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Division rankings: Fade Baeza at your peril in Pennsylvania Derby

Tue, 16 Sep 2025 16:46:48 GMT

You could look at this weekend’s Pennsylvania Derby in two very different ways. Through a jaded lens, it’s one of the softest Grade 1 fields we’ve seen this late in the season. Ten entries, 75 starts, and just one Grade 2 win with three Grade 3s among them. But when we dive deeper and perhaps with the aid of rose-colored glasses, you might see this field as a sneaky-good Pennsylvania Derby despite those numbers.

I’m leaning toward the sneaky-good angle. Three of my top five 3-year-old males are entered, and even with the light résumé in terms of graded wins, these three runners are proven commodities, legitimate players in a 3-year-old male division that suddenly has become top-heavy.

Despite what some might think, Baeza is clearly the horse to beat, with only two others posing any real threat to upset him. Baeza rolls into the weekend planted at no. 3 in the division, with only Sovereignty and Journalism above him in my rankings.

I’ll dig into the race itself in a moment, but first, here’s how the 3-year-old males stack up heading into the last major two-turn race of the season restricted to this division.

3-year-old males

1. Sovereignty. He steamrolled an overmatched Travers (G1) and now looms a single win from horse of the year. His résumé has swelled with each start, placing him among the most decorated Derby winners since American Pharoah. The Breeders’ Cup Classic awaits, a race that will settle horse of the year.

2. Journalism. He entered the Pacific Classic (G1) desperate for a win to keep his Eclipse hopes alive but never got close to Fierceness and wound up a distant second. Even so, his season remains solid, though he seems to have leveled off. The Breeders’ Cup Classic looms as a possible next target.

3. Baeza. After pouring everything into the Jim Dandy (G2) and falling a length shy of Sovereignty, he’s still chasing that elusive first stakes victory. Even so, he’s entrenched in the top three of his division. The Pennsylvania Derby awaits, and anything less than a win will disappoint.

4. Gosger. If not for Journalism’s brilliance, he already woul be a two-time Grade 1 winner. Instead, he comes into the Pennsylvania Derby off gritty runner-up finishes in the Preakness and Haskell (G1), with a Lexington (G3) win earlier this season.

5. Goal Oriented. Still searching for his first stakes win, he showed plenty in the Preakness and Haskell, and I like his chances in this weekend’s Pennsylvania Derby.

Next 5: Burnham Square, Chunk of Gold, Magnitude, Coal Battle, Patch Adams.

Plenty of ink has been spilled trying to poke holes in Baeza, but calling him a “default” favorite is a stretch worthy of a yoga class. He’s a battle-tested colt who has danced nearly every big dance this division has offered. Depending on which speed figures you use, Baeza stands tall over this field. Although a couple of his rivals might have posted a shinier number in a race or two by some metrics, they did it in friendlier spots where the water was far shallower. Those numbers don’t tell the whole story. Context matters, and Baeza’s numbers were forged while sparring with the two best in the division, Sovereignty and Journalism.

Needing much better than his 2-1 morning-line odds to consider him a win bet is cute but also untethered from how real money gets made. Call him an underlay if you must, but on class, consistency and proven grit, Baeza is the horse they all have to get past. And with an abundance of early speed entered, he figures to get a favorable trip.

So who actually has a shot to upend him? Only two.

With a bit more racing luck, Gosger could be a two-time Grade 1 winner already. After just missing to Journalism in the Preakness, he ran his heart out again in the Haskell, dropping a half-length decision to that same rival. What impressed me most was how he outdueled a game Goal Oriented for the runner-up spot. With the right trip, he could be right there again at the wire.

Goal Oriented, meanwhile, is still a lightly raced colt with upside. After winning his first two starts, he jumped straight into the deep end in the Preakness, finishing a solid fourth despite checking hard in the stretch. Back in the Haskell, he dug in gamely and was narrowly edged for second after sitting close throughout. This will be only his fifth start, and I see him as the biggest threat to Baeza.

As for the rest, I’ll go out on a limb. None of them look capable of toppling the big three. Heading into the Travers, I saw Magnitude as the one most likely to give Sovereignty a real challenge, but he’s a textbook example of a horse who popped a big number against soft company and wilted when the water got deep, fading by 20 lengths.

Remarkably, for all the talent shown by Baeza, Gosger and Goal Oriented, they own just a single Grade 3 win between them. That changes this weekend.

Older dirt males

1. Mindframe. He was fortunate to come out of a chaotic Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) unscathed and keeps his place at the top for now, but all eyes now turn to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. As much respect as he commands, it’s hard to picture him winning the Classic off a four-month layoff.

2. Sierra Leone. In the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Sierra Leone delivered a huge effort after veering hard to dodge the fallen rider of Mindframe. Flavien Prat nearly pulled him up, but once the colt seemed sound around the first turn, he pressed on, even from 18 lengths back. Despite losing several lengths because of the trouble, Sierra Leone closed for second, beaten just over a length. He’s still one of only three runners with a real shot at dethroning Sovereignty in the Classic and matching Tiznow as the lone two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner.

3. Fierceness. He showed plenty in his Pacific Classic win, overcoming a near-disastrous start before seizing command mid-race and never looking back. Clearly at home at Del Mar, if he brings his A game to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he’ll be tough to reel in. He joins the short list of three with a legitimate chance to stop Sovereignty.

4. Nysos. His scratch from the Pacific Classic ended any realistic Eclipse hopes in this division. Connections now aim for the Goodwood (G1) later this month, though he hasn’t logged a published work since August 21. If he skips the Goodwood, he’ll slide in these rankings. Could his team consider training him straight up to the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile?

5. Antiquarian. He came out on top in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and has built a solid season, adding placings in the Suburban (G2) and Blame (G3). I’m not convinced he’s truly of this caliber, but like the 3-year-old ranks, this group is top-heavy, with a sizable gap between the top tier and the rest.

Next five: Highland Falls, White Abarrio, Locked, Hit Show, Phileas Fogg.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Credit where it’s due, she simply knows how to win. Her gritty nose score over Dorth Vader in the Personal Ensign (G1) likely locked up another Eclipse, giving her four wins from five

Division rankings: Sorting out the 2-year-olds

Wed, 10 Sep 2025 09:27:10 GMT

This week I finally take a crack at making sense of the 2-year-olds, sorting through the results and, more importantly, relying on the eye test. Ranking these juveniles before Labor Day never makes much sense, so I’ve always held off until after the Del Mar Futurity, traditionally run on or just after Labor Day, to roll out the initial 2-year-old male and female rankings.

Much of the spotlight in last week’s Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity was on the much-hyped Brant making his second start, but I went in a different direction when deciding who sits atop the 2-year-old male rankings. And just like with the colts, you could make a case for several fillies, but I chose to start with an East Coast runner on top.

With that, here are the initial 2-year-old rankings, and I’ll share more of my early thoughts on some of them below.

2-year-old males

1. Ted Noffey. Really showed me a lot in that Grade 1 Hopeful win, which was extraordinary. Excited to see him in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) for his next start at Keeneland as I don't think the added distance will be his downfall.

2. Ewing. Won the Saratoga Special (G2) last out and is unbeaten in two starts. Will next at Keeneland in the Breeders' Futurity.

3. It's Our Time. I rarely rank a maiden winner this high or even at all, but with 2-year-olds, the rankings can be volatile from week to week. He earned this spot by demolishing a Saratoga maiden field of eight others by more than 17 lengths, posting a sharp figure in the process.

