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HorseCenter: 5 Grade 1 races on Travers Stakes day

Thu, 21 Aug 2025 16:10:24 GMT

Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman analyze, handicap and offer suggested wagers for a blockbuster card Saturday at Saratoga. The anchor leg of a mandatory pay Pick 5 of all Grade 1 races is the 156th edition of the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes. Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes hero Sovereignty will be odds-on to add to his championship credentials.

Starting the sequence will be Thorpedo Anna as she is welcomed back to the Spa in the Personal Ensign Stakes (G1). The reigning horse of the year will go favored against a field of fillies and mares that includes four other Grade 1 winners. A six-time Grade 1 winner herself, the daughter of Fast Anna will break from the outside post 7 in her first race at Saratoga since her memorable near-miss in last summer’s Travers.

The other three Grade 1 stakes on Saturday at Saratoga will all be run at seven furlongs, and each features a deep cast of talented runners. In the two male races, Book’em Danno will be in search of a third straight graded-stakes victory at the Spa in the Forego Stakes (G1), and Patch Adams hopes to make it two straight Grade 1 scores when he tops a loaded edition of the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes. On the female side, Scylla and Hope Road figure to vie for favoritism in a wide-open field set for the Ballerina Stakes (G1).

Brian: Matt, Travers Day is always one of the best cards of the year and once again, I will be thrilled to watch it all next to you on-site at Saratoga. The Travers might not have quite the build-up or suspense that it did last summer, but I look forward to seeing Sovereignty again in person as he marches forward in what looks to be a championship campaign.

The afternoon is much more than only the mid-summer derby and I can’t wait to sink my teeth into this Pick 5 of all Grade 1 races. Although I like the chances of the favorites to bookend the sequence, there should be value available in the middle three legs. The seven-furlong distance is often a fun puzzle and with all the talent lined up in the Jerkens, Ballerina,and Forego, they are certain to be interesting races.

Matt: Brian, what could be better than an all-Grade 1 stakes Pick 5 that includes the Travers? I am looking forward to that challenge for races 9-13.

Fortunately, the small field in the Travers includes Sovereignty. I was lucky to see him win the Belmont Stakes and the Jim Dandy (G2) up here at Saratoga. I am also excited about the human-interest story in the midsummer derby and the chance that Hall of Famer Bill Mott will get his first Travers victory if Sovereignty continues his dominance of the 3-year-old division.

Brian: The Personal Ensign is a race where I am expecting a strong showing from Thorpedo Anna. She has had an eight-week break since her last race and loves the surroundings at Saratoga. Although there are plenty of solid fillies and mares in the race, none of them have her kind of ability. I have no doubt she is best in here, and I expect her to sit a nice trip from a bit off the pace while waiting to pounce from the outside.

Because of the amount of speed in the race, I give Raging Sea the next best chance at the win, but her recent form has been disappointing. Dorth Vader returning to Saratoga is also an interesting exotics play, but Thorpedo Anna is a single for me in my Pick 5. I fully expect the horse of the year to remind us all how good she really is.

Matt: There still seem to be some nay-sayers out there when it comes to Thorpedo Anna. I am certainly not one of them. I guess that those doubters like to point to her speed figures and final race times and think those numbers are not impressive. I, on the other hand, point to her career record of 14: 11-2-0 and earnings of more than $5.1 million. Thorpedo Anna is a winner and the reigning horse of the year. An honor that she earned above the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Sierra Leone.

Brian: The Jerkens Memorial is a strong race in that all eight of the horses in the field would not shock me if they won. There are no throwouts here. If I had to pick only one it might be Verifire. He has dominated in all three starts, can pass horses and proved last time out that he belongs from a class perspective. His stablemate Patch Adams has run two straight huge races and is a deserving favorite.

If the pace collapses, it could be Chancer McPatrick’s day. Midland Money has serious speed, and Madaket Road had an excuse last time. Smoken Wicked likes the track and impressed last month. Both Barnes and Captain Cook are talented and could be dangerous with the right trip. Did I mention this was a good race? Verifire will be my tepid top pick in a wide-open affair.

Matt: The Jerkens is loaded with speed. These are horses who do their best when they are on the lead, and they are fast. Bob Baffert has three in the Jerkens and that probably means speed, speed and speed. Throw in Captain Cook and maybe Smoked Wicked and there will be a hot pace to set things up for the horses who will come from behind. My preference is Patch Adams, although Brian’s pick of Verifire to stay undefeated is also good. Patch Adams has been excellent since he returned to sprinting, and he did not belong on the Kentucky Derby trail. He impressed in his June victory in the Woody Stephens (G1) and has had a couple of months off since then.

Brian: In the Ballerina, I’ve lost faith in the morning-line favorite Scylla after six straight losses, and I want to try to beat her. Hope Road makes plenty of sense from the outside, but she has no wins of late either. Obviously, the two favorites have a chance here, but I see them as vulnerable chalk. Of the two, I like Hope Road better for her ability to be involved from the outset and the company she has been keeping.

This is another race where you could make a case for every horse in the field. They all have something to like, and with a vulnerable favorite, it is an easy race to spread the field. If I did have to pick just one in this inscrutable seven-furlong affair, I would go with the Saffie Joseph-trained Claret Beret. The 4-year-old daughter of Not This Time has flashed talent before but has really come to hand since joining the Joseph stable two starts back. The distance and picking up Irad Ortiz Jr. should suit her just fine.

Matt: The Ballerina is such a tough race to pick a winner as there are so many fillies who on their best day could take down this prestigious Grade 1. Yes, Hope Road does not a have victory since she won four in a row last race, but she lost to Kopion three times this year. Hope Road has been off since May, and she has a series of fast six-furlongs works at Del Mar for trainer Bob Baffert. That is the kind of workout pattern that Baffert puts in horses when they are going to run a big race.

Brian: The Forego features an absolute favorite of mine in Book’em Danno. The son of the underrated stallion Bucchero is as honest as they come, he likes Saratoga, he brings in excellent form and is tactical enough to win from anywhere. He is the favorite, but I think there is still some value on the New Jersey-bred gelding in this deep field

HorseCenter: State of American turf racing, Alabama top picks

Thu, 14 Aug 2025 09:44:07 GMT

This week on HorseCenter Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman take stock of the American turf scene. Led by classy runners such as Deterministic and She Feels Pretty, can the American side find success at the Breeders’ Cup this fall at Del Mar, or will Europe dominate once again?

The veteran Fort Washington led the charge on Saturday for the domestic grass runners with an exciting win in the Arlington Million (G1), but the Europeans countered when El Cordobes won the Sword Dancer (G1) in his first start in the United States.

Meanwhile at Saratoga, Good Cheer will look to rebound from her first career loss when she headlines the Grade 1, $600,000 Alabama Stakes. The Kentucky Oaks winner had her seven-race winning streak snapped when fifth in the Acorn Stakes (G1) last time. Standing in her way in the historic Alabama include a strong duo from the barn of Mark Casse in multiple graded stakes winners La Cara and Nitrogen.

Brian: It brings me no joy to admit that European-based runners have absolutely dominated the American runners at the world championships for years now. In our biggest race of all, the Breeders’ Cup Turf, they have won nine of the last 10 runnings with only Bricks and Mortar back in 2019 standing in the way of a perfect score for the Euros.

On the bright side, North Americans did do better in 2024. More Than Looks was able to break through with a powerful stretch kick at Del Mar which carried him to victory in the Breeders' Cup Mile - a race European-based runners had won four times in a row - and an all-American exacta along with Johannes. And I am going to count the Canadian Moira, who did most of her running last year in the U.S. and won the Filly & Mare Turf, as a victory for North America. Could these results be a sign of good things to come, or are we heading to a skunking this year at the Breeders’ Cup?

