HorseRacingNation.com NewsWire

Derby pedigree: Spice Runner continues Gun Runner's legacy

Sun, 14 Sep 2025 16:14:41 GMT

The road to Kentucky Derby 2026 started off with a bang and ended with a whimper in Saturday’s Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs, when the green but game Spice Runner overtook the faltering favorite Comport and stuck his head in front at the wire. The pair were clearly best, finishing six lengths clear of Vost, a last-out maiden winner who checked in third.

Spice Runner completed the mile in 1:36.59, closing his final furlong in 13.25 seconds, a tick slower than Taken by the Wind, his filly counterpart in the Pocahantas (G3). She completed in 1:36.50 with a 13.07 final furlong.

Including his Iroquois victory, Spice Runner (Gun Runner - Simple Surprise, by Cowboy Cal) now has two wins and a second in four starts. He finished second to Comport in the Ellis Park Juvenile, was a pace factor before fading in the Bashford Manor Stakes and earned his first victory at Churchill.

The chestnut colt is a third-generation Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred, conditioned by Steve Asmussen, and has banked $293,170 along with 10 Kentucky Derby points. This marks Asmussen’s first Iroquois win since Lucky Player in 2014 and his fourth overall.

Sire

2017 horse of the year Gun Runner (Candy Ride - Quiet Giant, by Giant’s Causeway) needs no introduction to racing fans or pedigree enthusiasts. He is firmly established among the world’s elite stallions, ranking third on the national sire List. From just five crops, he’s sired 46 stakes winners, which is 7% of all winners, with a 41% overall strike rate.

His progeny excels across distances and surfaces, from early-developing juveniles to classic performers. Standouts include 2024 champion 3-year-old colt Sierra Leone and 2021 champion 2-year-old filly Echo Zulu. His current 2-year-old crop is led by Brant, winner of the Del Mar Futurity (G1), and the unbeaten Jumping the Gun, winner of the Blue Hen Stakes.

Female family

Spice Runner hails from a physically sound and talented distaff line. Four of his first five dams own black type, and his sixth dam, Red Damask, is a reine-de-course. All were precocious sprinters.

Spice Runner is inbred 3 x 3 to the legendary Giant’s Causeway. The stallion is Gun Runner’s damsire as well as Cowboy Cal’s sire. The close inbreeding yielded Spice Runner’s full brother Gunite, plus Plantstepsdream, a three-time listed-winning sprinter in Sweden.

Spice Runner is a full brother to Gunite, who earned more than $2.4 million in 21 starts. Gunite was a precocious 2-year-old, winning the Hopeful Stakes (G1) by daylight, and later became a world-class sprinter. The compact dark bay colt won or placed in 14 stakes, including a 1 3/4-length upset victory over the reigning champion male sprinter Elite Power before retiring to Coolmore for a $30,000 stud fee.

Their dam, Simple Surprise (Cowboy Cal - Simplify, by Pulpit), hit the board in 11 of 15 starts and earned $185,446 in three years as a stakes-winning turf sprinter.

Simple Surprises is a half sister to a trio of black-type runners, including Optionality (Gun Runner), a stakes-winning sprinter-miler; her full brother, Counterspy, Grade 3-placed at 1 1/8 miles; and stakes-placed miler Simply Sovereign (American Pharoah).

Spicer Runner’s second dam, Simplify (Pulpit - Classic Olympio, by Olympio), hit the board in 13 of 22 starts in four years as a dirt sprinter. She was precocious, winning her debut on May 1, 2008, at Churchill and then finishing third, beaten a head for second by Rachel Alexandra, in the Debutante Stakes (G3) at the same track. She won the Loudonville Stakes at Saratoga the following year.

Spice Runner is a member of the Lowes Family 1-l. a branch that has produced Preakness and Belmont winners. Stage Door Johnny, winner of the Belmont Stakes, and Spice Runner are distantly related through the Rene, Folle Nuit (FR), Spice Runner’s eighth dam and Stage Door Johny’s third.

Damsire

Cowboy Cal (Giant’s Causeway - Texas Tammy, by Seeking the Gold) competed for three years and earned $1,037,810 in 19 starts as a multiple Grade 2 and Grade 3 winner from a mile to 1 1/8 miles over synthetic and turf. Although he never won at the highest level, the dark bay placed second three times, at 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/4 miles.

As a damsire, Cowboy Cal has nine stakes winners, including 2021 Preakness hero Rombauer (Twirling Candy) and Powdered Sugar (Gift Box), both of whom, like Gun Runner, hail from the Candy Ride sire line.

Spice Runner might carry the X-factor. His damsire, plus second damsire Pulpit and third damsire Olympio, all are carriers. Digging deeper, Spice Runner has 20 instances of the famed Princequillo bloodline.

Kentucky Derby contender or pretender?

History is not on Spice Runner’s side. Since its inception in 1982, the Iroquois has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner, though several alumni made noise in the classics.

The Iroquois was created in 1982. None of the winners have returned to win the Kentucky Derby. However, over the last 15 years, we’ve made progress.

Iroquois winner Astrology (2010) was third in the Preakness, and more recently Seize the Grey, fourth in the 2023 Iroquois, returned to win the Preakness. Runner-ups Midnight Bourbon and Looking at Lee, as well as Ride on Curlin, all hit the board in Triple Crown races.

One Iroquois winner from the last six who ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile hit the board. Not This Time (2016) missed the Juvenile victory by a neck and unfortunately was injured and retired.

As for Spice Runner, he is still a work in progress, running on raw talent while figuring things out. His quirks were evident from his debut, when he raced without blinkers, ducked away from the crop, and failed to change leads until late in the stretch. Blinkers helped him improve in the Bashford Manor and Ellis Park Juvenile, but in the Iroquois, he reverted to old habits.

For the first time, Spice Runner was asked to sit behind the pace in traffic. He was stressed, pulling hard early, then relaxed after the first quarter.

He showed a competitive nature, moving forward between rivals and targeting horses in front.

But things fell apart in the stretch, as Spice Runner was busy thinking about the horses around him. He didn’t switch leads and ducked from the crop. Eventually, he regained focus, switched leads and targeted the tiring Comport.

Physically, Spice Runner has the conformation to go farther. Unlike his compact, sprinter-type brother Gunite, who takes after the female family and is a smallish dark-bay built for speed, Spice Runner is bigger, with a longer stride and the conformation of a two-turn horse, similar to Gun Runner’s.

Although it’s way too soon to be thinking about a race that is 33 weeks away, Spice Runner shows promise. Other Iroquois winners evolved into solid stakes horses, and with his pedigree and competitive drive, Spice Runner could do the same.

Head to Head: Can Sovereignty be upset in the Travers?

Tue, 19 Aug 2025 09:30:40 GMT

The crown jewel of Saratoga’s summer meet, the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes, has drawn the season’s standout 3-year-old, Sovereignty, along with four challengers hoping to spoil his reign.

His opposition includes a Grade 2 winner, a listed-stakes winner, and two others who have yet to win beyond maiden company, although one owns multiple graded placings.

This year’s five-horse field is the smallest since 1994, when Holy Bull turned back Concern in a dramatic stretch duel while leaving three rivals far behind. History suggests the Travers often defines champions. Since 2000, eight winners have gone on to earn the Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old, and in 2001, Point Given parlayed his victory into horse-of-the-year honors.

Carded as race 13 on Saturday’s 14-race program, the Travers is set for a 6:14 p.m. EDT post time.

We reviewed the data and agree that it is Sovereignty’s race to lose, but in the Travers, surprises have a way of occurring.