4. Brant. The hype horse in the division, but I am not convinced. He was 1-9 in the Del Mar Futurity but had to work hard to score a one-length win over Desert Gate. As he goes longer I expect he will find things even tougher.

5. Desert Gate. The Best Pal (G3) winner ran very well in the Del Mar Futurity, closing the gap on Brant to drop a one-length decision. He would be a serious player in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile if he runs there.

Next 5: Comport, Civil Liberty, Buetane, Curtain Call, Boyd.

2-year-old fillies

1. Tommy Jo. Impressive in her first two career starts, her last out being a six-length score in the Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga.

2. Bottle of Rouge. The Del Mar Debutante (G1) winner drove clear late for the win. She is 2-for-3 in her career thus far.

3. Explora. The Debutante favorite didn't run poorly when finishing second and should be better around two turns.

4. Time to Dream. It might surprise a few to see her ranked this high, but she is 2-for-2 in her career on the grass, both at Saratoga, with her last coming in the listed P. G. Johnson Stakes.

5. Himika. Expected more from her last out in the Del Mar Debutante where she checked in fourth. Before that she won the Sorrento (G3) at Del Mar

Next 5: Dazzling Dame, La Wally, Percy's Bar, Mythical, Chopsticks.

At the top of the 2-year-old male division is the impressive Ted Noffey. His Hopeful win was outstanding in every respect, leaving the impression that added distance in upcoming races should pose no problem. To this point, he’s been the most impressive juvenile of the season.

Out west, much has been made of Brant, but I have him no better than No. 4 this week. The Del Mar Futurity field was composed entirely of runners from just two barns, and as the 1-9 favorite, he had to work far harder than expected to get the job done.

Debuting at No. 3 is It’s Our Time, who owns only a maiden win, but what a maiden win it was. His Saratoga romp by more than 17 lengths in fast time was eye-catching, and although he’s playing catch-up for now, he could have plenty to say in this division before the season is done.

On the female side, Tommy Jo debuts on top after her runaway victory in the Spinaway. She’s now 2-for-2 to start her career and, like Ted Noffey, looks like a filly who will only get better with added distance.

Bottle of Rouge jumps into the rankings after her Del Mar Debutante win, upsetting the favorite and No. 3 ranked Explora. She has put together two straight wins since finishing runner-up to Himika in her debut.

Himika checks in at No. 5, perhaps a touch high after finishing fourth in the Debutante. Still, her earlier score in the Sorrento (G3) keeps her in the mix for now.

As I’ve said before, these 2-year-old rankings are volatile and can change overnight. Don’t be surprised if the picture looks very different after this weekend’s juvenile stakes

Older dirt males

1. Mindframe. He was very fortunate to escape unscathed from a disastrous Jockey Club Gold Cup. He retains his place at the top for now, but the focus shifts to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Still, as much respect as he commands, it’s hard to envision him winning the Classic coming in off a four-month layoff.

2. Sierra Leone. Ran a remarkable race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) after having to veer hard to his right near the start to avoid the fallen jock who was aboard Mindframe. Jockey Flavien Prat nearly pulled Sierra Leone up, but after the colt appeared fine around the first turn, he let him continue despite being 18 lengths back at one point in the race. Considering the chaos, where most believe he lost five to seven lengths, Sierra Leone still managed to rally for second, beaten just over a length. He remains one of only three with a legitimate chance to topple Sovereignty in the Classic and to join Tiznow as the only back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Classic winners.

3. Fierceness. He really showed me something in his Pacific Classic (G1) win, overcoming a near-disastrous start before surging to the lead mid-race and never looking back. Clearly at home at Del Mar, if he delivers his A game in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he’ll be awfully tough to reel in. He joins the short list of three with a legitimate chance to stop Sovereignty.

4. Nysos. His scratch from the Pacific Classic ended any realistic Eclipse hopes in this division. Connections now point to the Goodwood (G1) later this month, which might prove a better stepping stone. Rather than stretching from 8 1/2 to 10 furlongs, he’ll get the nine-furlong test of the Goodwood. A strong showing there would earn him a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

5. Antiquarian. He emerged as the winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup and has quietly put together a solid season, with placings in the Suburban (G2) and Blame (G3). I’m still not convinced he truly belongs at this level. But much like the 3-year-old division, this group is extremely top-heavy, with a significant gap between the top four and everyone else

Next five: Highland Falls, White Abarrio, Locked, Hit Show, Phileas Fogg.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Credit where it’s due, she just wins. Last out, she dug in to edge Dorth Vader by a nose in the Personal Ensign (G1), all but clinching another Eclipse with her fourth win in five starts this season. There might still be a contender or two out west with something to say in this division, but she simply keeps finding ways to get it done. Likely to run next in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland.

2. Seismic Beauty. Scored a nice win last out in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1), going wire to wire. Clearly the fastest horse in the division on paper in 2025, she will be

Division rankings: Breeders’ Cup Classic sharpens into focus

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 18:58:11 GMT

Last weekend’s Pacific Classic and Jockey Club Gold Cup promised fireworks. At Del Mar, the popular No. 2 ranked 3-year-old Journalism was to face two of the top older males, Fierceness and Nysos. And at Saratoga, the stage was set for a showdown between the division’s top older dirt males, Mindframe and Sierra Leone.

But when the dust settled, it was less about the storylines and more about relief that catastrophe had been avoided in both of these Grade 1 races.

In the Pacific Classic, the matchup lost some luster when Nysos scratched and nearly unraveled when Fierceness ducked in sharply to his left after the break, narrowly missing the temporary rail. Meanwhile, the Jockey Club Gold Cup turned chaotic. Mindframe lost his rider, White Abarrio briefly carried two jockeys, and Sierra Leone was forced to veer sharply to avoid the fallen rider, nearly being pulled up himself before continuing on.

Despite the chaos, the Breeders’ Cup Classic picture is, in my opinion, much clearer now. When the gates open at Del Mar, it appears only three horses have a realistic chance to dethrone the expected favorite, Sovereignty.

I’ll get to which three in a moment, but first, here’s an updated look at the older dirt male and 3-year-old male rankings.

Older dirt males

2. Sierra Leone. Ran a remarkable race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup after having to veer hard to his right near the start to avoid the fallen jock who was aboard Mindframe. Jockey Flavien Prat nearly pulled Sierra Leone up, but after the colt appeared fine around the first turn, he let him continue despite being 18 lengths back at one point in the race. Considering the chaos, where most believe he lost five to seven lengths, Sierra Leone still managed to rally for second, beaten just over a length. He remains one of only three with a legitimate chance to topple Sovereignty in the Classic and to join Tiznow as the only back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Classic winners.

3. Fierceness. He really showed me something in his Pacific Classic win, overcoming a near-disastrous start before surging to the lead midrace and never looking back. Clearly at home at Del Mar, if he delivers his A game in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he’ll be awfully tough to reel in. He joins the short list of three with a legitimate chance to stop Sovereignty.

Next five: Highland Falls, White Abarrio, Locked, Hit Show, Phileas Fogg.

3-year-old males

1. Sovereignty. He dominated an overmatched Travers field and now sits just one win away from horse of the year. His résumé has grown with each start, and he now stands as the most accomplished Kentucky Derby winner post-Derby since American Pharoah. He’ll train up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, where the divisional Eclipse might hang in the balance and horse of the year certainly will.