Matt: It is probably a positive factor that the Breeders’ Cup is in California again this year. The turf courses out west tend to be different enough from those in Europe that it gives the Americans some kind of advantage. With rain infrequent at Del Mar the turf will be much harder than the softer grass that the Euros frequent. The grass is also cut much shorter at the west coast tracks.

Brian: In recent weeks, we have seen some important American races run on the grass and it’s been a mixed bag. I remain high on She Feels Pretty even though she was nosed out by the Irish import Excellent Truth in the Diana. The latter is now in the Chad Brown barn and is a serious mare, but She Feels Pretty is the one I am most interested in moving forward. Trained by Cherie DeVaux, the Karakontie 4-year-old filly is all class and had four nice stakes wins in a row before the near miss in the Diana. She also has already won out in California and seems comfortable at any distance. She should give the U.S. a big shot this year in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

Matt: DeVaux has the right Breeders’ Cup pedigree having been a top assistant of Browns for many years. With a talented turfer like She Feels Pretty she has a good chance to win at the world championships in her first try.

Brian: Another bright spot for the American turf scene has been the rise of Deterministic. Matt, I know you have been high on this one since his Gotham (G3) win last spring and clearly his potential has been realized since switching to the grass. He is another horse who appears to be good at different distances, but the one-mile trip seems to be where he is most interesting. After nice wins in the Fort Marcy (G2) and Manhattan (G1), I thought his recent Fourstardave (G1) victory points him out as a true threat in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Matt: Right now, Deterministic is the best American turf horse male or female. However the competition that he faced this year certainly does not compare to what the Europeans face on a regular basis in their Group rated stakes.

You certainly can not count out Chad Brown in the Breeders’ Cup. He won 19 of the world championship races in a relatively short time with all but five of them coming in turf races.

Brian: On Saturday, I was happy to see Junior Alvarado and Fort Washington sweep to victory late in the Arlington Million (G1) at Colonial Downs. Granted this field was not a strong Grade 1 by any means, but it was nice to see the hard-knocking veteran break through with a big win. At 6, he is clearly in the best form of his career and this was his third graded stakes victory of the year for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. He has joined the conversation for an Eclipse Award to this point, but I don’t see him as a strong candidate for either the Mile or the Turf quite yet.

Matt: Speaking of being in career best form, how about Junior Alvarado? He just continues to win big races around the country with his confidence at a very high level on the heels of his Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes victories with Sovereignty. Last weekend in addition to his Arlington Million victory, he was second in the Secretariat Stakes (G1) at Colonial. Junior also won the Mahoney (G3) with a thrilling late rally in the turf sprint stakes at Saratoga on Sunday.

Brian: If you are rooting and or betting on the Americans in these big turf races, the Sword Dancer was a disappointment. Rebel Red stepped up with a solid second, but the Europeans ran first and third and the winner El Cordobes was best. The top two are both sons of Frankel, so maybe the superstar stallion was the real story of the Sword Dancer. The big disappointment was Far Bridge, who faded to sixth as a heavy favorite. I thought he was our best shot in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, but he now looks extremely vulnerable.

Meanwhile, Rebel’s Romance won another big race over the weekend, this time in Germany. The great gelding looks primed for another run at the Breeders’ Cup Turf. A 7-year-old son of Dubawi bred in Ireland, he has already won the big race twice and could become the first horse ever to win America’s richest turf race three times.

Matt: Far Bridge is a horse that can be difficult to ride and he just did not look comfortable during a trip that was rough at times and had him racing outside and then along the rail. When finally clear and asked to run, Far Bridge came up empty.

Rebel’s Romance is a remarkable horse who just keeps on winning for trainer Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. His career accomplishments are huge, with 19 victories from 28 starts, including seven Grade or Group 1 stakes and earnings of $14.1 million. He won races on three different continents in six different years. Rebel’s Romance ran in the Breeders’ Cup Turf twice in 2022 and 2024 and won it both times. Connections are eyeing the Turf again this year, so the other turf stars around the world should beware.

Brian: Transitioning from the turf to the dirt, a championship could be won in Saturday’s historic Alabama Stakes. At the very least, I believe a victory by either Good Cheer, La Cara or Nitrogen would give them a real leg up in the race to decide this year’s top 3-year-old filly. All three have proven to be very nice horses, but all three also come wi

HorseCenter: Early look at 5 Grade 1s on Travers day 2025

Thu, 07 Aug 2025 07:15:58 GMT

This week on HorseCenter, we look forward to a huge afternoon of racing at Saratoga. Led by the mid-summer derby, Travers Stakes day offers five Grade 1 races worth a total of $3.25 million. To no surprise many of the brightest stars in racing have Aug. 23 circled on the calendar.

Already a winner of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes as well as two other graded stakes this season, Sovereignty looks to keep things rolling in the $1.25 million Travers (G1). A win in this 1 1/4-mile test should send the powerful son of Into Mischief on to Del Mar as the Breeders’ Cup Classic favorite.

As an appetizer to the Travers, reigning horse of the year Thorpedo Anna faces many of the top older females in the nation in the $500,000 Personal Ensign (G1). Other highlights from the afternoon include Book’em Danno looking for a third straight win at the Spa in the Forego (G1), Patch Adams facing a tough test in the Jerkens Memorial (G1) and Ways and Means headlining the Ballerina (G1).

Brian: Is Sovereignty the best horse in America? He may well be. We will find out later this season at Del Mar, but for now the sweet striding colt will look to put a ribbon on his season against fellow 3-year-olds in the historic Travers. I’m not sure it matters who is in there to face him, the Bill Mott-trained star should rack up another important victory at a distance that suits him perfectly.

As for the competition, I am interested to learn more about Magnitude after his dominating wins in the Risen Star (G2) and Iowa Derby, but anything better than a second here would be a big surprise. Goal Oriented looks to be developing into a very nice horse for Baffert, but chasing Magnitude and then holding off Sovereignty seems like an impossible task. Journalism, Baeza or Gosger could spice things up, but I am honestly not counting on any of them to make the trip.

Matt: The lead-up to the Travers will be all about Sovereignty as well it should. He is a special horse that has done special things in the biggest races of the year for 3-year-olds. He continues to get my vote as the top Thoroughbred in the country, and I mean all divisions, not just the 3-year-olds.

Brian: Besides seeing Sovereignty again, another big reason I will be making the trip to upstate New York for Travers week will be Thorpedo Anna. I love seeing the fantastic filly run, and it will be a treat to see her at the Spa again. Her wins in the Acorn (G1) and Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), and near miss against the boys in the Travers were the highlight of summer racing last season, and I look forward to seeing what she can do back at Saratoga.

With Grade 1 winners Randomized, Raging Sea, Dorth Vader and Leslie’s Rose also likely for the Personal Ensign, it should be a good barometer to see where the champion stands just over two months out from the Breeders’ Cup.

Matt: So much to look forward to on Saturday, Aug. 23. No doubt that all of the attention on this year’s Triple Crown with Sovereignty and Journalism has taken the spotlight away from Thorpedo Anna. There are many handicappers that keep insisting that the reigning horse of the year has more to prove on the track. Her career record of 14: 11-2-0 with earnings of $5.1 million seems pretty darn good to me.

What does bother me is the on-air racing personalities who insist on mispronouncing her name which. At this point I must assume ot is done intentionally.