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. Magnitude (2-1)

A consistent sort, Magnitude finished worse than fourth only twice, both times over off tracks. Although a bone chip derailed him from the Kentucky Derby trail, Magnitude returned to dominate the Iowa Derby by 9 1/4 lengths. He earned a lofty 104 Brisnet Speed Rating, one of three colts in the Travers with a triple-digit figure. By a sire of a Travers winner, Magnitude should handle 1 1/4 miles. His second dam, Octave, captured the Mother Goose and CCA Oaks, both Grade 1’s, and among Octave’s many accomplishments, she was second in the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and Kentucky Oaks. The Steve Asmussen trainee was raring to go in his Aug. 9 breeze in company with Shattuck, a 4-year-old claimer. Magnitude started a length back and stayed with his partner through the stretch until his rider shook the reins. Then Magnitude was off like Secretariat and quickly opened up by double-digit lengths. He was timed in 1:1.07 for five furlongs. Magnitude is a need-the-lead type and might have early company from his next-door neighbor, Bracket Buster. But Magnitude has a high cruising speed and can sustain his speed. Contender.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Magnitude dominated the Iowa Derby by 9 1/4 lengths off a five-month layoff. After an identical performance in the Risen Star (G2) as a 43-1 outsider, Magnitude needed surgery for a chip in his left front ankle. Both the procedure and the recovery went smoothly, and based on his performance at Prairie Meadows, the colt hasn’t missed a beat. Magnitude received a 105 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form for the Iowa Derby and a 108 Beyer for the Risen Star (G2), putting him in a tie for second and fifth for best Beyer speed figures for any 3-year-old. Asmussen has been doing well at Saratoga this year with a 26% win and 54% in-the-money clip in the last six months. Ben Curtis, who was aboard for Magnitude’s last two races, has the return call. Distance could be a question, but I’ve liked this colt since late last year. Contender.

2. Bracket Buster (20-1)

His distant fourth-place finish in the Haskell (G1) proved Bracket Buster is a cut below the best in the 3-year-old colt division. Most of Vekoma’s offspring have distance limitations beyond 1 1/16 miles. Bracket Buster’s immediate female family is speed-oriented, and he mght be better suited as a sprinter-miler. Pass.

Trained by Vicki Oliver, Bracket Buster was last seen finishing fourth in the Haskell (G1). This colt has been a useful sort for me as I had him on ticket in both the Lexington (G3, second at 25-1 odds) and the Haskell (G1, fourth at 27-1 odds). Aside from those two races, he was seventh in the slop in a 1 1/16-mile optional claimer and won a muddy edition of the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth by seven lengths. Oliver is winless at Saratoga this year, but she’s saddled only one starter at the historic track so far in 2025. She is also 0% wins with an 8% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last year, according to Race Lens. Luis Saez gets the mount. Use underneath.

3. Strategic Focus (6-1)

Strategic Focus is bred for classic distances, being by Gun Runner out of a Curlin mare. But after three starts, Strategic Focus is still trying to figure out how to get out of the gate and switch leads in the stretch. He had these problems in his last two starts, and it cost him in the Curlin Stakes. So to keep him focusing strategically, he’ll get a new set of blinkers for the Travers. Wearing the new equipment, he had a recent five-furlong breeze in company with the older maiden, Duration. Strategic Focus switches leads in morning works with and without blinkers. Yet he appeared to concentrate better with them. He has an outsider’s chance to pull off the upset, but an exotics placing is more likely.

Trained by Chad Brown, Strategic Focus debuted in April, besting elders in a mile maiden race at Aqueduct. The runner-up from that race was a next-out winner, and although no others from that field have won, a couple have hit the board in each subsequent start. Strategic Focus crossed the wire first in his second start but was disqualified to second after shying in a couple of times in the stretch. He also was late to change leads. Most recently, Strategic Focus was third in the Curlin Stakes. He had the lead at the top of the stretch but was denied at the wire by a half-length by Chancer McPatrick and So Sandy. Brown adds blinkers to the colt’s equipment and is 25% wins with a 45% in-the-money rate with the first-time blinkers angle. Flavien Prat has the return call. Exotics.

4. Sovereignty (2-5)

What can I write about Sovereignty that hasn’t already been said? The leading 3-year-old improves with each race, and unless something untoward happens, it’s Saratoga, after all, he’s our winner. Someone buy me a Hattie's chicken dinner, please.

Trained by Bill Mott, not much needs to be said about Sovereignty. The winner of two-thirds of the Triple Crown enters on a three-race win streak, with his last two races being at Saratoga. He also is undefeated at 1 1/4 miles. Regular jockey Junior Alvarado will be aboard. The one to beat.

5. McAfee (20-1)

I had high hopes for McAfee. Thorpedo Anna’s little brother struggles against Grade 2 and Grade 3 types at 1 1/8 miles and has lost ground in all starts beyond a mile. Race Lens shows Cloud Computing’s offspring have three wins in 20 starts at 1 1/8 miles and beyond, but 15% finish second or third. Let’s see McAfee take on a lesser class of sprinters or milers to earn a black-type victory. Pass.

Trained by Rick Dutrow Jr. and the half-brother to champion Thorpedo Anna, McAfee came with lofty expectations. Unfortunately, he hasn’t quite lived up to our expectations. He’s 7: 1-3-1 lifetime and was second in the Peter Pan (G3), third in the Ohio Derby (G3) and second in the West Virginia Derby (G3) in his last three starts. Dutrow has 14% wins and 46% in the money in graded stakes since returning to the racing community. He has 8% wins with a 39% in-the-money strike rate at Saratoga in 2025, according to Race Lens. John Velazquez, who was aboard the colt in his last three starts, has the call. Pass.

&nbs

Head to Head: Who will pass the Test at Saratoga?

Tue, 29 Jul 2025 09:52:47 GMT

On Saturday, eight talented 3-year-old fillies are in the Saratoga spotlight for the prestigious Grade 1, $500,000 Test Stakes.

Although it isn't a road to the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, 2023 Kentucky Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous used the Test as a springboard to clinch champion 3-year-old filly honors, even though she skipped the Breeders’ Cup.

Legends such as Gamine in 2020 and Covfefe in 2019 pulled off the coveted Test-Breeders’ Cup double during Eclipse Award-winning campaigns. The honor roll goes even deeper. Lady’s Secret, Go for Wand, You, and Indian Blessing are just a few who cemented their names in this race.

This year’s edition is carded as race 8 on Saturday’s stacked 13-race card, with post time set for 4:29 p.m. EDT.

We analyze the field’s speed, stamina and class to see which filly is ready to pass the Test.