2. Journalism. Best of the rest in the Pacific Classic, but his loss to Fierceness probably dashed any hopes of staying in this Eclipse race.

3. Baeza. Ran his heart out in the Jim Dandy (G2) only to be second best, dropping a one-length decision to Sovereignty. Still in search of his first stakes win, but he is clearly in the top three of his division despite that fact. Expected next in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1).

4. Gosger. Would be a dual Grade 1 winner if not for the heroics of Journalism. His last two starts, the Preakness and Haskell, have been solid runner-up finishes. Won the Lexington (G3) this season. Will run next in the Pennsylvania Derby.

5. Goal Oriented. Hasn't won a stakes race yet but has run extremely well in the Preakness and then the Haskell. Will run next in the Pennsylvania Derby.

Next 5: Burnham Square, Chunk of Gold, Magnitude, Coal Battle, Patch Adams.

With Mindframe now confirmed to train up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic after escaping unscathed from the Jockey Club Gold Cup fiasco, the question lingers, can he really win the Classic with his last meaningful race back in June? My answer is simple, no. My apologies to Mindframe fans, but that’s my opinion. I just find it implausible that any horse can win the Breeders’ Cup Classic coming off a 128-day layoff. So that leaves three horses with a realistic shot to defeat Sovereignty.

Sierra Leone is one of them. His runner-up effort in the chaotic Jockey Club Gold Cup was remarkable, and he remains a serious Classic contender. Like Sovereignty, he shows up every time, with a similar running style and speed figures that are comparable. If there’s a horse capable of matching Sovereignty’s late punch, it’s Sierra Leone.

He’s been out of the spotlight for months, but Japan’s Forever Young is set to return on Oct. 1 in the Nippon TV Cup at Funabashi, the same race Japan’s Ushba Tesoro used as his final prep before the 2023 Breeders’ Cup. I expect Forever Young to come back even better than he was last winter. And if he reproduces the form he flashed in the Saudi Cup (G1), he’s a serious threat. Like Sovereignty and Sierra Leone, he does his best running from off the pace.

Last but not least, the biggest threat to Sovereignty is Fierceness if he fires his best.

Unlike the others, his greatest weapon is speed. Ten seconds into the Pacific Classic, nearly all of his supporters must have thought his chances were gone. After veering sharply left and nearly slamming into the temporary rail, it looked like the old knock on Fierceness, that he needs everything to go his way to run big, was about to be proven right once again. I’ll admit, I was among the doubters. But Fierceness had other ideas.

Fierceness didn’t just overcome the Pacific Classic adversity, he thrived in it. Making a bold midrace move from inside and behind horses, he surged to the front, opened up two lengths turning for home and widened to more than three at the wire. Journalism never threatened and settled for a distant second. In his 12 prior starts, we hadn’t seen this version of Fierceness. This was a different horse. And come Nov. 1, his ability to get involved early could well be the difference.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Credit where it’s due, she just wins. Last out, she dug in to edge Dorth Vader by a nose in the Personal Ensign (G1), a

Division rankings: Journalism faces stiff test in Pacific Classic

Wed, 27 Aug 2025 20:49:20 GMT

Two or three decades ago, my favorite part of the racing season was when star 3-year-old males tested themselves against older horses in a top-level race. Back then, it wasn’t unusual to see it as early as Memorial Day in the Met Mile, when that race was still a holiday staple. If not the Met Mile, then the Whitney or the Iselin, back when the Iselin still carried real weight on the calendar. Those were the good old days.

Sadly, the days of star 3-year-olds tackling their elders before the Breeders’ Cup are fading fast, which makes this year’s Grade 1 Pacific Classic a real treat. Journalism, the clear no. 2 among 3-year-old males, heads to Del Mar for a fascinating edition of the race, where the highly regarded Nysos and the enigmatic, East Coast-based Fierceness await him in the gate.

On the heels of Sovereignty’s dominant Travers (G1) victory, Journalism has a chance to get back in the spotlight with a win over what might be the toughest duo any 3-year-old has faced this season.

There’s plenty on the line this weekend. A Journalism defeat would all but clinch the 3-year-old Eclipse for Sovereignty, and a Nysos victory would shift the storyline and propel him directly into the older dirt male Eclipse race heading toward the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Not to be forgotten in New York, the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) brings together the older dirt male division’s top two, Mindframe and Sierra Leone, in a clash that has major Eclipse and horse-of-the-year implications.

Both races are run over the same 10-furlong distance as the Breeders' Cup Classic this fall.

We’ll get to both of these races shortly, but first, here’s how the 3-year-old males and older dirt males stack up heading into the weekend.

3-year-old males

2. Journalism. Showed up again in a big Grade 1 event and delivered, this time in the Haskell. His three top-level scores this season are tied as the most of any in this division. Will go this weekend in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, where he is in a must-win situation over older horses to stay in this Eclipse race.

5. Goal Oriented. Hasn't won a stakes race yet but has run extremely well in the Preakness and then the Haskell. Will run next in the Pennsylvania Derby.

Next 5: Sandman, Burnham Square, Chunk of Gold, Magnitude, Coal Battle.

Older dirt males

1. Mindframe. He kept his unbeaten 2025 campaign rolling with a popular win in the Stephen Foster (G1), planting his flag atop the older dirt male division for now. But he gives off strong Liam’s Map vibes, very good up to nine furlongs but unlikely to stretch his game to classic territory. His connections whiffed on a prime chance to widen his divisional lead when he was scratched from the Whitney (G1), leaving the stage to stablemate Fierceness, who finished off the board. He’s back at it this weekend in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where a victory would all but give him a stranglehold and perhaps an insurmountable lead in the division, depending on what unfolds out west

2. Sierra Leone. He fired yet another bullet in a major, this time in the Whitney at Saratoga, toppling a strong field and launching himself right back into the Eclipse and horse-of-the-year conversation. He is the only horse in training with a real shot at going back to back in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but somehow, the critics still chirp. This weekend brings the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where a win over Mindframe would leave no doubt about who sits atop this division.

3. Nysos. With two wins from three starts this year, Nysos reminded everyone why the Baffert camp has been so high on him, cruising home last out in the San Diego (G2) at Del Mar. Next up, the 10-furlong Pacific Classic and a test to see whether his brilliance can stretch the extra distance. If he passes this test, he could crash the Breeders’ Cup Classic party in November.

4. Fierceness. No real excuses for his off-the-board finish in the Whitney, and you have to wonder if he’s the same horse since his surgery last December. His calling card has been inconsistency, so don’t be surprised if he bounces back and runs well this weekend in the Pacific Classic.

5. Highland Falls. In his second start of 2025, he turned in a solid effort in the Whitney, finishing a game runner-up to Sierra Leone. Still, it’s hard to be fully convinced he belongs at this level, but like the 3-year-old ranks, this division is extremely top-heavy

Next five: White Abarrio, Locked, Banishing, Hit Show, Phileas Fogg.

Nysos has long been synonymous with big expectations, expectations that began with his dominating 10 1/2-length romp in his debut in the fall of 2023. Installed as last year's Kentucky Derby favorite after another romp in his 3-year-old debut, Nysos disappeared from the scene when an injury sidelined him for the rest of the season.

It’s been a long road back for Nysos, but remarkably, he now stands on the brink of a career-defining moment in the Pacific Classic.

