who else would be my top choice?
Forte is the obvious favorite. He is the champion and a four-time Grade 1 winner. The son of Violence looked like the best juvenile in the nation last fall and has nothing to dispel that belief in two starts this year. He is a deserving favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
If you want to poke holes, perhaps you can look at the Florida Derby as a sign of vulnerability, but you can just as easily see that victory as just how determined the winner of 6-of-7 lifetime is to get to the finish line first. For me, I’m just not excited about jumping on the clear favorite in such a wide-open race.
Two Phil’s is a horse I like quite a bit. He is experienced, has run well at Churchill before, and, like Practical Move, I think he shouldn’t fall too far out of it early.
His win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), and most specifically the way he finished, was exactly what I want to see from a Kentucky Derby contender. The son of Hard Spun will be tested for class a week from Saturday, but his odds of upward of 15-1 are very attractive for such a nice colt.
It’s hard not to like how both Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice are coming into the big race. They each come in having won two straight graded-stakes races at different tracks. As the possible second and third choice on Derby Day, I really don’t think either will be my top play, though. Still, there is plenty to like.
Each of them is still relatively lightly raced and seemingly getting better with every start. Both Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice have the pedigree to get the distance, are with top trainers and can finish with a flourish. I do wonder whether they are two of the more likely top contenders to be shuffled back early and at the mercy of racing luck. I also worry that this will be a big jump up as far as the level of competition for each, but you probably can say that about every horse in the race.
And then there is Derma Sotogake. Horses coming out of the UAE Derby (G2) have a dismal track record in the Kentucky Derby. There are just so many demands put on a young horse on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs, it's no wonder that horses coming from halfway across the world have failed. Having said that, this son of Mind Your Biscuits could be different.
He has been excellent switching to dirt, has a versatile running style and looked great in his last start. Throw in the fact that Japanese horses have done so well on a world stage in recent years, and it becomes difficult not to be afraid of Derma Sotogake.
Both Kingsbarns and Mage have impressed in their short careers, but until someone not named Justify wins the Derby with such little experience, I cannot consider them top contenders. I have seen too many horses with only three career races run poorly in the 20-horse craziness.
I tend to be pretty loyal with horses that I really like, but gambling and rooting are two different things. Will Practical Move be the horse that is the featured player on most of my many Kentucky Derby tickets?
As of today, I am still leaning that way, but it’s a long 13 days between now and when the 20 young horses hit the track for the greatest spectacle in racing.
I will enjoy the anticipation until the gates spring open, but I also will watch the Derby contenders closely. Practical Move’s hold as my top choice is a tenuous one.