Laurie	Ashley
1. Ragtime (4-1)
The promising, undefeated Ragtime began her career just two months ago with a professional 3 3/4 length victory at Saratoga over a full field of 11 other maidens, completing seven furlongs in 1:23.24 with a sharp 12.34-second final furlong. In her first start facing more experienced and older winners, the Bill Mott trainee ran away from the field by 4 1/2 lengths without being asked, timed in 1:23.18 for seven furlongs with an easy 12.53 final furlong. Union Rags’s daughter is out of the Grade 2-winning sprinter and black-type producer Burmilla. Ragtime’s second dam Nannerel was a multiple graded-winning sprinter-miler, and multiple Grade 1 placed, so there’s plenty of class in this filly’s family. Ragtime’s Brisnet Speed Rating improved to a 99, and she owns a pair of triple-digit late-pace ratings. Contender.	Trained by Bill Mott, Ragtime is 2-for-2 in her career, with both starts at Saratoga. She debuted a winner in a seven-furlong maiden event for 3-year-olds and up and won it by 3 3/4 lengths. Despite the carded conditions, there were no older runners in the field. One from that field was a next-out winner with a sharp drop in class and a move to Horseshoe Indianapolis. Three others hit the board next out at Saratoga with a fourth filly rounding out the superfecta in her next start, also at Saratoga. Ragtime’s second race also was seven furlongs and carded for 3-year-olds and upward. Four of six entrants were older runners, but it didn’t faze Ragtime, who won by an eased 4 1/4 lengths. Ragtime earned a 92 Brisnet Speed Rating for her debut and a 99 for her allowance win. The rail has been winning at a 22% clip. Regular rider Junior Alvarado has the mount. Contender.
2. Kilwin (6-1)
Kilwin made a successful transfer to dirt in the seven-furlong Leslie's Lady Overnight Stakes at Churchill, surprising the favorite, Grade 1-placed Vodka with a Twist, by 1 1/4 lengths under an aggressive hand ride. Kilwin pressed the pace, and dirt in her face wasn’t a bother as she completed seven furlongs in 1:21.61 with a 12.31 final furlong. She recorded a career-high 95 Brisnet rating with a 100 late-pace figure, second highest in the Test field. Conditioned by Rusty Arnold, Kilwin is the third black-type earner out of Spanish Star, who is an unraced half-sister to Belmont Stakes hero Sir Winston. Kilwin took a solo spin around Saratoga’s dirt course, completing four furlongs in 49.06. She handled the surface well in a routine maintenance drill, without excessive leg movement. Exotics.	Trained by Rusty Arnold, Kilwin began her career on turf, putting together a 5: 2-1-0 record on that surface, including winning the Untapable Stakes and finishing second in the Mamzelle (G3). Arnold switched the filly to dirt for the Leslie’s Lady Overnight Stakes last out after three straight turf losses, and Kilwin brought home the win by 1 1/4 lengths. She beat multiple Grade 1-placed and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Vodka With a Twist, along with a graded winner, a graded-stakes-placed runner, and two stakes winners. Kilwin received a 95 Brisnet Speed Rating for her lone dirt start and win. Jose Ortiz replaces Edgar Morales. Exotics.
3. Look Forward (8-1)
Look Forward stated that she’s a sprinter with her 1 1/4-length victory in the Eight Belles (G2). She’s undefeated at seven furlongs. Yes, she held on by a short neck for second place over Scottish Lassie in the Acorn (G1), but Look Forward had the better trip through slow fractions. Michael McCarthy gave Look Forward a pre-race bullet five-furlong breeze in 58.60 at Del Mar, but she was passed by the Doug O’Neill-trained Allowance class runner Corporal Violette. Look Forward’s final furlongs for the Test distance are slow and she is an upright mover, not stretching her neck out when she runs. This is usually related to a shorter shoulder angle. Look Forward’s speed ratings are improving, but her late-pace figures are some of the Test’s lowest. On the plus side, she’s a road warrior, is undefeated at seven furlongs and finished between two very good fillies in the Acorn, which is a traditional Test prep. Live long shot.	Trained by Michael McCarthy, Look Forward has done her best work at seven furlongs, winning the Santa Ynez and the Eight Belles (G2). Despite being best at shorter distances, Look Forward also has second-place finishes in the 1 1/16-mile Starlet (G2) and the 1 1/8-mile Acorn. Look Forward is the consummate road warrior with all seven career starts coming at seven tracks. This will be the first time she’s ever run back on the same track, coming in off that second-place finish in the Acorn. The Acorn form has so far been excellent. Third-place finisher Scottish Lassie demolished the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) field by 15 1/2 lengths, and last-place finisher Quickick got up by a nose in the Iowa Oaks. Look Forward has two bad races, the Honeybee (G3) and the Ashland (G1), but she had trouble at the start in both. Umberto Rispoli has the mount. Live long shot.
4. Cash Call (5-1)
Cash Call brings her three-race win streak to Saratoga and takes on more accomplished fillies. She’s never been tested at seven furlongs but has won at six and at 1 1/16 miles. A daughter of the second-ranked second-crop sire McKinzie, Cash Call is a half-sister to Strategic Dreams, a multiple stakes winner at seven furlongs. Their dam’s half-brother, Express Tour, captured the UAE Derby (G3) over Street Cry and multiple Grade 1-winning handicap veteran Lido Palace, so there’s back class in her pedigree. The Bob Baffert trainee’s late-pace figures are in the high 90s, and she had a sharp pre-race five-furlong work in 59.40. Exotics.	Trained by Bob Baffert, Cash Call is 5: 3-1-1 lifetime and enters on a three-race win streak, culminating with the Summertime Oaks (G3). Cash Call hasn’t beaten much of anything out west, but she does own a 100 Brisnet Speed Rating from her maiden-breaking win three starts back. Baffert has a 19% win rate with a 46% in-the-money clip when shipping into Saratoga over the last five years. Regular rider J.J. Hernandez appears to be remaining in California, so Flavien Prat will have the mount for the first time. Exotics.
5. Me and Molly McGee (8-1)
In her second start, the speedy Me and Molly McGee showe

Head to Head: Cases for 2 horses to win Crosby at Del Mar

Thu, 24 Jul 2025 15:53:39 GMT

Like the crooner’s signature hit “Pennies from Heaven,” Saturday’s $400,000 Bing Crosby Stakes promises to deliver something special when it launches the first of four U.S.-based Breeders’ Cup Sprint challenge-series events. This Grade 1 showdown has attracted a field brimming with talent.

The spotlight shines brightest on the budding rivalry between Roll On Big Joe and Dr. Venkman, who finished in that order in the Kelly’s Landing Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs last month. Waiting in the wings are seven other challengers, including Grade 2 winners World Record and Crazy Mayson, who hope to become the first out-of-town winners since 2007.

Set for six furlongs over Del Mar’s dirt surface, the Bing Crosby takes center stage as race 10 of 11 on the card, with post time scheduled for 9:32 p.m. EDT.

We dug deep into past performances, race replays, speed figures and track bias to bring you the sharpest angles and insights for Saturday’s sprint showdown.

Laurie	Ashley
1. Crazy Mason (6-1)
Crazy Mason ships in off a closing third-place finish in Saratoga’s True North last month. Crazy Mason broke slow and was outrun early through a 22.21 first quarter. But made a late move up the rail, splashing his way to a third-place finish behind Book’em Dano. The pretty gray 4-year-old loves Aqueduct and captured a trio of races there, including the Carter (G2). Although he won once at Saratoga and Tampa, the Greg Sacco trainee is winless elsewhere. On the plus side, Crazy Mason consistently posts triple-digit Brisnet late-pace figures, and his 123 rating earned in the True North is the highest in the Bing Crosby field. Additionally, he fired a pre-race four-furlong bullet in 47.40, the best of 98, at Saratoga Exotics.	Trained by Gregory Sacco, Crazy Mason was once a potential Triple Crown contender but has since been reinvented as a sprinter. Starting in November 2024, the 4-year-old has been racing exclusively in New York, where he won the Carter (G2) and was most recently third behind Book’em Danno in the True North (G3). Crazy Mason was assigned a 100 Brisnet speed rating for his Carter (G2) win, a number that dropped three points in the True North (G3). Sacco has a 4% win rate with 38% in-the-money in graded stakes over the last five years. Those numbers leap to 33% and 67% over the last year, thanks to Crazy Mason. However, Sacco is 0% across the board when shipping into California during the previous five years. Christopher Elliott, who takes over from Manny Franco, has never won a graded stakes race. Pass.
2. Dr. Venkman (4-1)
Dr. Venkman loves Del Mar. He slimed the field by a length in the San Diego Handicap (G2) but found 1 1/4 miles too far in the Pacific Classic. In a recent pair of second-place finishes, Dr. Venkman bested Smooth Cruisein by 4 1/4 lengths in the Triple Bed and closed within 3/4 lengths of Roll On Big Joe in the Kelly’s Landing (G3). The Mark Glatt trainee zaps double-digit speed ratings at Del Mar and has tactical speed. Contender.	Trained by Mark Glatt, Dr. Venkman enters off a second-place finish to Roll On Big Joe in the Kelly’s Landing (G3) at Churchill Downs. He was also second in the Triple Bend (G3) in what was his first start since running fourth in the Pacific Classic (G1) in August 2024. Glatt had attempted to stretch the gelding out last year, and Dr. Venkman won the San Diego Handicap (G2). Previously, he was an even fourth in the Pacific Classic (G1). Glatt brought him back in sprints for this year. Dr Venkman never has raced at six furlongs but has plenty of experience at 6 1/2 and seven furlongs and has never been out of the exacta, except in the Pacific Classic (G1). Dr. Venkman can improve third off the layoff, and Glatt has 19% wins with a 60% in-the-money rate with that angle over the last five years, per Race Lens. Regular rider Antonio Fresu has the mount. Contender.
3. Hejazi (7-2)
This $3.55 million 2-year-old is camera shy. The multiple Grade 1-placed Hejazi has flashed talent here, but he is a polite horse and lets others go first. In an Allowance Optional Claiming event at Santa Anita last month, Hejazi dueled down the lane with Mbagnick but backed off a half-length. The Bob Baffert trainee does his best work as a pacesetter. Exotics.	Trained by Bob Baffert, Hejazi was most recently second to Mbagnick in an optional claimer. Once a highly regarded Triple Crown prospect, Hejazi has thus far had an underwhelming and slightly bizarre career. He dropped off the radar following a fourth-place finish in the Fred W. Hooper (G3) at Gulfstream Park in January 2024. So, the aforementioned allowance race at Santa Anita was his first start in 16 1/2 months. Hejazi has just two wins from 10 career starts, but has never finished outside the trifecta in a sprint race. He is eligible to improve second off the layoff, and Baffert has 26% wins with a 63% in-the-money clip over the last year with that angle. J.J. Hernandez has the mount. Exotics.
4. Smooth Cruisein (20-1)
After a failed experiment at longer distances, Smooth Cruisein cuts back to six furlongs, where he’s undefeated. The 3-year-old son of Girvin ran out of oats in the seven-furlong Triple Bend and finished a well-beaten third. The Karen Headley trainee faces his more accomplished elders off a 56-day layoff and must prove he can run with the big boys. Pass.	Trained by Karen Headley, lightly race

Head to Head: Preakness rivals face off in Haskell Stakes

Thu, 17 Jul 2025 09:46:13 GMT

Saturday's $1 million Grade 1 Haskell Stakes is Monmouth Park's crown jewel for 3-year-old males. The 1 1/8-mile contest is a Breeders' Cup qualifier, offering a spot in the starting gate of the 2025 Breeders' Cup Classic.