Returning in early May, he quieted plenty of doubters in May at Churchill Downs, where, after 15 months on the sidelines, he returned to run a courageous runner-up in the Churchill Down Stakes (G1), finishing ahead of sprint star Book’em Danno and just a neck behind Mindframe, the leader of the older dirt male division. He hasn’t missed a beat since, cruising past overmatched rivals in his next two starts.

On Saturday, the Pacific Classic brings a new challenge, the distance. At 1 1/4 miles, it will stretch him farther than ever before, his longest race to date being 8 1/2 furlongs. The question on everyone’s mind is whether Nysos can sustain his brilliance over the 10 furlongs.

If he can, and if he does it with the same authority as his past wins, he’ll flip the narrative heading into the Breeders’ Cup Classic and vault himself into Eclipse contention.

Since undergoing surgery after the 2024 season, Fierceness hasn’t quite looked like the same horse. His last start produced a no-excuse, off-the-board finish in the Whitney, and his career has been defined by brilliance one day and clunkers the next. Still, few would be shocked if the light flicked back on at Del Mar, t

Division rankings: Magnitude is a different test for Sovereignty

Wed, 20 Aug 2025 21:08:31 GMT

This week I arrived at a fork in the road. Should I shine the spotlight on the Grade 1 Personal Ensign with top-ranked Thorpedo Anna or stick with the 3-year-old males who have had the spotlight most of the season? I chose the Travers (G1).

Thorpedo Anna can wait. If she wins, she’ll get her turn next week.

Judging by the Travers headlines this week, you’d think it was already over. With Sovereignty entered and Baeza and Journalism skipping the 3,000-mile trip to Sovereignty’s home base for spots elsewhere, the narrative paints the Travers as a one-horse race, a coronation for the Kentucky Derby and Belmont champ.

The truth is, this Travers is no walkover. Sovereignty faces what he hasn’t all season, a legitimate, controlling speed horse in Magnitude.

I’ll get back to more Travers thoughts in a bit, but first, the 3-year-old male rankings. It’s a top-heavy bunch, with Sovereignty firmly on top and Magnitude at No. 4.

3-year-old males

1. Sovereignty. Handled his business in the Jim Dandy (G2) and now heads to a Travers that has its smallest field since 1994. Remember when skipping the Preakness was supposed to elevate the Travers or when some insisted the “real” Triple Crown was the Derby, Belmont and Travers? That aged well. I’ll stick with what I have written before, this Eclipse still runs through the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the top two ranked here.

2. Journalism. Showed up again in a big Grade 1 event and delivered, this time in the Haskell. His three top-level scores this season are the most of any in this division. Likely to go next in the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar.

3. Baeza. Ran his heart out in the Jim Dandy only to be second best, dropping a one-length decision to Sovereignty. Still in search of his first stakes win, but he is clearly in the top three of his division despite that fact. Will skip the Travers and likely wait for the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) next.

4. Magnitude. I’m bumping this guy all the way into the top five, even if his Iowa Derby comeback was basically a glorified allowance win. Before that, he romped in the Risen Star (G2) over a sloppy Fair Grounds track with an eye-popping figure. If you trust the numbers, he’s right there with the division’s top three. And as a confirmed front runner, he adds a new wrinkle to an already compelling group. If he wins the Travers this weekend he tosses his name into this divisional race.

5. Gosger. Would be a dual Grade 1 winner if not for the heroics of Journalism. His last two starts, the Preakness and Haskell, have been solid runner-up finishes. Won the Lexington (G3) this season. Will run next in the Pennsylvania Derby.

Next 5: Goal Oriented, Sandman, Burnham Square, Chunk of Gold, Coal Battle.

Credit to Sovereignty for restoring some shine to the Kentucky Derby. Ten of the last sixteen Derby winners never won again, but he’s validated his victory and stamped himself the best Derby winner since American Pharoah.

Now he chases the Travers, aiming to be the first since Thunder Gulch in 1995 to sweep the Derby, Belmont and Travers. Of course, Thunder Gulch had to conquer the true test-of-the-champion Belmont at 12 furlongs, and Sovereignty’s Belmont came at the trimmed-down 10.

Recent Iowa Derby winner Magnitude is the wild card in this Travers. As the controlling speed, he’s far from hopeless. On paper, he’s about as fast ss Sovereignty.

In mid-February, Magnitude blew the doors off the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, wiring the field by nearly 10 lengths with a 108 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form. An ankle chip sidelined him for the Triple Crown, but he returned in July in the Iowa Derby, again dictating the pace before powering clear for another high speed figure.

Magnitude figures to control the Travers in the early and middle stages, and he already has proven he can run fast enough to spar with Sovereignty. The 10 furlongs of the Travers are uncharted waters for Magnitude, but then again, that’s true for every 3-year-old who skipped the Derby.

There is no way to sugarcoat this. The Travers runs through Sovereignty. It’s his third straight start at his Saratoga home base, and it’s hard to picture him losing. Still, Magnitude brings a wrinkle. If he’s allowed to cruise on the lead, reeling him in may not be so simple.

Older dirt males

1. Mindframe. He kept his unbeaten 2025 campaign rolling with a popular win in the Stephen Foster (G1), planting his flag atop the older dirt male division for now. But he gives off strong Liam’s Map vibes, very good up to nine furlongs but unlikely to stretch his game to classic territory. Like Liam, don’t be surprised if his Breeders’ Cup road leads to the Dirt Mile, especially if he comes up short in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) this month. His connections whiffed on a prime chance to widen his divisional lead when he was scratched from the Whitney (G1), leaving the stage to stablemate Fierceness, who promptly finished off the board.

2. Sierra Leone. He fired yet another bullet in a major, this time in the Whitney at Saratoga, toppling a strong field and launching himself right back into the Eclipse and horse-of-the-year conversation. He is the only horse in training with a real shot at going back to back in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and yet somehow, the critics still chirp. Next stop, the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where a win over Mindframe would leave no doubt about who sits atop this division.

3. Raging Torrent. He’s 2-for-2 this year with a Dubai win in the Godolphin Mile (G2) and a Met Mile (G1) score where he knocked off the division’s previous top two. He's ranked third for now, but with his recent retirement he will drop. Stays here now because he is top three, and top three here go on my ballot.

4. Nysos. With two wins from three starts this year, Nysos reminded everyone why the Baffert camp has been so high on him, cruising home last out in the San Diego (G2) at Del Mar. Next up, the 10-furlong Pacific Classic and a test to see if his brilliance can stretch the extra distance. If he passes that, he could crash the Breeders’ Cup Classic party come November.

5. Fierceness. No real excuses for his off-the-board finish in the Whitney, and you have to wonder if he’s the same horse since his surgery last December. He’s targeting a September return, likely in either the Woodward (G2) at Aqueduct or the Lukas Classic (G2) at Churchill. With Fierceness, nothing would shock me. His calling card has been inconsistency, so don’t be surprised if he bounces back and wins next time out.

Next five: Highland Falls, White Abarrio, Locked, Hit Show, Most Wanted.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Rebounded from her off-the-board finish in the La Troienne (G1) to score a facile win in the Fleur de Lis (G2) at Churchill Downs. Although her numbers are historically slow for a top-ranked member of this division, she continues to be the clear leader, mostly because no one else has pieced together a résumé strong enough to challenge her. She will run in the Personal Ensign at S

Division rankings: Alabama may shake up fillies division

Wed, 13 Aug 2025 20:06:22 GMT

This week, we hit pause on the 3-year-old colts and older dirt males to spotlight the summer's marquee event for 3-year-old fillies, the Grade 1 Alabama.