Brian: While it’s true that Thorpedo Anna is my favorite horse in years, I am also a big fan of Book’em Danno. The New Jersey-bred son of Bucchero has been an underrated star since his very first race two summers ago at Monmouth Park. With two graded-stakes wins already this season at Saratoga, Matt, there are many more fans joining us on the Danno bandwagon. That’s good. There is plenty of room and, as a gelding, plenty of time to appreciate this crack sprinter.

Matt: Book’em Danno is a hard-knocking horse from New Jersey who seems to love being at Saratoga as much as you and I do, Brian.

Brian: Year in and year out, the Jerkens Memorial has become a favorite betting race of mine. I did lose it last year when Book’em Danno found plenty of early traffic. But that’s OK. Time to get right back up in the saddle this year. Patch Adams looks like a deserving favorite after his big Woody Stephens win, but as a heavy favorite here, I may be looking for an upset.

Smoken Wicked, Chancer McPatrick and Verifire are all coming off solid stakes wins and should lead the opposition against the favorite. I am expecting a loaded field here going the tricky seven-furlong distance, and this will be a race I am very much looking forward to handicapping.

Matt: It has been great seeing horses like Patch Adams, Smoken Wicked and Chancer McPatrick come up with big performances that fulfilled promise that they showed early in their careers. Patch Adams had that 10-length maiden victory and then looked great winning the Woody Stephens (G1) after stumbling on the Kentucky Derby trail. The Louisiana-bred Smoken Wicked looked great in Cajun country but then proved himself up north and won the Amsterdam (G2). Chancer McPatrick won the first three starts in his career including the Champagne (G1) and won the Curlin last month after four losses.

Brian: Last but not least, we have Ways and Means in the Ballerina (G1). A romping winner of her debut at Saratoga two summers ago, the fleet filly has been a handful ever since, especially at her favorite track. Her lone Grade 1 victory came last year at the Spa when she passed the Test, but her last race at Saratoga in winning the Bed O’ Roses (G2) may have been her most impressive race to date. She could be a single to use in the multi-race wagers as she preps for another shot at the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

Matt: Ways and Means is one fast filly who had a breath-taking stretch run at the Spa for Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables. Brian, you know that a Pick 5 player like me is looking forward to the chance to structure tickets around many of the stars that we mentioned in our Travers day preview.

Brian: Named for a champion of yesteryear who surprisingly never won a race on the grass in three career tries, the Sword Dancer (G1) has become the most important turf race of the year going a distance outside of the Breeders’ Cup Turf. This year’s edition has drawn a nice international match-up despite it being run on the same afternoon as the Arlington Million (G1) at Colonial Downs.

Last year Far Bridge was let go at odds of 8-1 when going gate to wire in this race. This year the odds for him will be significantly shorter as he looks for his fourth graded-stakes victory of the season. Trained by Miguel Clement since the untimely passing of his father Christophe, the 5-year-old star has continued to improve with maturity as so many offspring of English Channel tend to do. A second straight win in the Sword Dancer would come as no surprise.

Matt: Since taking over from his father, Miguel has been making all the right moves with wins at tracks all over the country. Halfway through the Saratoga meeting he sits in fourth place in the trainer standings with nine wins. Over

HorseCenter: Analysis and top picks for Saratoga stakes

Wed, 30 Jul 2025 20:01:30 GMT

This week on HorseCenter, we set our sights on a big Saturday afternoon of racing from Saratoga. Five graded stakes, the last four of which are Grade 1, guarantee an entertaining day of racing at the Spa. The headliner of the card will be the Grade 1, $1 million Whitney. The historic race has been won by past greats such as War Admiral, Tom Fool, Kelso, Dr. Fager, Alydar and Easy Goer. It is also the race where Onion famously upset Secretariat.

This year’s edition features the fifth meeting between champions Fierceness and Sierra Leone. Last seen together running 1-2 in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic, this will be their first matchup as older runners. Former Whitney winner White Abarrio, as well as Skippylongstocking, Highland Falls and Post Time contribute to the overall depth and quality of the nine-furlong affair.

We also handicap and offer top picks for the Fourstardave Stakes (G1). Named for the Sultan of Saratoga, the one-mile turf test is headlined by the return of Johannes, who has an 8-for-10 record on the grass. Other classy notables in the wide-open race include Deterministic, Spirit of St Louis, Think Big and Intellect.

Brian: Before jumping into the Whitney, Matt, let’s talk a little bit about last Saturday’s Jim Dandy (G2). Sovereignty continues to impress. He has won five times in six tries in graded-stakes company, and he is only getting better with maturity. I thought Baeza ran a strong race to distance himself from the rest, but the way the winner finishes off these races is most impressive. It reminds me a little bit of the late-running power of Java Gold when he got really good back in 1987. Sovereignty is going to be tough to deny in the Travers (G1), no matter who shows up.

Matt: Again, Sovereignty ran a big race in the Jim Dandy. It was another very hot day at Saratoga last Saturday, and before the race Sovereignty looked sweaty and washed out. So in that regard it was another new challenge for the Godolphin homebred. Was the heat getting the best of him before the race even started?

The lone speed Mo Plex stumbled out of the gate, still got to the lead but set rather slow fractions. In the end he was not a factor in the race as Sovereignty used a strong and steady closing move to get to the lead around the quarter pole and held off any challenge that Baeza provided.

I thought Sovereignty’s winning move in the Jim Dandy looked a lot like Journalism down the stretch at Monmouth Park when he won the Haskell (G1). They both looked like winners for the entirety of their first post-Triple Crown start.

Brian: I think our Whitney discussion needs to start with Fierceness and Sierra Leone. If not for the fantastic race by Thorpedo Anna in last year’s Travers, these two would have finished 1-2 in their last three meetings. Sierra Leone got the money in the Breeders’ Cup Classic after a torrid early pace, but it was Fierceness who got the best of his rival in the Jim Dandy and the Travers, which were both at Saratoga.

Although both still need to prove themselves as older horses, I expect them to be ready to fire strong shots on Saturday, and another 1-2 finish would come as no surprise. On this track and at this distance, Fierceness deserves to be the favorite, but the TimeformUS pace projector is calling for strong early fractions, which would help the chances of Sierra Leone.

Matt: You mention the anticipated Whitney pace that could favor Sierra Leone. It seems that Chad Brown took the matter into his own hands when he entered Contrary Thinking in the race. He is a 5-year-old owned by Peter Brant, who also is one of the owners of Sierra Leone. Contrary Thinking was a front-end winner of a recent one-mile Aqueduct allowance. Brant and Brown seem to be going old school by entering a rabbit to help speed up the pace.

Brian: White Abarrio remains a bit of a classy enigma. Now 6, the handsome gray has been good enough to win Grade 1 races such as the Florida Derby, Whitney, Breeders’ Cup Classic and Pegasus World Cup over the years, but you just never can be certain when he will be at his best.

The Met Mile (G1) on a wet track likely gave neither Fierceness nor White Abarrio the best opportunity behind the strong early speed of Raging Torrent, but perhaps the veteran is just a step behind his younger rivals these days. Still, I cannot count out White Abarrio, and it would be nice to see him at his best on Saturday to see where he fits among the best older horses in America.

Matt: With exception of 2023, when White Abarrio was at the peak of his career and won the Whitney and the Breeders’ Cup Classic, those are the only two times that the 6-year-old grey horse won outside of Florida. The other eight times he visited the winner’s circle at Gulfstream Park. So the win count for White Abarrio is eight at Gulfstream and one each at Saratoga and Santa Anita. In 2025, he has two wins at Gulfstream in the Pegasus World Cup and the Ghostzapper (G3) and a fourth in the Met Mile at Saratoga.