The Haskell also bridges the gap between the Triple Crown series and the Travers Stakes (G1), also known as the midsummer derby.

The Haskell has a rich history, producing 11 winners who went on to win championship titles as the best 3-year-old colt or filly. Five also earned horse of the year honors.

Triple Crown contenders often excel in the Haskell, and the roll call of winners includes American Pharoah, Big Brown, Rachel Alexandra, Authentic, Good Magic and Dornoch.

This year's Haskell field drew eight colts and geldings, including the Preakness hero Journalism. His rivals include Preakness runners-up Gosger and Goal Oriented.

Featured as race 12 of 14, the Haskell Stakes has a post time of 5:45 p.m. EDT

We gather, process and distribute our Haskell picks.

Laurie	Ashley
1. Bracket Buster (10-1)
Monmouth's Pegasus Stakes was a slam dunk for Bracket Buster, who scored by a blowout seven lengths. The Vickie Oliver trainee has a clear pattern of rebounding every other race. He couldn't hold off Gosger during a "rebound" race cycle in the Lexington (G3), and struggled on the defensive end against Goal Oriented, beaten a dozen lengths. I predict another double-digit loss. Pass.	Trained by Victoria Oliver, Bracket Buster was an excellent second to Gosger in the Lexington off a 6 1/2 month layoff. He ran poorly on the Kentucky Derby undercard, which could be attributed to the sloppy conditions. But he bounced back to win the Pegasus Stakes by seven lengths in the slop over runner-up Wildncrazynight. It was a career-best effort, earning a 96 Brisnet Speed Rating. Oliver has just 2% wins with an 18% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years, according to Race Lens. John Velazquez has the mount. Exotics.
2. Journalism (4-5)
What can I write about Journalism that hasn't already been written or said? He's the second-best 3-year-old colt in the nation, and he's crazy smart and athletic. The only concern is how much is left in the tank. Five starts, including rough trips in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Preakness, plus tussling with Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. Also toss in three cross-country trips. Mike McCarthy gave Journalism a pre-race six-furlong breeze in 1:12 in company with the older allowance-class gelding Phosphorescence, who was overmatched. Win contender.	Trained by Mike McCarthy and ridden by regular jockey Umberto Rispoli, Journalism gets unintended class relief after running in all three legs of the Triple Crown. To recap, he was second in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont to Sovereignty and won the Preakness by a half length over runner-up Gosger. Journalism has posted five straight triple-digit Brisnet Speed Ratings. There’s really nothing else to say. One to beat.
3. Wildncrazynight (30-1)
Wildncrazynight likes Monmouth. But he was no match for Bracket Buster, finishing a distant second in the Pegasus Stakes. That's about all I have to say about him. Pass.	Trained by Dan Ward, Wildncrazynight enters off a runner-up effort to Bracket Buster in the Pegasus Stakes, the local Haskell prep. The 3-year-old gelding has only two career wins, one at Delaware Park and the other in a New Jersey-bred allowance race at Monmouth. Ward wintered him at Oaklawn, where he went 5: 0-1-0. Ward has 0% wins with a 33% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last five years. Regular jockey Isaac Castillo retains the mount. Pass.
4. Burnham Square (5-1)
Burnham Square made headlines earlier this year at Gulfstream Park, blowing away a field of maidens by nine lengths, then besting eventual Florida Derby (G1) winner Tappan Street by 1 3/4 lengths in the Holy Bull (G3). He cemented his Kentucky Derby prospects in the Blue Grass (G1), staking a quick pace before nailing the distance-challenged East Avenue on the wire. The Ian Wilkes trainee had a rough trip and wasn't disgraced by his sixth-place finish in the Derby. Burnham Square faced three rivals, including East Avenue, in the Matt Winn (G3). He was closer than usual, but East Avenue set easy early fractions, and nobody was going to pass him. Burnham Square might get a lively pace to chase and is worth an exotics look.	Trained by Ian Wilkes, Holy Bull and Blue Grass winner Burnham Square enters off a runner-up effort in the Matt Winn. He earned a career-best 101 in the Holy Bull and brought in a respectable 96 last out in the Matt Winn. Brian Hernandez Jr., who’s been aboard in the gelding’s last three starts, has the return call. Exotics.
5. National Law (20-1)
National Law ran one of the worst races I've ever seen when breaking his maiden at Parx. He never got out of a slow gallop despite encouragement, was all over the track and veered so close to the outer rail that the jock could have grabbed a beer from a rail bird. Despite a competitor on the inner rail giving it all he had, National Law galloped erratically under the wire 1 1/2 lengths in front. In his next start, this time at Pimlico, the pretty gray colt broke slowly and hit the starting gate. He was climbing at the back of the pack with very high knee action. To his credit, National Law picked off runners and won by a half-length while still running erratically in the stretch. The Jorge Duarte Jr. trainee was no factor in the Pegasus Stakes. National Law moves like a turf horse and has an excellent turf pedigree. His half-sister, Family Way, is a multiple Grade 1-placed turf router. His dam, a Giant's Causeway mare, is half to multiple Group 1 winner and sire, Caravaggio. Additionally, most of National Law's half-siblings are turf horses. Pass.	Trained by Jorge Duarte Jr., National Law gave racing fans his best Spicer Cub impression in two of his last three starts. He did win those two races, but it wasn’t pretty. He comes in off a fourth-place finish in the Pegasus Stakes behind Bracket Buster and Wildncrazynight. His speed ratings this year have been decent but not good enough to compete with the best in the field. Duarte has 0% wins with a 22% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the mount. Pass.
6. Gosger (9-2)
In his third career start, the well-bred Gosger hit a home run in the Lexington by a couple of lengths over Bracket Buster. He lived up to the potential when facing more accomplished foes in the Preakness and almost upset the applecart. The Brendan Walsh trainee had his five-length lead whittled down with each stride as Journalism rolled through the stretch to nip Gosger by a half-length. The pretty gray colt earned a career-best 106 Brisnet Speed Rating and a 96 late-pace figure. He has recorded steady works at Churchill and could pull the upset. Contender.	Trained by Brendan Walsh, Gosger is a late arrival on the scene, but he appeared with a bang. The son of Nyquist won the Lexington in his third start, but it’s in the Preakness that he really made a statement. After pressing

Head to Head: Thrilling matchup in Saratoga's CCA Oaks

Tue, 15 Jul 2025 21:15:54 GMT

Saturday’s Grade 1, $500,000 Coaching Club American Oaks Invitational at Saratoga promises a thrilling showdown as 2-year-old champion filly Immersive faces off against her emerging rival, Take Charge Milady.

Although not a challenge contest for the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Distaff, this historic race, a cornerstone of the 3-year-old filly division, has been a proving ground for elite talent. Past winners include champion fillies Thorpedo Anna, Nest, Songbird, Abel Tasman and Monomoy Girl, all of whom won or placed in the Distaff.

The CCA Oaks is spotlighted as race 10 of 12, with a 5:38 p.m. EDT post time. The track is expected to be fast.

We agree on the main contenders, but not the finishing order.