The 3-year-old fillies have taken a backseat to the boys this year, but the Alabama gets a jolt of intrigue with Nitrogen, a turf standout, stepping onto the dirt and into the big leagues. With the division still up for grabs, her connections know a win here could launch her to the top and put the Breeders’ Cup Distaff firmly on the radar.

Click here for Saratoga entries and results.

Before diving into my thoughts on the Alabama and the current state of the division, here’s how I’ve got the 3-year-old fillies ranked heading into the weekend.

3-year-old fillies

1. Good Cheer. She doesn't lose her spot here after one loss, as she had built up a sizable lead. Like Raging Sea in the Phipps, her loss in the Acorn (G1) wasn't very surprising given her numbers in previous starts. Will try to right the ship in the Alabama this weekend.

2. La Cara. Dominant winner of the Acorn last time out, she has two Grade 1 wins on the season after previously scoring in the Ashland at Keeneland. Will ascend to the top with a win this weekend in the Alabama.

3. Scottish Lassie. Don't look now, but this gal is very close to the top now after a dominating score in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). Before that she was third in the Acorn. Should run next in the Cotillion (G1) in September.

4. Nitrogen. This turf standout finally tasted defeat in the Belmont Oaks, finishing a close second and ending her five-race win streak. Her connections are pivoting back to dirt for the Alabama this weekend, a surface she tried earlier this season, romping by 17 lengths in the slop against a field of two.

5. Quietside. Didn’t look like she cared for the slop in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), fading to sixth. Before that, she delivered a gutsy win in the Fantasy (G2), outdueling Simply Joking in a thrilling stretch battle. Will continue to drop if she doesn't run soon.

Next five: Tenma, Drexel Hill, Five G, Simply Joking, Muhimma.

Just over two months ago, Good Cheer sat undefeated in seven starts and firmly atop the 3-year-old filly division after her Kentucky Oaks triumph. But even then, it felt like this division was still wide open. Her résumé was spotless, but the speed figures were underwhelming, and the sense was that she was vulnerable. And much like last year with Thorpedo Anna, no rival had stepped up with a race strong enough to challenge her.

That changed in the Acorn.

On another sloppy track, conditions that suited her in the Oaks, Good Cheer was expected to shine again. Instead, she flopped to fifth, while La Cara, who finished 13 lengths behind her in the Oaks, flipped the script and took the win.

Now they meet again in the Alabama, but who comes out on top? Your guess is as good as mine.

One thing I do know is that if Good Cheer rebounds and scores here, a Kentucky Oaks/Alabama double would all but lock up the Eclipse. But if La Cara turns the tables again, she grabs the division lead with three Grade 1 wins, matching Thorpedo Anna’s tally at this point last year.

And then there’s the wild card, turf star Nitrogen, the X-factor that turns this Alabama into must-see race. Sure, Nitrogen technically has one dirt race under her belt, but it came over a sloppy track, which turf horses often handle well. A fast dirt surface is a whole different ballgame. Still, on paper, Nitrogen stacks up surprisingly well. Her speed figures are stronger than any of her Alabama rivals and let’s be honest, her competition hasn’t exactly set the track ablaze. A few in here have picked up wins, sure, but none with the kind of flash or speed that turns heads.

It’s a tall order for Nitrogen, but given the landscape, it’s not out of reach.

Older dirt males

1. Mindframe. He kept his unbeaten 2025 campaign rolling with a popular win in the Stephen Foster (G1), planting his flag atop the older dirt male division for now. But he gives off strong Liam’s Map vibes, very good up to nine furlongs but unlikely to stretch his game to classic territory. Like Liam, don’t be surprised if his Breeders’ Cup road leads to the Dirt Mile, especially if he comes up short in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) this month. His connections whiffed on a prime chance to widen his divisional lead when he was scratched from the Whitney, leaving the stage to stablemate Fierceness, who promptly finished off the board.

2. Sierra Leone. He fired yet another bullet in a major, this time in the Whitney at Saratoga, toppling a strong field and launching himself right back into the Eclipse and horse-of-the-year conversation. He is the only horse in training with a real shot at going back to back in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and yet somehow, the critics still chirp. Next stop, the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where a win over Mindframe would leave no doubt about who sits atop this division.

4. Nysos. With two wins from three starts this year, Nysos reminded everyone why the Baffert camp has been so high on him, cruising home last out in the San Diego (G2) at Del Mar. Next up, the 10-furlong Pacific Classic (G1) and a test to see if his brilliance can stretch the extra distance. If he passes that, he could crash the Breeders’ Cup Classic party come November.

Next five: Highland Falls, White Abarrio, Locked, Hit Show, Most Wanted.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Rebounded from her off-the-board finish in the La Troienne (G1) to score a facile win in the Fleur de Lis (G2) at Churchill Downs. Although her numbers are historically slow for a top-ranked member of this division, she continues to be the clear leader in the division, mostly because no one else has pieced together a résumé strong enough to challenge her. She is scheduled to run next in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga.

2. Seismic Beauty. Scored a nice win last out in the Clement Hirsch (G1) going wire-to-wire. Clearly the fastest horse in the division on paper in 2025, she will be a tough one to beat if she can stay healthy this fall.

3. Kopion. I thought she ran a sneaky-good race when closing from last to finish second behind Seismic Beauty in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1). The added distance didn't bother her, and there’s no reason to think she can’t handle the nine furlongs of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Her con

Division rankings: Sierra Leone wins, but critics remain

Wed, 06 Aug 2025 16:49:14 GMT

You’d think that after his Grade 1 Whitney win last weekend, the list of Sierra Leone doubters would be few and far between. But for whatever reason this horse still doesn’t get the respect he’s earned, and it’s been that way for over a year. Honestly, I don’t get it.

When I put these rankings together each week, I do my best to stay objective. Sure, I have personal favorites. We all do. But truthfully, Sierra Leone wasn’t one of mine. That is not until last summer, when his bandwagon emptied faster than the odds plummet after the CAWs sneak in their wagers post-break.

Flashback: Sierra Leone wins thrilling Whitney.

Memories fade fast in this game, but this week I’m stepping in to defend Sierra Leone. We’ll look at the much-maligned colt, what his Whitney win really means in the bigger picture, and finally an exclusive sit-down interview from the notoriously tight-lipped Sierra Leone himself.

But first, the updated older dirt male rankings, Sierra Leone makes his move up to No. 2.

Older dirt males

1. Mindframe. He kept his unbeaten 2025 campaign rolling with a popular win in the Stephen Foster (G1), planting his flag atop the older dirt male division for now. But he gives off strong Liam’s Map vibes, very good up to nine furlongs but unlikely to stretch his game to classic territory. Like Liam, don’t be surprised if his Breeders’ Cup road leads to the Dirt Mile, especially if he comes up short in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) this month. He also whiffed on a prime chance to widen his divisional lead when he scratched from the Whitney, leaving the stage to stablemate Fierceness, who promptly finished off the board.

2. Sierra Leone. He fired yet another bullet in a major, this time in the Whitney at Saratoga, toppling a strong field and launching himself right back into the Eclipse and horse-of-the-year conversation. He is the only horse in training with a real shot at going back to back in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and yet somehow, the critics still chirp. Next stop, the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where a win over Mindframe would leave no doubt about who sits atop this division.