Brian: I think three others in the Whitney deserve mention, Matt. A son of Curlin, Highland Falls might still have room for improvement. A winner of 6-of-11 lifetime, he looked very good in winning last season’s Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), which was his only previous race at Saratoga. With a nice prep under his belt, he could be a factor here. As much as I like the nine-time graded-stakes winner Skippylongstocking, I just don’t feel like this is the best spot for him to excel.

And finally you have Post Time. Another favorite of mine, he runs plenty of good races, none better than his rallying second in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1). He also was third in this race last year. If the pace is strong, he should come running, but can he really outkick Sierra Leone? I just don’t know.

Matt: Let me go back to Fierceness, who will have a couple of strong statistics in his favor. At Saratoga, Fierceness has a record of 4: 3-1-0 with wins in his first career start, the Jim Dandy and the Travers. The second-place finish was in the Met Mile. At the 1 1/8-miles distance of the Whitney, Fierceness won his only two tries in the Florida Derby and the Jim Dandy.

No matter how you look at it, the Whitney field is strong with eight horses who already have career earnings over the $1 million mark. Eight of them are graded-stakes winners, and five have a Grade 1 win.

Brian: It’s always fun to take to the turf. It’s a shame there is not greater quality in American grass racing, but this week at Saratoga I believe we have a good one. The $750,000 Fourstardave at a flat mile brings together an eclectic group of talented horses in what should be an excellent betting race.

The race’s favorite is Johannes, and deservedly so. His turf record is beyond reproach. In 10 lifetime starts on the grass, the son of Nyquist has won eight and run well in the other two, including a solid second in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Mile. There is reason to take a shot against the favorite here, however, as he will be making his first start of the year and he never has won outside of California.

Matt: Interesting move by trainer Tim Yakteen to send Johannes to Saratoga. Team Johannes easily could have taken the same path as last year when he

HorseCenter: Summer says Journalism and Sovereignty

Wed, 23 Jul 2025 18:42:19 GMT

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman take a favorable look at the 2025 crop of 3-year-old males. Not resting on their laurels from an excellent Triple Crown series, Sovereignty and Journalism have come right back to headline the biggest sophomore races of the summer.

The Cardiac Kid was at it again as Journalism closed with a rush to score a win in the Grade 1, $1 million Haskell Stakes on Saturday at Monmouth Park. Several hours to the north of the Jersey Shore, Sovereignty will look to keep it rolling as he comes back in Saratoga’s Jim Dandy Stakes. They are clearly the top two this year, but where do the excellent pair stand from a historical perspective?

Head to Head: Consensus is building for Jim Dandy.

Matt and Brian also handicap the Grade 2, $500,000 Jim Dandy Stakes from Saratoga as their race of the week. Sovereignty will be a prohibitive favorite on Saturday but a victory is not guaranteed as he gears up for the Travers (G1) four weeks later.

Brian: There are plenty of good 3-year-old males out there this season, Matt. I think most years we would be talking about horses like Baeza, Magnitude, Gosger, Sandman, Mo Plex and Goal Oriented as potential stars of the fall, but this is not most years. Sovereignty and Journalism have distanced themselves from the pack with continued excellence.

Collectively, the pair swept the Triple Crown and are showing no signs of slowing down after Journalism’s thrilling late charge to victory in the Haskell. In seven graded stakes appearances, the son of Curlin has five wins and two seconds. Of course, his only two defeats of the seven came when second to Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes. As good as Journalism has been, Sovereignty has been even better with four wins and a second from graded stakes attempts.

Matt: I am excited for the Jim Dandy and to see if Sovereignty will match Journalism’s impressive Haskell victory in his first start after the Triple Crown races. As always, trainer Bill Mott was being cagey about his star 3-year-old’s upcoming race.

“We hope he has a good race and has a little luck. Anything can happen. They’ve got to go around there, and it’s not over until those blinking lights say official. They’ve got to hang those numbers up and say official.”

Brian: The exploits of the dynamic duo have me enamored with this crop of 3-year-old males overall. It’s a deep and talented group that could become a great crop if Sovereignty and Journalism continue to mature and improve. The pair awakens memories of great rivalries of the past. I wasn’t around for Swaps and Nashua, or Dr. Fager and Damascus, but I remember Affirmed and Alydar very well, and after them Sunday Silence and Easy Goer.

It’s not fair to compare Sovereignty and Journalism with legends like those at this point, but personally, I am enthusiastically looking forward to each race they run. If I had to pick the best 3-year-old pair of the 21st century right now, I would point to the pair of champions from the 2007 crop. Curlin and Street Sense were two outstanding horses. Can the current pair reach their lofty heights? It certainly looks like they have the potential to get there.

Matt: Looking through the list of past winners of the Jim Dandy, I stopped in 1982, a year when my romance with racing was in full bloom, and I saw the name of one of my favorite horses Conquistador Cielo. He is probably best known as the 3-year-old that began the remarkable five consecutive Belmont Stakes winners that the great Woody Stephens trained from 1982 to 1986.

In 1982, Conquistador Cielo won seven races in a row from February to August. That included a stretch with the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) on May 31 and five days later he beat the Kentucky Derby winner Gato del Sol in the Belmont Stakes by 14 lengths. The streak continued in July in the Dwyer (G2) and then a month later in the Jim Dandy.

Two weeks after the Jim Dandy, Conquistador Cielo’s remarkable run and career came to an end after finishing third in the Travers. He was sold for $36.5 million, which was a remarkable amount of money in today’s dollar and even more so in 1982. At the year’s end he was named the 3-year-old champion and horse of the year.

Brian: The evolution of Sovereignty since we saw him in his career debut rallying down the Saratoga stretch against a stacked maiden field has been textbook. Trainer Bill Mott deserves credit for developing the handsome son of Into Mischief into a superstar. After the first half of his sophomore season went about as well as possibly hoped for, it’s time for him to show he can be even better as a still maturing horse. The Jim Dandy is the first step.

A natural prep for the Travers, the 9-furlong Jim Dandy is a race he is expected to win. It can be a tricky race for horses coming out of the Belmont Stakes, however. Affirmed almost got beat after his amazing Triple Crown run. Empire Maker did get beat. Sovereignty has one advantage in that the Belmont was only 10-furlongs at Saratoga this year. Having said that, the short field with very little early speed does him no favors in a race that is only a bridge between major goals.

Matt: Sovereignty’s loss in the Florida Derby (G1), which was his final prep race for the Kentucky Derby victory, serves as a reminder that Bill Mott is an old-school trainer that does not care if his horses take a loss on the way to success in a more important race. Could the same thing happen in the Jim Dandy as surely Mott has his eyes on the Travers (G1) on Aug. 23?

That seems like a more feasible explanation for Sovereignty getting upset in the Jim Dandy than any of his four opponents stepping up to defeat him when he is at full fitness.

Brian: Baeza deserves credit for exiting a maiden win and then running three good races against the likes of Journalism and Sovereignty. The Belmont was not his best, but his big Derby finish may have taken something out of him. Have we seen his best, or can he still get better? I lean to the latter and this is a race that is probably more important to his connections than those of the horse that beat him in the last two. He also has a little more tactical speed than Sovereignty, which could be a big benefit to him on Saturday. I believe he has the best shot to upset the favorite.

Matt: Even though Baeza has only one career victory I agree that he is the most formidable challenger for Sovereignty. His speed figures from the Santa Anita and Kentucky Derbies are better than everybody in the field except Sovereignty. Let’s face it, in his last two starts he lost to the two best 3-year-olds in the country and three races back he lost to Journalism another time.