Laurie	Ashley
1. Immersive
After an injury and extended layoff, Last year’s 2-year-old champ Immersive surfaced in the Monomoy Girl. She was stuck on the inside and was boxed in tight with Anna’s Promise in front and Take Charge Milady directly next to her. Full of run before the turn, Immersive had to steady slightly and back off with nowhere to go. She bulled her way through a narrow opening on the turn, bumping with Anna’s Promise, and fought through the lane with Take Charge Milady. Immersive suffered her first career defeat, bested by Take Charge Milady, who had the benefit of current form and a much better trip. Conditioned by Brad Cox, Immersive earned an 85 Brisnet Speed Rating. She worked a pre-race bullet five furlongs in 59.20 seconds and should be ready to resume her winning ways. Contender.	Trained by Brad Cox, champion Immersive was an excellent second in her return off a 7 1/2-month layoff. She missed by a neck to Take Charge Milady in the Monomoy Girl after getting bottled up on the inside. She battled Take Charge Milady all the way down the stretch, but that rival was determined to cross the wire first. Immersive received just an 85 Brisnet Speed Rating. Cox has 27% wins with a 60% in-the-money rate with runners second off the layoff. Immersive is 2-for-2 at Saratoga and gets her regular jockey Manny Franco. One to beat.
2. Sweet Seraphine
Sweet Seraphine takes on more accomplished foes and adds distance. In a thrilling edition of the Wilton Stakes at Aqueduct, facing winners for the first time, Sweet Seraphine stumbled at the break and settled several lengths off a sharp early pace. After going five wide around the turn, Sweet Seraphine was green down the lane on the wrong lead and drifting until she got closer to her rivals and found determination. The Cherie DeVaux trainee got up in the final strides to nail Dry Powder by a head. Sweet Seraphine completed a mile in 1:35.94 with a 13.32 final furlong. Her speed rating dropped four points in her second start off the layoff, yet there’s no denying her courage. Quality Road’s daughter is half to Grade 3-winning miler Moonlight d’Oro, and champion 3-year-old filly and 2017 CCA Oaks heroine Abel Tasman is a distant relative. Sweet Seraphine has tactical speed and would benefit from a pace meltdown. But she’s facing more accomplished foes while adding distance. Pass.	Trained by Cherie DeVaux, Sweet Seraphine debuted third in August 2024 and then disappeared, resurfacing at Churchill Downs in May of this year. The one-mile event for maidens was written for 3-year-olds and upward, but in reality was composed of all 3-year-olds except one. Sweet Seraphine triumphed by a nose and then doubled down by winning the Wilton Stakes next out by a head over Dry Powder. Sweet Seraphine’s best Brisnet Speed Rating is the 86 she received when breaking her maiden. Jose Ortiz has the return call. Pass.
3. Scottish Lassie
The highlight of Scottish Lassie’s career was earning her only victory in the Frizette Stakes (G1). This year, she tired to third behind Dry Powder in a one-mile optional claimer before taking on graded-stakes fillies in the Acorn (G1). After going six wide around the turn, Scottish Lassie trudged her way down the sloppy track to just miss second place to Grade 2 winner Look Forward. The Jorge Abreu trainee’s speed rating jumped 21 points in her second start off the layoff. She’s been bested by half the CCA Oaks field but can be counted on for a lower exotics placing.	Trained by Jorge Abreu, Scottish Lassie was third on debut but broke her maiden at second asking when scampering to a nine-length demolition job in the Frizette. She finished her juvenile campaign with a fourth-place run, beaten by seven lengths, behind winner Immersive in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Scottish Lassie has raced just twice this year after receiving a six-month vacation. She finished third in an optional claimer in her 2025 bow and most recently was third in the Acorn, 3 1/4 lengths behind winner La Cara. She earned a career best 97 Brisnet Speed Rating in the Acorn. Abreu has 19% wins with a 25% in-the-money rate with runners third off the layoff. Joel Rosario has the mount. Exotics.
4. Take Charge Milady
Take Charge Milady renews her budding rivalry with Immersive. She has made seven starts this year and finished out of the money twice, with the legitimate excuse of troubled trips. Otherwise, she has been the model of consistency having won or placed in five starts. Ken McPeek’s charge worked a pre-race bullet four furlongs in 47 over Saratoga’s training track and has tactical speed. Contender.	Trained by Kenny McPeek, Take Charge Milady enters off a neck victory in the Monomoy Girl over returning champion Immersive. The daughter of Take Charge Indy has blown hot and cold all season. She won a maiden race and the Martha Washington Stakes by a combined 9 3/4 lengths in her first two starts of 2025. She then bombed in the Honeybee (G3), finishing 10th, 32 1/2 lengths behind the winner. Then she second, 1 1/4 lengths behind winner La Cara, in the Ashland (G1) before throwing another clunker, finishing 12th in the Kentucky Oaks. The Monomoy Girl was her most recent race. Depending on which version of Take Charge Milady shows up, she could be a legitimate win threat or a complete toss. She’s the only filly who has beaten Immersive, but she had racing fitness on her side that day. Kendrick Carmouche has the call. Exotics.
5. Dry Powder
The speedy Dry Powder fought through quick early fractions in the Wilton Stakes but couldn’t hold off Sweet Seraphine. The effort took a toll, and Dry Powder earned a 76 late-pace figure, the lowest in the CCA Oaks field. Chad Summers gave Gun Runner’s daughter a bullet five-furlong move in 1:00, but she’ll have to face the speedy and classy La Cara to her outside. Pass.	Trained by Chad Summers, Dry Powder enters off a head loss to Sweet Seraphine in the Wilton Stakes. Two starts back she was second to Scottish Lassie’s third in an optional claimer. Dry Powder’s speed figures need a boost if she’s to compete with the best in this field. Jose Lezcano has the mount. Pass.
6. La Cara
Other than a ninth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks after bumping and having to steady, La Cara hasn’t placed worse than second, besting Take Charge Milady and Scottish Lassie along the way. The Grade 1 heroine can carry her speed 1 1/8 miles and is proven at Saratoga. Mark Casse gave her a second-to-last bullet fo

Head to Head: Scouting future stars in Saratoga's Sanford

Thu, 03 Jul 2025 11:32:53 GMT

Like Friday’s Debutante Stakes for 2-year-old fillies, the $175,000, Grade 3 Sanford Stakes for 2-year-olds attracted a small field of six.

Contested at six furlongs over Saratoga’s main track, the Sanford kicks off New York’s graded-stakes series for 2-year-olds. The prestigious Sanford Stakes has launched the careers of greats such as Afleet Alex, Scat Daddy, and Triple Crown champ Affirmed.

Mark Casse has two shots to win with impressive debut winner Strategic Risk and Tremont Stakes runner-up Blinging It Back. Steve Asmussen counters with Obliteration, and Jena Antonucci, Kevin Rice and Whit Beckman send out the rest of the field.

The Sanford is the third race on Saturday’s 12-race card and has a post time of 1:40 p.m. EDT. The holiday weekend is expected to be a pleasant one, with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-80s.

We delve into the pedigrees, race replays, statistics and works to find our top picks.