3. Raging Torrent. He’s 2-for-2 this year with a Dubai win in the Godolphin Mile (G2) and a Met Mile (G1) score where he knocked off the division’s previous top two. He's ranked for now, but with his recent retirement he will drop. Stays here now because he is top three, and top three here go on my ballot.

4. Nysos. With two wins from three starts this year, Nysos reminded everyone why the Baffert camp has been so high on him, cruising home last out in the San Diego (G2) at Del Mar. Next up, the 10-furlong Pacific Classic (G1) and a test to see if his brilliance can stretch the extra distance. If he passes that, he could crash the Breeders’ Cup Classic party come November.

5. Fierceness. No real excuses for his off-the-board finish in the Whitney, and you have to wonder if he’s the same horse since his surgery last December. He’s targeting a September return, likely in either the Woodward (G2) at Aqueduct or the Lukas Classic 9g20 at Churchill. With Fierceness, nothing would shock me. His calling card has been inconsistency, so don’t be surprised if he bounces back and wins next time out.

Next five: Highland Falls, White Abarrio, Locked, Hit Show, Most Wanted.

Heading into last year’s Kentucky Derby, the Sierra Leone bandwagon was standing-room only. After winning his first two starts at age 3 in impressive fashion, he was made the second choice in the run for the roses, and he nearly delivered, coming up a nose short to Mystik Dan in one of the most thrilling and controversial Derby stretch drives in recent memory.

That runner-up effort only solidified his standing as the top 3-year-old male. But after a third-place finish as the favorite in the Belmont, followed by back-to-back defeats in the Jim Dandy (G2) and Travers (G1), both times again as the favorite, the support started to fade. His third-place Travers finish, behind Fierceness and the filly Thorpedo Anna, was the tipping point. The bandwagon emptied.

Then came the Breeders’ Cup Classic. And Sierra Leone, forgotten by many, came flying late to win it all. That performance, coupled with his full season résumé, was enough to earn him the Eclipse award as champion 3-year-old male. Still, it’s fair to wonder. Had he won the Derby by a nose instead of losing it, would we be talking about 2024 horse of the year?

His 2025 campaign started sluggishly with a third-place finish as the favorite in the New Orleans Classic (G2), but after a lengthy break he returned in the Stephen Foster with a sharp, runner-up finish behind Mindframe. Then came the Whitney and with it his first win of the season, a statement-making performance that reminded everyone he’s still very much a force in this division.

With 12 career starts and never a finish worse than third, Sierra Leone has quietly built a reputation as one of the most consistent performers in the game. And yet, despite his accomplishments, the naysayers remain.

This week, I decided to have a little fun with the division rankings, taking a lighthearted detour from the usual format.

What if Sierra Leone could talk? I figured, why not imagine what an interview with him might sound like. From the heartbreak of the Derby to last weekend’s Whitney win, and yes, even a glance ahead to the Breeders’ Cup in November. We let the big guy speak for himself. Humor, honesty and maybe a little attitude included. Here’s what an interview with racing’s most consistent closer might sound like.

Let’s get to what the fans really want to know, what really happened in that Kentucky Derby? You lost by a nose, sure, but you spent the entire stretch lugging in and bouncing off Forever Young like it was a game of bumper cars. What was going on there?

Look, I’ve watched the tape more times than I’d like to admit. What happened in the Derby? Let’s call it what it was. I ran like a talented horse with a strong closing kick and no steering wheel. I felt great turning for home, I was locked and loaded, but then the crowd, the noise, the madness at Churchill. It got to me a bit. I started leaning in, and Forever Young happened to be right there. I wasn’t trying to play bumper cars, but I got a little territorial about my lane. And yeah, I lost by a nose. Brutal. But I wasn’t tired, not even close. If that wire had been six inches farther, we’re not even having this conversation. Chalk it up to inexperience and a touch of immaturity. I’ve cleaned it up since.

OK, fair enough. What about last summer at Saratoga? The losses to Fierceness in the Jim Dandy and the Travers?

Ah yes, Saratoga last summer. The Jim Dandy and the Travers, two races I still think about when I walk by the paddock there. In the Jim Dandy, I did what I do best, made my run late. Fierceness got the jump on me, and I was flying late, but the wire came a touch too soon. A little farther and I’m on top. Again, story of my life back then.

The Travers? Yeah, I hear that one a lot. “Why didn’t you go by those two?” Trust me, I asked myself the same thing trotting back. I had every shot, clean trip, but that race was a litt

Division rankings: Whitney shifts spotlight to older males

Wed, 30 Jul 2025 17:12:57 GMT

This week’s column was a coin flip: Head west to Del Mar, where two of the leading ladies on the dirt clash in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch, or stay east and zero in on the Whitney (G1), where Fierceness, Sierra Leone and White Abarrio will try to right their respective ships.

The coin landed on Saratoga.

Mindframe, the division’s current no. 1 in my rankings, also is entered but is likely to bow out in favor of Fierceness, the stablemate his connections clearly hold in higher regard. More on that and the Whitney in a moment, but first, here’s how my rankings stack up heading into the weekend, with three of the top five set to run.

Older dirt males

1. Mindframe. He kept his unbeaten 2025 campaign rolling with a popular win in the Stephen Foster (G1), planting his flag atop the older dirt male division for now. But he gives off strong Liam’s Map vibes, very good up to nine furlongs but unlikely to stretch his game to classic territory. As with Liam, don’t be shocked if his Breeders’ Cup destination is the Dirt Mile as the barn’s main classic ammo, Fierceness, aims for the Classic. Likely to be scratched from the Whitney.

2. Raging Torrent. He’s 2-for-2 this year, with a Dubai win in the Godolphin Mile (G2) and a Met Mile (G1) score where he knocked off the division’s previous top two. He's ranked second for now, but with his recent retirement he will drop. Stays here now because he is top three and top three here go on my ballot.

3. Fierceness. No excuses when runner-up in the Met Mile. We are halfway through the season and this guy has just one Grade 2 win. He will run in the Whitney at Saratoga this weekend.

4. White Abarrio. He too had no excuses in the Met Mile, where he finished a distant fourth. He did win his previous two starts this season, a dominant Pegasus World Cup (G1) score and a confident win in the Ghostzapper (G3) at Gulfstream. Also will start next in the Whitney.

5. Sierra Leone. Showed up again with his run in a major race as he closed well to be runner-up to Mindframe in the Stephen Foster (G1). Will be very dangerous when he gets back to 10 furlongs and the Breeders' Cup Classic. The Whitney is next at Saratoga.

Next five: Nysos, Locked, Hit Show, Skippylongstocking, Most Wanted.

Who could have predicted that by August, last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Classic 1-2 finishers would have only four combined starts and a single Grade 2 win between them? Yet, despite the lack of top-level success, Fierceness and Sierra Leone remain firmly in the divisional picture, thanks to the recent retirement of Met Mile winner Raging Torrent and the apparent decision by the connections of current leader Mindframe to skip this crucial race and watch from the sidelines.

If Mindframe does indeed scratch, it’s a squandered opportunity. A third Grade 1 win this season against this field would have made him very difficult to catch in the Eclipse race.

Fierceness will try to accomplish something rare in today’s game, win a Grade 1 race in his third straight season. His last start came in the Met Mile, where he finished second as the favorite behind Raging Torrent over a sloppy track, the same type of surface that gave him trouble way back in his second career start when he finished off the board. Maybe, just maybe, he had an excuse.