Brian: Speed is always dangerous and when you can get loose on the lead the threat expands exponentially. Mo Plex never before has faced this kind, but the New York-bred has shown enough in the Bay Shore and Ohio Derby (G3) to earn a shot at the big boys. He also has two wins over the Saratoga track and experience battling down the lane. Everything points to a good e

HorseCenter: Haskell Stakes analysis and top picks

Thu, 17 Jul 2025 05:43:02 GMT

On the occasion of the Grade 1, $1 million Haskell Stakes, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman share their favorite memories of the prestigious race this week on HorseCenter. New Jersey natives, both analysts have closely followed the signature race at Monmouth Park for longer than they care to admit and have great remembrances of the best in the long history of the event.

In the 2025 edition of the 1 1/8-mile Haskell, Triple Crown veteran Journalism will be the one to beat as he makes his first start since finishing second in the Kentucky Derby, first in the Preakness Stakes and second in the Belmont Stakes. The Michael McCarthy-trained charge should rule as a heavy favorite Saturday.

A strong supporting cast aims to derail Journalism in the lone 3-year-old race with the win-and-you’re-in designation for this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. Gosger leads the way in his first start since finishing second to Journalism in the Preakness. Burnham Square, Goal Oriented and Bracket Buster are three more to watch in Monmouth’s signature race.

Brian: Matt, I think it is safe to say that the Haskell Stakes is a race that occupies a special place in each of our hearts. Growing up in New Jersey, I have always taken great pride in Monmouth Park’s best race, and it certainly has delivered over the years.

The first memory I would like to share is from the 1981 edition. My allowance came in the form of a betting budget back in those days, and I got $2 a race from my Dad every time we went to the track. Lord Avie, the 2-year-old champion of the year before, had to miss the Triple Crown series because of an injury, but trainer Danny Perlsweig had him back in time to score an easy prep win over the track.

The champ was heavily favored and was a horse I always liked, but in the Haskell, I was all in on another favorite of mine. It was a field of six, and I knew that Five Star Flight could control the pace. Saving my $2 from each race before, I waited patiently for the big race and was thrilled to see my pick easily turn back the charge of Lord Avie down the stretch. My first ever “big” bet was a winner thanks to the speedy Five Star Flight in the 1981 Haskell Stakes.

Matt: Brian, I love your Haskell remembrance especially that you saved $2 from each race before. Some things do not change, you still are successfully selective about the races in which you choose to bet.

One of my favorite editions of the Haskell goes even further back in time to 1976, when the Haskell was known as the Monmouth Invitational. On that day a younger version of Matt loved a horse named Majestic Light, who went to the Haskell for the Phipps Stable with Sandy Hawley coming from Canada to ride. He had won a couple of big races in California and was 9-2 behind Honest Pleasure and was a heavy favorite.

It was in the time that there were long betting lines and as I stood there a young guy with a thick New York accent said to me, “Bet your house on Honest Pleasure.” I politely suggested that that would be a big mistake.

On that day I was correct as Majestic Light closed like a rocket to win by six lengths while setting a track record, and I was delighted to cash a big $20 win-place-show ticket.

Brian: Certainly the best Haskell I ever attended was the 1987 running. The war at the shore pitted Alysheba, Bet Twice and Lost Code against each other, and the trio did not disappoint. The Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner came with a big late run but could catch only half of the pair who had battled together since the far turn. I lost my money on Lost Code as he finished third to Bet Twice and Alysheba that afternoon, but it was worth it to see the three excellent horses put on a show.

Matt: The 2015 Haskell was a homecoming event for American Pharoah. He already had swept through five races that year, going from two at Oaklawn to the Triple Crown. He was trained by Bob Baffert, of course, and was based in this California barn. But American Pharoah was owned by Ahmed Zayat and campaigned by his family, who are New Jersey residents.

At that point I was working for Horse Racing Nation and was covering the Triple Crown winner. Media were everywhere all week long. There was a large crowd at the barn when he arrived in a van that had been decorated to promote the signature race at the Jersey Shore.

He won easily on that first weekend in August, and it was a day of pride for New Jersey racing that drew a record crowd of just under 61,000.

Brian: More recent editions that stick out for me include when Rachel Alexandra turned back the rally of Summer Bird in the 2009 Haskell. I was in a Chicago OTB with my brother for that one, but it was still a thrill to see my favorite filly romp home in a matchup of the two Eclipse Award-winning 3-year-olds of that season.

And Matt, I was standing next to you for the 2015 running when American Pharoah rolled to victory over Keen Ice and Upstart. It was an honor to see a Triple Crown winner do his thing at our home track, and it was made even better by witnessing it with you, my great friend.

Matt: Nine Haskell winners went on to be named 3-year-old champion along with two champion 3-year-old fillies. Five Haskell winners were honored as horse of the year, Holy Bull, Point Given, Rachel Alexandra, American Pharoah and most recently Authentic in 2020.

Brian: Journalism certainly has the looks and breeding of an outstanding runner, but there is even more under the hood. The son of Curlin answers every bell and digs down for something extra when he needs to. These all are signs of a special racehorse. Sovereignty has had his number in the first two meetings, but I would not be at all surprised if he gets the best of his rival at some point in the future. If not for the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner, Journalism would be on a seven-race winning streak, with six graded-stakes scores and a Triple Crown.

Having said all that, every new race is a challenge, and coming back in only six weeks after a grueling Triple Crown series is a test. Happily, he has looked the picture of health with a dappled-out coat and three strong workouts since running second in the Belmont. I believe there is legitimate competition for him on Saturday, but near his best will get the job done in the Haskell.

Matt: The competition for Journalism in the Haskell will have to take a big step forward to beat the horse that we saw run better than all of the 3-year-olds in the Triple Crown except Sovereignty. Also, there is probably just as much reason for Journalism to continue to mature, and if that happens he will be that much harder to beat.

Brian: Gosger is the horse that most interests me of the opposition because of his upside. His pedigree and looks rival that of Journalism, and his progression in each of his first four lifetime starts has been notable. He was 15-1 at Pimlico and ran great, but I still think he is flying a bit under the radar. A near winner in the Preakness, is it possible he is let go as the fourth choice in the Haskell? Working well at Churchill Downs, I am expecting another strong effort from the big gray.

Matt: In the Preakness, Gosger got a great trip. He pressed the pace and took over the lead getting clear in the stretch by five lengths

HorseCenter: Haskell Stakes, Jim Dandy early look

Thu, 10 Jul 2025 07:33:43 GMT

Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

This week on HorseCenter Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman revisit the exciting 3-year-old male division. Sovereignty and Journalism were the stars of the 2025 Triple Crown series, and both excellent colts are training well and expected back to the races soon. With the $1.25 million, Grade 1 Travers Stakes looming in six weeks, the Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth Park and the Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga will not only serve as key preps, but they will be big races in their own right.

In the 1 1/8-mile Haskell Stakes, Journalism leads the way among 18 nominations for the $1 million event on July 19. Other prominent names expected to make the trip to the Jersey Shore for Monmouth’s signature event are Gosger, Burnham Square, Mo Plex, Goal Oriented and Bracket Buster.

Meanwhile at Saratoga, Sovereignty will go favored in the $500,000 Jim Dandy Stakes on July 26. Opposition to the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner will be led by Baeza, who was third in both of those races, as well as Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Sandman and Peter Pan (G3) winner Hill Road.

Brian: Matt, we now know that Journalism will be in the Haskell, and the Preakness winner will be the one they all have to beat. After a grueling Triple Crown schedule, he was the only horse to run in all three legs. I think this race makes plenty of sense for Journalism as the New Jersey track plays closer to his home tracks in Southern California. Horses from the west have done well in this race over the years. There also will be speed in the field to set up his rally, and he would avoid Sovereignty for a race.