Laurie	Ashley
1. Imagine John
In his Saratoga debut, Imagine John made a five-wide bid around the far turn but was mentally caught up fighting with the inside horse. They finished evenly, with Imagine John edging clear late. The two rivals who finished ahead of him were more experienced. Imagine John earned a 72 Brisnet Speed Rating with an 81 late-pace figure, so there’s room to improve. Macleans Music’s son has precocious Canadian black type in his pedigree. His dam and second dam are stakes-placed juveniles. The third generation includes multiple graded-winning turfer River Seven, who won a Grade 3 as a juvenile. Jena Antonucci gave Imagine John a sharp five-furlong breeze in 59.47 seconds, third-best of seven. The work was quicker than previous moves, which could set up Imagine John for an improved performance. An exotics placing is possible.	Trained by Jena Antonucci, Imagine John still has his maiden status off a third-place debut at Saratoga on June 8. Because of the recency of that race, none in the field has made a subsequent start. It was a decent effort, but the 72 Brisnet Speed Rating the colt received is one of the lowest numbers in the field. Antonucci is winless with a 20% in-the-money clip in stakes races and 2% wins with an 18% in-the-money clip with 2-year-olds in the last year. She also has 9% wins with a 31% in-the-money rate with runners racing off an eight- to 30-day turnaround. Javier Castellano has the mount. Exotics.
2. Obliteration
Living up to his name in his Churchill Downs debut, Obliteration cleared the field by 7 1/2 lengths under a hand ride. He completed 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:03.32 with a 6.16-second final half-furlong. Obliteration recorded an 83 speed rating with an 87 late-pace figure while not being asked for his best. Violence’s son is half to a trio of stakes-winning sprinters, Big and Classy, Sassy Beast and Pure Class, plus stakes-placed Family Biz. The class continues in the second generation, led by Grade 3-winning sprinter Just Grazed Me. Steve Asmussen gave Obliteration a three-furlong spin around Saratoga’s main track to get him acclimated. Contender.	Trained by Steve Asmussen, aptly named Obliteration dominated his rivals by 7 1/2 lengths in his debut. That race was on June 12, and the one colt who has made another start finished off the board. Obliteration earned a field-high 91 Equibase speed figure and an 83 Brisnet Speed Rating for his debut. Flavien Prat has the mount. Contender.
3. Honey Dutch
A $33,000 Keeneland November yearling, Honey Dutch shipped to Saratoga from Whit Beckman’s Keenland base to take on more experienced rivals in his first start. By first-crop sire and 2021 Horse of the Year Knicks Go, Honey Dutch is out of the winning Tiznow mare Ms V Time. His second dam, West Coast Belle, captured the Golden Rod (G2), and owns the only black-type earnings in three generations. Honey Duch has Rasmussen Factor Breeding, meaning he's inbred to a superior dam through siblings in five generations, to Cee’s Song. She is Tiznow’s dam, and the stallion’s full sister Tizso is Paynter’s dam. Paynter is Knicks Go’s sire. In his slow but steady morning works, Honey Dutch would sit on the flank of his workmates and gradually draw even down the stretch. He was under a tight hold without being asked and quickened near the wire when the rider let out a notch. The pretty gray colt has potential, but shipping and facing winners for his first start is a lot to ask. Pass.	Trained by Whit Beckman, Honey Dutch will be making his career debut. Beckman has just 12% wins with a 21% in-the-money clip with 2-year-old first-time starters in the last five years. He does have a good strike rate in stakes races, however, with 21% wins and a 53% in-the-money clip over the last year. Manny Franco has the mount. Pass.
4. Blinging It Back
Still a maiden, Blinging It Back improved in the 5 1/2-furlong Tremont Stakes, his second start. He chased the winner around the Monmouth oval and was slightly green in the stretch. He was bested 3 1/2 lengths but was 7 3/4 lengths clear of Romeo. That one returned to capture the Bashford Manor (G3) by 3 3/4 lengths. The Mark Casse trainee’s speed rating improved 29 points to 99, with an 87 late-pace figure. By Volatile, fifth on the second-crop sire board, Blinging It Back is half to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Ima Discreet Lady, veteran of 48 races who earned over $700,000. Two other half-siblings, I Know Map and Ima Sky Traveler, are stakes placed, and their dam, Ima Three Blinger was multiple stakes placed at 2. The pretty gray Blinging It Back had a 48.55 pre-race, four-furlong work in company with Ewing, a maiden son of Knicks Go who was a $585,000 OBS April purchase. The pair moved as a team, neither asked. But Blinging It Back kept his head and neck in front, a good sign. Contender.	Trained by Mark Casse, Blinging It Back is still a maiden after two starts. He was third on debut at Churchill Downs. The colt tossed his head at the break and was away last. He then put in a huge rally but was very green in the stretch. From about five wide off the turn, Blinging It Back eventually ended up down on the rail while initially hanging on the wrong lead. Once on the rail, he put in one final surge to just miss second place by a head. Blinging It Back was much more professional in the Tremont Stakes, with Jose Ortiz taking a firmer hand in keeping him straight. But there just was no beating the filly Mythical that day. Blinging It Back received an excellent 99 Brisnet Speed Rating in defeat. Ortiz, who clearly has a good read on this colt, has the call. Contender.
5. Strategic Risk
Strategic Risk quarterhorsed out of the gate in his debut at Gulfstream against state-bred maidens, and that was the end of the race. He opened up with each stride under a hand ride in basically a paid workout. The Mark Casse trainee completed five furlongs in 58.29 seconds, with an 11.96-second final furlong. He earned an 85 speed rating with an 88 late-pace figure, which is the Sanford field’s highest. By Grade 1 winner Noble Bird, Strategic Risk’s full sister Strategic Bird is a multiple stakes winner. She and their full brother Just Relax earned black type as juveniles. Second dam Strategy also placed as a j

Head to Head: Deep talent in Saratoga's Belmont Oaks

Wed, 02 Jul 2025 19:05:37 GMT

Saturday’s $500,000 Grade 1 Belmont Oaks over the Saratoga lawn features a compact but classy field of seven 3-year-old fillies.

Though short on numbers, this group brings plenty of backstory. Six of the seven already have tangled with at least two of their rivals, some in multiple clashes.

Nitrogen enters with a six-race win streak, but Fionn, whose own streak was halted by Nitrogen last out, is back for revenge.

The 1 1/8-mile Belmont Oaks is race 11 of 12, with a 6:13 p.m. EDT post time.

We see plenty of upside in this deep field with no easy toss-outs.

Laurie	Ashley
1. Warming
The most lightly raced filly in the field with three starts under her girth, Warming captured her debut but didn’t return to the races until a closing finish in the Take The A Train Stakes. She obviously needed the start as she finished fifth. Warming gave a heart-pounding performance in her latest start, making a late run to grab the victory by a neck in a 1 1/16-mile optional claiming event at Delaware. The Graham Motion trainee was timed in 1:43.54 with a quick 6.04-second final half-furlong. Her Brisnet Speed Rating decreased six points in her second start, and she returns 22 days later. On a positive note, she should love the extra distance. Warming is taking on more experienced graded winners and needs to improve to be a factor. Pass.	Trained by Graham Motion, Warming enters off a neck victory in a 1 1/16-mile optional claimer at Delaware Park. Two starts back, she was fifth in the six-furlong Take The A Train Stakes. It was a better effort than it sounds, as it was a blanket finish that saw the top five cross the wire within 3/4 length of each other. Warming also was forced to alter course twice in the stretch. Her numbers aren’t the best, but she’s a game filly with a good turn of foot. She does come in on a three-week turnaround, however, and Motion is 13% wins with a 45% in-the-money rate with that angle. Manny Franco has the call. Pass.
2. Opulent Restraint
Opulent Restraint is two bumps and a neck from being undefeated. In her first start as a 3-year-old, the pretty gray filly broke in and bumped a rival. She showed early interest before fading to fourth behind Nitrogen. The Chad Brown trainee made the pace in the one-mile Memories of Silver. She fought down the lane and came back on the inside, losing by a neck, but besting Virgin Colada by 1 1/2 lengths. Opulent Restraint’s speed ratings have risen in each start, topping out at 91. However, her late-pace figures are at the lower end of the Oaks scale. Pass.	Trained by Chad Brown, Opulent Restraint was last seen finishing second by a neck and 1 1/2 lengths ahead of Virgin Colada in the Memories of Silver Stakes. She broke her maiden in her second start at Saratoga and closed out her juvenile year with a nose victory in the Chelsey Flower Stakes. She did face undefeated Nitrogen earlier this year in the Florida Oaks (G3), finishing fourth after encountering trouble in the race. Joel Rosario has the mount. Exotics.
3. Totally Justified
In her second start off the layoff in the Regret Stakes (G3), Totally Justified looked like the winner until late stretch when Fionn nipped her on the wire by a half-length. That was the second time her rival beat her. The half-sister to multiple Grade 2 turf router Masteroffoxhounds has finished behind Nitrogen and May Day Ready but has beaten Virgin Colada. Still, the Rusty Arnold trainee should improve in her second start off the layoff and is worth an exotics look.	Trained by Rusty Arnold, Totally Justified enters off a half-length loss to Fionn in the Regret (G3). She’s been hit or miss throughout her career. She also has a nose loss to May Day Ready in the Jessamine (G2) back in October, but then was eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and fifth in the Appalachian (G2). Along with Fionn and May Day Ready, Nitrogen has also outfinished this filly. Luis Saez gets the return call. Pass.
4. Virgin Colada
Virgin Colada’s only off-the-board performance was a troubled finish in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. In her seasonal debut, she made a late move in the Memories of Silver Stakes but ran out of real estate, finishing 1 1/2 lengths behind stablemate Opulent Restraint. Virgin Colada earned a career-best 90 speed rating and can improve off the layoff. Her dam is a half-sister to 2018 Belmont Derby hero Catholic Boy. Exotics.	Also from the Chad Brown barn, Virgin Colada was most recently third in the Memories of Silver Stakes. She’s Grade 2 placed via a runner-up effort in the Miss Grillo back in October, but then turned around and ran 13th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. The Memories of Silver was her first start of the year, so she has plenty of room to improve here. Brown has 19% wins with a 62% in-the-money clip with runners second off the layoff. Irad Ortiz Jr. takes over from Flavien Prat. Exotics.
5. Fionn
Fionn gets a chance to avenge her loss to Nitrogen, who marred Fionn’s chances of a four-race win streak by 3 1/2 lengths in the Appalachian Stakes (G2). The Brad Cox trainee resumed her winning ways in the Regret Stakes, ruining Totally Justified’s day. Fionn’s Brisnet ratings have improved in every outing, and her 90 late pace figure is the field’s second-highest. Contender.	Trained by Brad Cox, Fionn has never been out of the trifecta in her career. She enters off a victory in the Regret (G3) and also counts a win in the Allen Black Cat LaCombe Memorial Stakes to her name. She gave a valiant effort against Nitrogen in the Appalachian (G2) but could not run that one down. Flavien Prat takes over from Florent Geroux. Contender.
6. May Day Ready
Just like her dam Nemoralia, who was third in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, May Day Ready was one of last year’s best 2-year-old turf fillies; her only U.S.-based loss was by 1 1/2 lengths second to Lake Victoria in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf after a troubled trip. After a disastrous trip to Japan, where she placed 13th in the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies (G1), May Day Ready took a vacation before appearing in the off-the-turf Wonder Again (G3) against Nitrogen, whom she beat in the Juvenile Fillies. May Day Ready tried her best but got a mud bath, finishing 25 lengths behind Nitrogen. Back on the lawn, May Day Ready is set to prove she’s just as good at 3 as she was at 2. Contender.	Trained by Joseph Lee, May Day Ready began her career with three straight wins, including the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies and the Jessamine (G2). She was also an excellent second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Lee shipped her to Japan for the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies (G1) to close out her 2-year-old campaign, but she could only muster 13th of 18, beaten by eight lengths. She made her 2025 debut June 7 in the Wonder Again, which was taken off the turf and run in the slop. She finished last of three, beaten 25 1/2 lengths by Nitrogen. I’ll put a line through that effort because of the six-month layoff and the surface change. Lee has 21% wins with a 43% in-the-money clip with runners second off the layoff in the last five years. Regular jock Frankie Dettori has the call. Contender.
7. Nitrogen
The second stakes winner in her imm