He’ll face a familiar rival in Sierra Leone. The two split their four meetings last year, but this time Sierra Leone is in a must-win spot. Unlike last season, a Breeders’ Cup Classic victory probably won’t be enough to clinch an Eclipse for him without a win here. His 2024 campaign has been stop-and-start, with a dull third in his March debut at Fair Grounds, then a much-improved runner-up finish in the Stephen Foster last month, where he fell just a length short of Mindframe.

Adding intrigue, Sierra Leone’s connections have entered Contrary Thinking. It’s a throwback move by Chad Brown, deploying what’s commonly called a rabbit, a horse entered to guarantee an honest pace, often to aid a stablemate. Brown also believes Contrary Thinking can grab a share, but make no mistake, this helps Sierra Leone. I love the move. It reminds me of a time when deploying rabbits were standard tactics.

In case you’re new to the term, a rabbit is a horse entered primarily to force a strong early pace, softening up-front running rivals for the closer in the barn.

We’ve seen it before. In 2005, Fierceness’s trainer, Todd Pletcher, sent out Bishop Court Hill in the Travers (G1) to keep things honest for Flower Alley. A decade earlier, D. Wayne Lukas famously used Comanche Trail to try to unsuccessfully wear down Holy Bull in the 1994 Travers for Tabasco Cat. Go back further and the list of examples only grows.

And then there’s White Abarrio. He won this race two years ago before going on to capture the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and earlier this season he took the Pegasus World Cup (G1). His last outing in the Met Mile was a muddy mess, finishing fourth over that sloppy surface. If he shows up with his A game, he’ll likely end up in the winner’s circle.

As for the rest of the field? It would take all three headliners misfiring for any of the supporting cast to sniff the winner’s circle.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Rebounded from her off-the-board finish in the La Troienne (G1) to score a facile win in the Fleur de Lis (G2) at Churchill Downs. Although her numbers are historically slow for a top-ranked member of this division, she continues to be the clear leader in the division, mostly because no one else has pieced together a résumé strong enough to challenge her. She is scheduled to run next in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga.

2. Leslie's Rose. Scored her first graded-stakes win this season in the Shuvee (G2) at Saratoga. Was third earlier this season in the Vagrancy (G3).

3. Randomized. Ended a three-race losing streak with a nice win in the Molly Pitcher (G3) over a good field. Was third earlier this season in the La Troienne (G1).

4. Richi. She steamrolled the Santa Maria (G2) at Santa Anita, opening up by more than four lengths and giving a nice boost to Cavalieri, who beat her the race before. This Chile import has done nothing but impress since arriving stateside. She has five solid efforts since June, plus a Group 1 win at 10 furlongs back home. She’s got stamina, class and momentum. A serious player in this division who will run this weekend in the Clement Hirsch at Del Mar. An impressive win moves her closer to the top.

5. Cavalieri. Undefeated and getting better with each start, but she’s skipping major races. No Apple Blossom (G1), no La Troienne and no Santa Margarita (G2). Championships aren’t won in the barn. If she keeps ghosting big races, she will continues to drop in the rankings.

Next five: Dazzling Move, Dorth Vader, Raging Sea, Power Squeeze, Royal Spa.

3-year-old males

1. Sovereignty. Took care of business in the Jim Dandy (G2) and will now head to the Travers, where another meeting with Journalism and Baeza is possible. The Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner holds all the cards in the division right n

Division rankings: 4-year-old flies under championship radar

Wed, 23 Jul 2025 19:37:12 GMT

The 3-year-old males may grab most of the headlines this weekend with Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Sovereignty returning in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga, but my spotlight will be focused on the opposite coast, 3,000 miles away at Del Mar.

The anticipated return of highly regarded Nysos in the San Diego Handicap (G2) over 8 1/2 furlongs is a must-watch race for many reasons.

Del Mar: Early jockey rankings for summer meet.

Despite its Grade 2 status, the San Diego long has been a stage for star power. In recent years California Chrome, Arrogate and even Maximum Security all used the San Diego to prepare for late-summer and fall campaigns. A Del Mar staple for decades, the San Diego rarely disappoints, and this year is no different.

Conspicuous from his absence in my older dirt male rankings below is Nysos. He has raced twice this year, both in sprints, which explains his lack of a ranking. But this weekend marks a major step toward his year-end goal, the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

So, can Nysos crash the Eclipse party with a late-season surge? I will try and answer that below.

Older dirt males

1. Mindframe. He kept his unbeaten 2025 campaign rolling with a popular win in the Stephen Foster (G1), planting his flag atop the older dirt male division for now. But he gives off strong Liam’s Map vibes, very good up to nine furlongs but unlikely to stretch his game to classic territory. As with Liam, don’t be shocked if his Breeders’ Cup destination is the Dirt Mile as the barn’s main classic ammo, Fierceness, aims for the Classic. Could meet his stablemate in the Whitney (G1) at Saratoga next time out.

3. Fierceness. No excuses when runner-up in the Met Mile. We are halfway through the season and this guy has just one Grade 2 win. He likely will run next in the Whitney at Saratoga.

5. Sierra Leone. Showed up again with his run in a major race as he closed well to be runner-up to Mindframe in the Stephen Foster. Will be very dangerous when he gets back to 10 furlongs and the Breeders' Cup Classic. Will also run next in the Whitney at Saratoga.

Next five: Locked, Hit Show, First Mission, Most Wanted, Mystik Dan.

Nysos exploded onto the national stage 19 months ago as a 2-year-old with a blowout win in the Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar, leaving future Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold in his wake. The performance was so dominant it launched him straight into Kentucky Derby futures, right behind Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ Fierceness.

After a dominant and fast Lewis Stakes (G3) win to open his 3-year-old campaign, Nysos soared to Kentucky Derby favoritism, boasting three wins by a combined 26 ¾ lengths. Sadly, that Lewis win was the last we saw of Nysos in 2024. A string of physical setbacks sidelined the son of Nyquist, and many wondered if we’d ever see him on the track again.

When Nysos returned to the work tab last October, hope flickered. By February and March, steady drills had fans thinking of a comeback, but what version of Nysos would we see? Then came whispers of a return in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), a bold move. Ship cross-country for his first start in 15 months against a loaded field featuring Mindframe, Book’em Danno, and Mullikin. As if that wasn’t daunting enough, race day brought a sloppy track, uncharted territory for Nysos.

Count me among the skeptics. As they loaded into the gate, I braced for the worst. Nysos had every excuse to fold, but he didn’t. Instead, he dug in and delivered a remarkable performance given the circumstances, falling just a nose short to Mindframe.

In one losing effort, Nysos proved more than in all three of his prior wins combined. That performance has only aged better: Mindframe, who had the benefit of a prep before Churchill, returned to take the Stephen Foster (G1), while Book’em Danno has rattled off two wins since, vaulting to the top of the sprint division. And yes, Nysos has run once since, crushing the field in the Triple Bend (G3) at Santa Anita.

Now the page turns as Nysos stretches back out around two turns this weekend at Del Mar. Anything short of victory would be surprising, but the real question is how he wins, and how he handles the added ground. At 8.5 furlongs, this will be his longest race yet. If all goes to plan, the 10-furlong Pacific Classic looms in late August, and dare I say it, if Journalism shows up too, we could be staring at a fascinating showdown.