If he is coming back this quickly, he must be showing no signs of burnout from the tough spring. The four-time graded-stakes winner runs well every time out, can overcome trouble and should only get better with maturity. Let’s not forget that when Sovereignty put him away in the Belmont, Journalism had reason to be just a little bit tired after tough races in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

Matt: That is a bit of an understatement about horses from the west doing well in the Haskell. Bob Baffert alone has won the race nine times from 2001 to 2020. Richard Mandella won twice, including in 2023 with Geaux Rocket Ride.

For the most part the Haskell is won by big-name trainers with big barns. Many of them are Hall of Famers such as Baffert, Mandella, Todd Pletcher, Steve Asmussen, Bobby Frankel and Shug McGaughey. Brad Cox and Chad Brown are on their way to the Hall of Fame when they become eligible.

Aron Wellman, president of Journalism co-owner Eclipse Thoroughbreds, told Horse Racing Nation that if the horse’s final workout this weekend goes as planned then he will ship east to run at Monmouth Park.

Brian: Two horses who Journalism defeated in the Preakness will make their first start since the middle jewel when they run in Monmouth’s biggest race. Gosger is a very handsome and well-bred colt who looks to have his best days ahead of him. He has improved with each race and although what Journalism did at Pimlico was nothing short of amazing, it was this son of Nyquist who did everything right the first nine furlongs of the trip. Freshened since and working at Churchill Downs, he should be ready to roll for trainer Brendan Walsh in his fifth career start.

Meanwhile, Goal Oriented ran a pretty good race at Pimlico, considering his lack of experience. The Not This Time colt was coming off only a six-furlong maiden and a Churchill allowance race and still he was right there to put the squeeze on Journalism at the head of the stretch. He stayed on well for fourth that afternoon. Working very well at Santa Anita of late, he is a big threat to give Baffert another win in the Haskell.

Matt: The horses that Brian mentioned all are nice 3-year-olds who have flashed plenty of potential. Not sure there is enough upside in any of them if Journalism shows up in top form.

Gosger is a home-red by the Harvey A. Clarke Racing Stable. His dam Gloria S. produced six foals, and all of them were winners. Together they won 17 races and earned more than $2.2 million on the track. Gosger is joined by Harvey’s Lil Goil as a graded-stakes winner. She won the Queen Elizabeth II (G1) and four Grade 3 stakes.

Baffert will have to work his magic on Goal Oriented to have him ready to get Haskell victory No.10. Baffert is the king of the Haskell and clearly knows how to get his horses ready to use speed to their advantage. Goal Oriented has two very fast five-furlong works of 58.0 and 58.6 seconds at Santa Anita the past two weeks.

Brian: Since I saw him win the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland, Burnham Square has not had much good luck. In the Kentucky Derby he was down on the rail and ready to run before getting completely shut off. In a race that always features tough luck for some, it was this colt who had the absolute worst of it. Still, he came on again to finish sixth. Next out, he faced a paceless race in the Matt Winn (G3) and still gave East Avenue all he wanted. I think the son of Liam’s Map is sitting on a big effort, and maybe a little bit better luck, heading into the Haskell.

Matt: Burnham Square should be considered a win contender in the Haskell based on his Grade 1 and Grade 3 victories on the Derby trail. His sixth-place finish in the run for the roses is certainly noteworthy. He won the Blue Grass with a late rally at Keeneland, which like Monmouth Park has a reputation as a speed-favoring track.

Brian: There can be no speculation on who will be favored in the Jim Dandy. I believe this is a strong crop of 3-year-old males we have in 2025, and Sovereignty deserves to be at the head of the class. After two promising efforts going one turn to begin his career, the strapping son of Into Mischief has been sensational in five races going a route of ground. His wins in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes were comprehensive and impressive.

Trained by Bill Mott, he will drop back down to nine furlongs for the Jim Dandy and stay at Saratoga, where he won the Belmont. He’s 0-for-1 at the distance and if you want to take a shot to beat him, remember that his Hall of Fame trainer did not have him fully cranked up in the race before the Kentucky Derby, and he might not be again in the prep for the Travers.

Matt: Sovereignty is not only the leading 3-year-old, but he also is ranked No. 2 in the latest National Thoroughbred Racing Association top Thoroughbred poll behind only Mindframe. Brian, you and I both put Sovereignty in the top spot in this week’s voting.

With Sovereignty, certainly the longer the race the more his advantage over the other 3-year-olds increases. But cutting back to nine furlongs in the Jim Dandy probably does not put him at a disadvantage. He won the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park and the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill going 8 1/2 furlongs.

No doubt that the longer term goals for Sovereignty are the Travers and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Bill Mott is an old-school trainer who does not always have his horses at 100% because he has his eyes on the biggest prizes.

Brian: John Shirreffs has trained very go

HorseCenter: Saratoga July 4 top picks + Lukas tribute

Thu, 03 Jul 2025 08:29:30 GMT

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman jump right into the July 4 festival at venerable Saratoga. The Spa will feature 10 stakes races over three days, and your hosts will focus on the Friday holiday card, which is led by the Grade 1, $750,000 Belmont Derby Invitational for sophomore turf specialists and the historic Suburban Stakes (G2) for older males running the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles on the main track.

In the nine-furlong Belmont Derby, it’s a wide-open field of eight. Test Score could be a tepid choice in this one coming off a pair of strong efforts in graded stakes in Kentucky, but look for Kentucky Derby fourth-place finisher Final Gambit and the English-bred Grade 1 winner New Century to be among those who garner plenty of support. In the Suburban, Locked looks to rebound from an uncharacteristic fourth in the Alysheba (G2). An impressive winner of the Cigar Mile (G2) and Santa Anita Handicap (G1) in his last four starts, he should be a big favorite on Friday.

Matt and Brian also pay their respects after the sad news of the death of legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas. An icon of the sport, Lukas passed away Saturday at the age of 89.

Brian: The news of the passing of D. Wayne Lukas was not a surprise after he returned home under hospice care recently, but nonetheless it was a blow. My personal memories of the training career of the legend span 45 years, and my feelings toward him came full circle and then some.

The first time I really knew of the Wisconsin native was as a young fan in 1980. Lukas brought the talented and improving Codex to the 1980 Preakness and defeated the wonderful Kentucky Derby-winning filly Genuine Risk. The ride by Angel Cordero on Codex did the filly dirty, and the trainer seemed a bit brash for my taste. He soon would dominate the sport and my respect grew, but I often rooted against the nation’s top trainer.

Matt: D. Wayne Lukas changed Thoroughbred racing more than any other individual in the history of the sport, and that cannot be denied. Lukas came along as racing was moving out of its golden era of Triple Crown winners Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed and exceptional horses such as Spectacular Bid. He was the first of the super trainers with large numbers of horses in his care who were stabled at several tracks across the country. He turned the sales auctions into happenings as he went there to buy expensive yearlings whom he knew would be fast and would win as precocious 2-year-olds. Then the Breeders’ Cup came along and Lukas made it his playground by winning 20 times. He also focused his stable on winning Triple Crown races, and he made those races even more important in the public eye than they had been.

Brian: Although I wasn’t afraid to look to beat Lukas in the nation’s biggest races as a bettor, I also became a big fan of many of his horses over the years. The great Lady’s Secret was an all-time favorite of mine. Along the way, I appreciated her trainer more and more as I learned of his work ethic and saw more of him aside from being the trainer of so many outstanding horses.