Head to Head: Getting a lock on Saratoga's Suburban Stakes

Tue, 01 Jul 2025 11:29:40 GMT

Friday’s Grade 2, $400,000 Suburban Stakes at Saratoga drew a battle-tested field of eight older dirt routers, including multiple Grade 1 hero Locked and possibly Bendoog, second in last year’s Suburban.

Run at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles, the Suburban is a key steppingstone to the Whitney (G1) in early August, so we’ll get a preview of some possible Grade 1 contenders.

The Suburban is carded as race 10 of 11 with a post time of 6:19 p.m. EDT.

We are united on who hits the wire first, but our exotic tickets tell very different stories.

Laurie	Ashley
1. Phileas Fogg
Phileas Fogg has flourished since joining Gustavo Rodriguez’s barn last August. He reeled off four victories, was second by a neck, then outclassed rivals in the 1 1/4-mile Excelsior Stakes. Less than 80 days later in his first graded attempt, Phileas Fogg sailed through the stretch in the Pimlico Special (G3) but couldn’t shake Awesome Aaron, who inched clear by 3/4 length, both beating San Siro, who checked in a distant fourth. The Rodriguez trainee’s Brisnet Speed Satings have climbed to 104, and his late-pace figures are competitive. Phileas Fogg owns a pair of recent five-furlong bullets and appears ready for another step up in class. Exotics.	Trained by Gustavo Rodriguez, Phileas Fogg has finished in the exacta 12 times in 17 career starts. He has spent most of his career racing in the claiming and allowance ranks, with a stakes appearance here and there. He notched his second stakes victory this year when winning the 1 1/4-mile Excelsior Stakes by 5 1/4 lengths. He was most recently second by 3/4 length to Awesome Aaron in the Pimlico Special (G3). Phileas Fogg received back-to-back 104 Brisnet Speed Ratings for his Excelsior and Pimlico Special (G3) efforts. Rodriguez hasn’t had many graded-stakes starters, but he means business when he does send one out. Kendrick Carmouche has the mount. Exotics.
2. Disarm
No stranger to Saratoga, Disarm was a cut below the best in four graded attempts. The last time he won a graded race was in 2023. In his latest effort, the Steve Asmussen trainee closed for a distant fourth place in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). Pass.	Trained by Steve Asmussen, Disarm was most recently seen finishing fourth in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). Oaklawn Handicap winner First Mission ran third in the Stephen Foster (G1) next out, runner-up Banishing was second in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) in his next start, and third-place finisher Skippylongstocking won the Hollywood Gold Cup (G2) next out. In his only other start this year, Disarm beat Bendoog by a neck in an optional claimer. Disarm has raced against the best runners these last few years but has only the 2023 Matt Winn (G3) to his name, graded-stakes wise. Joel Rosario has the mount. Contender.
3. San Siro
Brendan Walsh brought San Siro along patiently through his conditions and was rewarded in April with a second-place finish in the Ben Ali (G3). But San Siro needed a last-minute shoe repair in the paddock before the Pimlico Special. He had a wide trip and gained a little ground to finish a distant fourth. The effort earned him a career-best 98 Brisnet rating, but this 4-year-old needs to improve further to be competitive. Pass.	Trained by Brendan Walsh, San Siro enters off a fourth-place finish in the Pimlico Special after having a shoe repair in the paddock prior to the race. San Siro also ran fourth in the New Orleans Classic (G2) and second in the Ben Ali (G3) this year. This gelding has a prior win at the Suburban distance of 1 1/4 miles, but he’s light on class compared to some of the others in this field. Luis Saez has the mount. Pass.
4. Locked
Locked stands head and withers above the Suburban field as the only two-time Grade 1 hero in the field. Remarkably consistent, Locked’s fourth-place finish in the Alysheba (G2) on Kentucky Oaks day was his only off-the-board placing. He took the long way around, made a belated five-wide move and was left with too much to do. The Todd Pletcher trainee recorded four consecutive triple-digit late-pace figures and is the one to beat. Contender.	Trained by Todd Pletcher, Locked enters off fourth place finish in the Alysheba (G2) despite dominating his foes in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) in his prior start. I’m willing to let Alysheba (G2) slide, as there wasn’t much pace for Locked to run at, and he was coming on late. Jose Ortiz will get the leg up. Contender.
5. Bendoog
The 6-year-old Bendoog may scratch from the Suburban, since he recorded a four-furlong breeze over Saratoga’s training track on Monday. If he does run, Bendoog returns for another shot at the Suburban after missing by a half-length last year. Since last October, the Bill Mott trainee had a frustrating run of losses by a nose or neck. He finally broke through in an optional-claimer event in May. Mott gave Bendoog a bullet four-furlong move on June 22. If he runs, use him in the exotics.	Trained by Bill Mott, Bendoog began his career in Dubai but was transferred overseas following a sixth-place finish in the 2023 Dubai World Cup (G1). Since his arrival, Bendoog has competed in only three stakes races, finishing second in last year’s edition of the Suburban (G2) and this year’s American Pharoah Overnight Stakes while running sixth of 10 in the 2024 Charles Town Classic (G2). Put a line through the Charles Town Classic, as not every horse takes to the West Virginia bullring. Bendoog also gets a pass for the American Pharoah Overnight. That stretch run was a bit of a mess with both Bishops Bay and Full Screen appearing to drift out before Bendoog dove for the rail in mid-stretch. It did end up being a productive race, however, with Bishops Bay, Liberal Arts and Honor Marie all winning stakes races next out. Bendoog himself came back to win an optional claimer in his next start. Jose Lezcano has the call. Exotics.
6. Honor Marie
Honor Marie is searching for his level. He showed promise closing for second place in last year’s Louisiana Derby (G2), but was utterly outclassed in the classics and the Travers Stakes (G1). Honor Marie couldn’t keep up in the restricted America Pharoah Stakes, his first start as a 4-year-old, but captured the 1 1/2-mile Isaac Murphy Marathon in his second start off the layoff. This one-paced sort can run all day and needs a fast pace to do his best. Pass.	Trained by Whit Beckman, Honor Marie enters off a head victory in the 1 1/2-mile Isaac Murphy Marathon Stakes. This colt gave me fits last year with his inconsistency, but that is to be expected from a closer. Unfortunately, that inconsistency has carried over to this year, with Honor Marie finishing seventh in the American Pharoah Overnight Stakes prior to his last-out victory. Fitness could have been key, however, as the American Pharoah was his first start off a seven-month layoff. Ben Curtis has the return call. I’ve been burnt by this colt several times, so if he beats me here, so be it. Pass.
7. Antiquarian
Antiquarian’s only off-the-board finishes were in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby and the 1 1/4-mile Belmont at Saratoga last year. He broke through the gate before the Louisiana Derby, so he had an excuse. In the