Good news for Nysos fans: it’s not too late for him to make an Eclipse run. Fierceness has just a Grade 2 win this year, Sierra Leone is still winless, and while Mindframe holds the edge with a perfect 3-for-3 record and two Grade 1s, Nysos still controls his own destiny. Win this weekend, then add the Pacific Classic, and he’ll head to the Breeders’ Cup Classic not just as a top contender for the race, but for the older dirt male title, and maybe even Horse of the Year.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Rebounded from her off-the-board finish in the La Troienne (G1) to score a facile win in the Fleur de Lis (G2) at Churchill Downs. Although her numbers are historically slow for a top-ranked member of this division, she continues to be the clear leader in the division, mostly because no one else has pieced together a résumé strong enough to challenge her. She is scheduled to run next in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga.

2. Leslie's Rose. Scored her first graded stakes win this season in the Shuvee (G2) at Saratoga. Was third earlier this season in the Vagrancy (G3).

3. Randomized. Ended a three race losing streak with a nice win in the Molly Pitcher (G3) over a good field. Was third earlier this season in the La Troienne (G1).

4. Cavalieri. Undefeated and getting better with each start, but she’s skipping major races. No Apple Blossom (G1), no La Troienne and no Santa Margarita (G2). Championships aren’t won in the barn. If she keeps ghosting big races, she will continues to drop in the rankings. She’s expected to return at Del Mar.

5. Richi. She steamrolled the Santa Maria (G2) at Santa Anita, opening up by more than four lengths and giving a nice boost to Cavalieri, who beat her the race before. This Chilean import has done nothing but impress since arriving stateside. She has five solid efforts since June, plus a Group 1 win at 10 furlongs back home. She’s got stamina, class and momentum. A serious player in this division.

Next five: Dazzling Move, Dorth Vader, Raging Sea, Power Squeeze, Royal Spa.

3-year-old males

1. Sovereignty. This guy showed up for the Bel

Division rankings: Journalism plots to overtake Sovereignty

Wed, 16 Jul 2025 14:19:21 GMT

The second half of the season technically began the day after the Belmont Stakes, but seasoned fans know that the real restart comes on Haskell weekend at Monmouth Park. The Grade 1 race is the unofficial opening bell for the second half of the Thoroughbred racing season and in this case, it's where the 3-year-old Eclipse race heats up and the road to the Breeders’ Cup Classic comes into more focus.

Since 1981, when it was still called the Monmouth Invitational Handicap, the Haskell has been a magnet for the division’s heavyweights, male and female alike, turning the Monmouth oval in New Jersey into major stop for the sophomores.

A familiar and battle-tested name returns to the spotlight this weekend, Preakness winner Journalism. The only horse to compete in all three Triple Crown races, he enters the Haskell as the favorite after a six-week freshening. But this assignment is no layup, with Burnham Square, Preakness runner-up Gosger and the highly regarded Goal Oriented in the gate.

A victory here wouldn’t just pad Journalism’s résumé, it would set the stage for something the sport hasn’t seen in a very long time. But before we get to that, here’s how the 3-year-old male rankings shape up heading into Haskell weekend.

3-year-old males

1. Sovereignty. This guy showed up for the Belmont Stakes and left no doubt who was best, handling yet another off track. The track condition for the Belmont was changed to good after the race, but to many observers it was still muddy. He holds the edge over Journalism at the season’s halfway mark, and these two clearly have separated themselves from the pack in this division. Here’s hoping we get the rematch everyone wants in the Travers (G1) or Breeders’ Cup Classic. Could run next week in the Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga.

2. Journalism. No real excuses in the Belmont. He ran well but was simply second best on the day. Back in action this weekend in the Haskell, where a win would setup another showdown with his rival Sovereignty.

3. Baeza. Again was third best in a Triple Crown race, this time in the Belmont. He also headed back to California to regroup. Still in search of his first stakes win and will get his chance in the Jim Dandy (G2) next weekend at Saratoga.

4. Burnham Square. Ran a solid race in the Matt Winn (G3), just missing by a half-length to East Avenue at 8 1/2 furlongs. Of course, he already got the better of that rival going nine furlongs in the Blue Grass (G1). Next up is the Haskell, where the distance might tilt things back in his favor.

5. Magnitude. I’m bumping this guy all the way into the top five, even if his Iowa Derby comeback was basically a glorified allowance win. Before that, he romped in the Risen Star (G2) over a sloppy Fair Grounds track with an eye-popping figure. If you trust the numbers, he’s right there with the division’s top two. And as a confirmed front runner, he adds a new wrinkle to an already compelling group.

Next 5: Sandman, East Avenue, Tappan Street, Gosger, Coal Battle.

When it comes to 3-year-old rivalries that stretch beyond the Triple Crown and carry into the second half of the season, the gold standard this century is probably still Curlin vs. Street Sense in 2007. Even then, the supporting cast, Hard Spun and the filly Rags to Riches, who famously denied Curlin in the Belmont, added plenty of intrigue. But by the time the Breeders’ Cup rolled around, it was a two-horse race for divisional supremacy. Curlin won that final showdown, and with it, Horse of the Year honors.

To find a rivalry that comes close to what we might be witnessing now with Journalism and Sovereignty, you have to go back to 1989 and the unforgettable duels between Sunday Silence and Easy Goer. Sunday Silence captured the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before finishing second to his rival Easy Goer in the Belmont, a reversal of roles after Easy Goer had been runner-up to Sunday Silence in the first two legs. They stood head and shoulders above the rest of their division and after the Belmont, they went their separate ways until a final collision in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, won by Sunday Silence.

That’s the kind of drama we could be getting again. Through the first half of the season, Journalism and Sovereignty have emerged as the clear standouts in what has been, by modern standards, an unusually strong 3-year-old male division. The Triple Crown series was among the most compelling in recent years, and Journalism hasn’t missed a beat, competing in all three legs after opening his season with two wins in California. The problem is he has yet to defeat Sovereignty.

Journalism's Preakness triumph was unforgettable, but those runner-up finishes to Sovereignty in both the Derby and Belmont were gut punches for his backers. Still, this rivalry feels far from over. Sovereignty has had the upper hand so far, but as the second half unfolds, there’s a sense that Journalism isn’t done here. He might have the final word in the race for divisional supremacy.

Next up for Journalism is the Haskell this weekend, and if all goes according to script, we could be headed for round three with Sovereignty in the Travers (G1). The last time the two winners of all three Triple Crown races squared off in the Travers? You have to go back to 1991, when Hansel and Strike the Gold both showed up only to be upstaged by Corporate Report in a Travers shocker.

Older dirt males

1. Mindframe. He kept his unbeaten 2025 campaign rolling with a popular win in the Stephen Foster (G1), planting his flag atop the older dirt male division for now. But he gives off strong Liam’s Map vibes, very good up to nine furlongs but unlikely to stretch his game to classic territory. Like Liam, don’t be shocked if his Breeders’ Cup destination is the Dirt Mile as the barn’s main classic ammo, Fierceness, aims for the Classic. Could meet his stablemate in the Whitney (G1) at Saratoga next time out.

2. Raging Torrent. He’s 2-for-2 this year, with a Dubai win in the Godolphin Mile (G2) and a Met Mile (G1) score where he knocked off the division’s previous top two. He's ranked second for now, but a Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile clash with Mindframe is looming.

3. Fierceness. No excuses when runner-up in the Met Mile. We are halfway through the season and this guy has just one Grade 2 win. He likely will run next in the Whitney at Saratoga.

Next five: Locked, Hit Show, First Mission, Most Wanted, Mystik Dan.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Rebounded from her off-the-board finish in the La Troienne (G1) to score a facile win in the&nbs