As the years went by, I became a true fan as Lukas aged. I also got to know him personally a bit in the last few decades of his life. A man’s man, he also had a warm and generous side. He was an excellent ambassador and an even better example for anyone involved in the sport of horse racing. Not seeing him on horseback in the mornings and at the track in the afternoons will leave a large void. Rest in peace, D. Wayne.

Matt: No doubt that Lukas changed as he aged. As he got older, he mellowed and embraced the role of racing’s elder statesman and did it better than anybody ever had. All of us can only hope that we will be able to have full and active lives up to the very end at a ripe old age. The thought of him on his pony every day in the wee hours of the morning will be the image of him that stays with me, warms my heart, makes me smile and inspires me.

Brian: The Suburban discussion clearly starts with Locked. Two races back he was a dominant winner going the 10-furlong distance in the prestigious Big 'Cap. Shortened up last time, he was no match for his champion stablemate Fierceness in the 8 1/2-furlong Alysheba. There is not a great deal of speed in here to set the table for his rally but probably just enough for him to be in position as they turn for home. The Todd Pletcher runner is the one to beat on Friday.

Matt: According to the conditions of the race, the Suburban serves as a prep race for the Aug. 31 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), and both are run at 1 1/4 miles. Locked is one of the horses who will benefit from the opportunity to run 10 furlongs again. Honor Marie looked great last year on the Kentucky Derby trail but then fizzled in the Belmont Stakes and the Travers (G1). His most recent start was a victory in a 1 1/2-mile stakes at Churchill, so maybe in the Suburban he will be full of run when others are not handling the distance.

Brian: The top two horses coming out of the Pimlico Special (G3) both are in with a shot here. As mentioned, there isn’t much speed, and both Awesome Aaron and Phileas Fogg have the ability to control the race from the break. Both are experienced runners in the best form of their careers. Speed is always dangerous even at this distance, and if the two are allowed to relax early in first and second, they each become dangerous. Can either go all the way? Probably only if Locked does not come with his best.

Matt: The pace projector agrees with you, Brian, that Phileas Fogg, breaking from the rail, and Awesome Marie from post position 8 are likely to go to the lead. Awesome Marie earned two big speed figures in his most recent starts and is a definite contender. Phileas Fogg on the other hand faces a significant class challenge.

Brian: I believe Locked’s stablemate Antiquarian is the wild card of the race. He was a nice 3-year-old, winning the Peter Pan (G3) in his fourth career start, but a cut below the best when he ran at Saratoga in the Belmont Stakes. On the shelf after that, he returned with two sharp efforts. That second-place finish in the Blame Stakes (G3), splitting Mystik Dan and Post Time, was excellent considering he bore out on the turn. If he can get the distance on Friday, he is a major threat. His last workout was excellent.

Matt: The distance looks like a really big question for Antiquarian. Bendoog is a consistent type with 16 top-three finishes from 20 starts, including a second in the Suburban last year after having the lead in the stretch. From the barn of Bill Mott, he could be a long shot to use underneath.

Brian: The Belmont Derby is truly an interesting betting affair. A viable case could be made for every horse in the race. The two horses coming out of the American Turf (G1), Test Score and New Century, seem like a logical place to start. They both sport solid career records and are proven in Grade 1 company. They both ran well last time out against a deep and talented field at Churchill Downs, rallying for second and third behind the classy Zulu Kingdom. Either winning would come as no surprise.

Matt: Test Score comes from the barn of Graham Motion, and New Century recently joined the U.S. barn of Brian Walsh. Test Score ran the b

HorseCenter: Top picks for Stephen Foster, Wise Dan

Wed, 25 Jun 2025 23:37:54 GMT

This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman visit Churchill Downs for a huge card of racing topped by the Grade 1, $1 million Stephen Foster. No less than six millionaires are in the field, with last year’s champion 3-year-old male Sierra Leone and the highly regarded Mindframe likely to vie for favoritism. 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Hit Show lead the opposition in the star-studded, 1 1/8-mile affair.

The second race covered in detail by your HorseCenter hosts will be the $500,000 Wise Dan Stakes (G2). The one-mile test on the turf has attracted a wide-open field of nine. A rematch between Mercante and Brilliant Berti after their heated stretch duel in the Arlington (G3) is the headliner, but several others led by Mi Hermano Ramon and Fort Washington are in with a chance.

Matt and Brian also discuss some of the other highlights from this loaded afternoon of racing under the famed twin spires. Highlighting the undercard will be the 2024 horse of the year Thorpedo Anna. The 4-year-old filly will look to return to her winning ways when she tops the $500,000 Fleur de Lis (G2).

Brian: Before we get into handicapping two excellent races, let’s talk about some of the other highlights from this excellent card of racing. Although she has won 10-of-13 lifetime, including six Grade 1 victories, Thorpedo Anna might be at a crossroad in her career. She was banged pretty hard heading into the first turn of the La Troienne (G1) and came up empty when the real running began. Will she bounce back on Saturday?

I expect to see the 2024 horse of the year come back with a strong effort after eight weeks between races. Gin Gin, Royal Spa and Taxed all come into this one off strong graded-stakes form, but if Thorpedo Anna runs her race, they will all be running for place money. Some people already have given up on the champion after a whopping one-race losing streak. I believe that will be proven a mistake.

Matt: Winning streaks are so rare in Thoroughbred racing that even the best horses lose. Sometimes when a horse is in top form and is expected to win, they can still lose because of bad racing luck.

In the case of Thorpedo Anna’s loss in the La Troienne, trainer Kenny McPeek was quick to take the blame for bringing her back with only three weeks of rest. So the champion has a valid excuse for her performance on the first Friday in May. I expect her to bounce back to her winning ways with almost two months between starts this time, although you just never know what might happen.

Brian: Two other highlights on Saturday’s six-stakes card include Booth and Tiztastic. The former has looked like one of the top sprinters in the country while winning four straight stakes for trainer Steve Asmussen. He should get a good test in the 6 1/2-furlong Kelly’s Landing. Among his competition is a classy invader from the West Coast, Dr. Venkman. The 5-year-old gelding made a nice return to the races last time, finishing second to the talented Nysos at Santa Anita.

Meanwhile in the American Derby, Tiztastic will return to the turf where he is unbeaten in two tries. The son of Tiz the Law had trouble when finishing mid-pack in the Kentucky Derby last time, but before that he showed his class as the winner of the Louisiana Derby (G2). It’s interesting that he is switching back to turf now, and it could be a sign that he is even better on the grass. Last-out stakes winners Reagan’s Wit and Freedom’s Not Free should give him a real test here.

Matt: Booth is riding an impressive winning streak that includes a trio of Grade 3 stakes at Oaklawn and Pimlico. He had a layoff from April to December and now has run seven times in the last six months. Steve Asmussen knows how to keep older horses in top form as well as any trainer in the country.

I want to give a shout out to Three Technique, who joins Booth in the Kelly’s Landing. The 8-year-old has 40 starts in his career with earnings of $1.2 million. He has moved from allowances to stakes and got his second graded stakes in September in the Ack Ack (G3).

Brian: With six very classy older males in the field, this edition of the Stephen Foster should be a fun one. Despite losing his only start this year, I still consider Sierra Leone the one to beat. The Breeders’ Cup Classic winner was against the pace dynamic last time, and I expect him to do better on Saturday. Having said that, he will have to against this field. The good news is that the confirmed late runner will have more pace to set up his rally here.

Matt: This is an excellent running of the Foster with a field that has six graded-stakes winners and each has over $1 million in earnings. Four of them have at least one victory in a Grade or Group 1, including the winner of America’s two most important races in the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Together the field from the older male dirt division has 38 wins and has won $25.8 million on the track.