Head to Head: 2-year-old fillies make stakes debut in Debutante

Fri, 27 Jun 2025 09:51:17 GMT

Sunday’s $200,000 listed Debutante Stakes on closing day at Churchill Downs offers 2-year-old fillies a chance to earn black-type status early in their careers.

The six-furlong event attracted nine 2-year-old fillies. Four are by first- or second-crop stallions hoping to add to their sire’s status.

Two of the last three winners of the Debutante, Brightwork in 2023 and Wonder Wheel in 2022, evolved into Grade 1 stakes winners. Wonder Wheel earned championship honors after capturing the Alcibiades and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Last year’s heroine, Vodka With a Twist, and Restless Rider in 2018, were second in the Breeders’ Cup.

The Debutante is billed as race seven of 11 with a 3:51 p.m. EDT post time.

We sort through past performances, race replays, statistics, pedigrees and more to find the winner.

Laurie	Ashley
1. Essential Coffee (3-1)
Essential Coffee was an impressive 8 1/2-length winner in her debut. Until she wasn’t. Around the first turn, Essential Coffee came over on Sapphire Beach, the horse to her inside, causing that one to steady hard. Sapphire Beach recovered and finished a distant second, but Essential Coffee was disqualified to second place. The Steve Asmussen trainee completed five furlongs in 58.53 seconds with a sharp 11.80 final furlong while not being pressured. She received an 83 Brisnet Speed Rating with an 87 late-pace figure. Nyquist’s daughter is half to Grade 3 winner Skinner, who was third in the 2022 Del Mar Futurity (G1) and is multiple graded-placed up to 1 1/8 miles. They are out of Winding Way, a Grade 3-winning sprinter. Essential Coffee posted a pair of moderate four-furlong breezes for the Debutante. Contender.	Trained by Steve Asmussen, Essential Coffee crossed the wire 8 1/2 lengths clear of runner-up Sapphire Beach but was disqualified to second because of interference in the stretch. In watching the replay, I’ve seen much worse than what I saw here that went unpunished. Sapphire Beach was never going to win that race, so to me, this was a huge disservice to Essential Coffee. Two fillies from that race have made subsequent starts, with neither hitting the board. Flavien Prat takes over from Keith Asmussen. Contender.
2. Vajra (15-1)
Vajra was cross-entered, but raced in a maiden special weight Friday instead.
3. Light Won Up (5-1)
Light Won Up did just that in her debut. She quarter-horsed out of the gate and dueled the entire way. She came in on her rival in the stretch, but once straightened out, pulled away by 1 1/4 lengths. The Doug O’Neill trainee completed 4 1/2 furlongs in 51.90, with a final half-furlong in 6.26. She earned a field-best 87 speed rating with an 86 late-pace figure. Light Won Up was flattered when runner-up La Ville Lumiere also a daughter of City of Light, returned to win and the third-place finisher returned to place second against La Ville Lumiere. City of Light’s daughter is out of the stakes-winning sprinter Factorofwon. The second generation includes the precocious Wildatlanticstorm, who won or placed in three stakes at 2, including the Springboard Mile. Light Won Up posted three quick post-race moves, including a second-to-last five furlongs in 1:00 in company with Cardinal Spirit, an older claiming-class gelding who was used as a rabbit. Light Won Up targeted her mate, and the pair galloped to the wire together as neither were asked to run. Light Won Up had a four-furlong solo gate work in 47.80 as a maintenance breeze. Although she’s shipping and taking on winners for the first time, Light Won Up’s professionalism and quick morning works make her a contender.	Trained by Doug O’Neill, Light Won Up ships in off a debut victory at Santa Anita on May 16. Runner-up La Ville Lumiere flattered her win by scoring next out herself, albeit on turf. Third-place finisher Velvet Dream also switched to turf and ran second to La Ville Lumiere in that same event. O’Neill is just 9% wins with a 27% in-the-money rate in Kentucky in the last five years. Antonio Fresu has the return call. Contender.
4. Americathegreat (7-2)
In her debut, Americathegreat broke a little slowly and was squeezed back to last. She was green and had to steady down the backstretch, leaving her 15 lengths behind the leaders. Americathegreat looked like an also-ran in the stretch, yet she mowed them down and gained with every stride on Color Comin’ In. Although she ran out of real estate, Americathegreat galloped far in front and completed her final furlong in 11.56. Conditioned by Mark Casse, Americathegreat earned a 75 speed rating and a 92 late-pace figure. Curlin’s daughter is a full sister to multiple Grade 3-winning router First Captain, who was a nose short in the Suburban (G2). Their Grade 3-winning dam America placed in the Mother Goose and Delaware Handicap, both Grade 1 events. America’s 3/4 sister bore CCA Oaks (G1) heroine Paris Lights, also by Curlin. Americathegreat posted a trio of works that were quicker than her pre-race moves. Her first breeze back was four furlongs in 47.20, fifth-best of 34 for the day. Contender.	Trained by Mark Casse, Americathegreat is a maiden after running second to Color Comin’ In in her debut. She was off slowly and trailed the field, spotting the pacesetters about 10 lengths. But she really kicked it into gear in the stretch, gaining ground to narrow Color Comin’ In’s clear advantage inside the final sixteenth. If she gets a clean break and a more forwardly placed running position, she could do some damage here. On the negative side of things, four fillies from this field have raced again, with just one hitting the board, at Presque Isle Downs no less. Jose Ortiz gets the return call. Contender.
5. Jaboss (20-1)
In her debut in a maiden claiming event, Jaboss broke slowly from post 1, which was a good thing, because she immediately ducked two paths to the right, imitating her sire’s style. She made a sustained rally and zipped around the corner into contention. Jaboss moved around the tiring pacesetter and was uneven, wavering between horses before sorting things out physically and mentally. She shook clear to win by 3 1/4 lengths and completed five furlongs in 58.59 with a 12.56 final furlong. The Chris Davis trainee earned a 78 speed rating with an 84 late-pace figure. By 2016 2-year-old champ and Bashford Manor hero Classic Empire, Jaboss is out of the winning Take Charge Indy mare, Indy Takes Charge, who is half to a stakes-winning sprinter. Jaboss paddles with her right fore. She posted a quick four-furlong gate work in 47.60, second best of 20. She’s turning around in just 11 days. Pass.	Trained by Christopher Davis, Jaboss debuted a winner in a five-furlong maiden claiming event over the Churchill Downs track. Equibase gave the filly a 69 and Brisnet assigned her a 78. That race was on June 18, meaning no one has made a start since then. But four of Jaboss’s five rivals had prior starts. Davis is 14% wins with a 36% in-the-money rate in non-graded stakes over the last five years. Sophie Doyle takes over from Jose Ortiz. Pass.
6. Mine Strike (15-1)
Making up six lengths in the stretch in her Gulfstream Park debut, Mine Strike made a last-to-fir