Brian: If Sierra Leone is not the favorite in the Foster then it will be Mindframe. He has done little wrong in his six-race career and comes in off a sharp victory in the seven-furlong Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) last time. He is unbeaten at Churchill Downs and the son of Constitution should have no problem with the stretch out back to nine furlongs. He never could get past Dornoch in his two longest races last year, but we might see a more mature version of the Repole runner on Saturday.

Matt: Brian, I feel like if there is a horse in this Foster field who has not had his best race it would be Mindframe. With only six career starts, he is a Grade 1 winner. He began his career with two open-length victories. He ran well when he lost to Dornoch, the best 3-year-old at the time, in the Haskell (G1) and the Belmont Stakes. Mindframe won both of his 2025 races, and that seven-furlong Grade 1 win on the first Saturday in May sets him up perfectly to face the challenge of the Foster.

Brian: I generally am not a fan of horses making their first start since Dubai against strong competition, but it’s hard to ignore Hit Show. Not only does the experienced son of Candy Ride like to win, but he has also won five straight races when Florent Geroux is in the saddle. They will pair up again as they did in the winning venture of the $12 million Dubai World Cup. He will not be my top pick, but he must be respected.

Matt: I definitely consider Hit Show to be a win contender. After that lucrative victory in the Dubai World Cup, he is the leading money winner in this field with $8.4 million in career earnings. He has eight top-three finishes in his last nine starts at six tracks around the world. But in this accomplished field, I have to say that I like others better in the top spot.

Brian: Ignore the Kentucky Derby winner at your own risk. His memorable score over Sierra Leone and Forever Young in last year’s run for the roses came over this main track at Churchill Downs, and last time out in the Blame Stakes (G3) he proved that he likes this surface. After going off form for a few races, the son of Goldencents is back and is a dangerous horse in thi

HorseCenter: Mid-Season awards & Ohio Derby top picks

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 19:18:22 GMT

With the completion of the Triple Crown signaling the unofficial midpoint of 2025, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman recap the first half of the racing season by handing out their coveted HorseCenter Mid-Season Awards.

Will victories in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes be enough for Sovereignty to reign supreme, or will an older horse sneak into the position as the Mid-Season Horse of the Year on the HorseCenter ballots?

Matt and Brian also will take their annual visit to Thistledown for the Grade 3, $500,000 Ohio Derby as their race of the week. The nine-furlong test is topped by the speedy son of American Pharoah, Clever Again, who suffered his first career defeat last time in the Preakness Stakes.

3-year-old male

Brian: Sovereignty - The strapping son of Into Mischief may have lost the Florida Derby (G1), but that was just a prep for bigger things to come. Wins in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes over an excellent rival in Journalism point him out as one of the best sophomores we have seen in recent years. Skipping the Preakness was a disappointment, but you can’t argue with his four races this year.

Matt: Sovereignty – The team of Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado made all the right moves with Sovereignty and that includes the Florida Derby. His two wins in the Triple Crown races were impressive and convincing that he is the best 3-year-old ahead of another excellent horse in Journalism. More great performances should be expected for a horse that has an imposing physical presence.

3-year-old filly

Brian: Nitrogen - This is an interesting choice between Nitrogen and Good Cheer. I won’t hold the Acorn flop too much against the Kentucky Oaks winner, but I still like what Nitrogen has done this year even better. The Medaglia d’Oro filly has been increasingly dominant in four straight stakes wins on the grass, and despite it being a three-horse field, she ran big in the off-the-turf Wonder Again (G3). Now 5-for-5 this year, interesting options await this filly.

Matt: Nitrogen – What a dilemma having to choose between a filly that had a seven-race winning streak and another that just won for the fifth time in a row. It would be easy to make a case for either one of them as top sophomore female. Good Cheer thrived on the wet track for the Kentucky Oaks, but not all off tracks are the same as she did very little running at Saratoga after soaking rains turned the track into a sloppy mess. Bottom line is that Nitrogen won the head-to-head meeting and was so impressive moving from turf to dirt.

Older male

Brian: Raging Torrent - Although he has only run once in America so far this year, this Doug O’Neill-trainee won the right one when he beat Fierceness and White Abarrio in the Met Mile (G1). As an American-based runner, I will also give him credit for his win in the Godolphin Mile (G2) overseas. It is obviously a division that will be decided in the second half, but for now Raging Torrent is on top.

Matt: Raging Torrent – When I was at Saratoga for the Belmont Racing Festival, the win by Raging Torrent was one of the most impressive since he defeated the top two ranked older male horses in the Met Mile. I collected a few wagers on him because of his record for the past year when he won 6 out of 7 races getting better with each start. I know that the wins in 2024 do not count in these kind of awards, but his last two victories are enough.

Older female

Brian: Thorpedo Anna - The 2024 Horse of the Year disappointed for the first time in a long time last out in the La Troienne (G1) after being crunched heading into the first turn. I am hoping that she can return to her best again next time out, but for now her easy wins in the Azeri (G2) and Apple Blossom (G1) are enough to have her on top through the first half.

Matt: Thorpedo Anna – I do not hold the loss in the La Troienne against Thorpedo Anna. To this day I do not understand why her trainer ran her on short rest when more sensible targets were available at racetracks where she turned in outstanding performances. I hope that last year’s champ will be able to bounce back in the second half of the year. She still has the best resume in the older female division though.

Turf male

Brian: Far Bridge - In a wide-open division, I am going with the distance horse who had to shorten up to nin4-furlongs in the Manhattan (G1) and still almost won. He won two graded stakes at more preferred distances before that, and will be back running long in the near future. Much like his sire, the son of English Channel has become all class as he has matured.

Matt: Spirit of St Louis – Far Bridge and Spirit of St Louis have the best resumes in the division but the latter has a pair of Grade 1 victories which makes him my pick for the mid-season award. Deterministic is an up and comer after winning the Manhattan at Saratoga. We are talking about a division where the likely outcome of the Mile and the Turf at the Breeders’ Cup is that Europeans will be the winners.

Turf female

Brian: She Feels Pretty - She is best on firm turf, but still she was able to roll to another victory in the rain softened New York (G1). Her four-race winning streak has been dominant and comes at three different distances and at four different tracks. The Cherie DeVaux-trained daughter of Karakontie stands alone in this division right now.

Matt: She Feels Pretty - No argument from me, Brian. She Feels Pretty is so much the best. The 3-year-old filly Nitrogen might be my second choice.

Sprinter

Brian: Book’em Danno - Don’t be fooled by the Grade 3 label, his victory in the True North was Grade 1 quality. While others in this division will be stretching out in distance, I see the consistent New Jersey-bred as the best sprinter in the land. I am looking forward to a long and successful career for this classy gelding, who has started his 4-year-old season in top form.

Matt: Raging Torrent – This is an easy category for me. Raging Torrent’s win in the Met Mile gives him the mid-season award. He won the most prestigious one-turn race of the year beating a stellar field at Saratoga.

Female sprinter

Brian: Kopion - After finishing off 2024 with a powerhouse win in the La Brea, this Richard Mandella-trained filly has kept things rolling this year with two equally impressive victories. Take note that the daughter of Omaha Beach actually ran faster than Mindframe in her win on Kentucky Derby Day.

Matt: Kopion – Two more graded stakes wins for Kopion this year, including the Derby City Distaff (G1) by three-lengths where her closing move down the stretch made the other horses look like they were standing still. I cannot even think of another one to consider.

Horse of the year

Brian: Sovereignty - There’s no doubt about it for me, Matt. The 3-year-old males were the stars of the show in the first half of the season. Sovereignty has been terrific in four starts and was ready to shine on the biggest stages at Churchill Downs and Saratoga. Hope