This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman jump right into the July 4 festival at venerable Saratoga. The Spa will feature 10 stakes races over three days, and your hosts will focus on the Friday holiday card, which is led by the Grade 1, $750,000 Belmont Derby Invitational for sophomore turf specialists and the historic Suburban Stakes (G2) for older males running the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles on the main track.
In the nine-furlong Belmont Derby, it’s a wide-open field of eight. Test Score could be a tepid choice in this one coming off a pair of strong efforts in graded stakes in Kentucky, but look for Kentucky Derby fourth-place finisher Final Gambit and the English-bred Grade 1 winner New Century to be among those who garner plenty of support. In the Suburban, Locked looks to rebound from an uncharacteristic fourth in the Alysheba (G2). An impressive winner of the Cigar Mile (G2) and Santa Anita Handicap (G1) in his last four starts, he should be a big favorite on Friday.
Matt and Brian also pay their respects after the sad news of the death of legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas. An icon of the sport, Lukas passed away Saturday at the age of 89.
Brian: The news of the passing of D. Wayne Lukas was not a surprise after he returned home under hospice care recently, but nonetheless it was a blow. My personal memories of the training career of the legend span 45 years, and my feelings toward him came full circle and then some.
The first time I really knew of the Wisconsin native was as a young fan in 1980. Lukas brought the talented and improving Codex to the 1980 Preakness and defeated the wonderful Kentucky Derby-winning filly Genuine Risk. The ride by Angel Cordero on Codex did the filly dirty, and the trainer seemed a bit brash for my taste. He soon would dominate the sport and my respect grew, but I often rooted against the nation’s top trainer.
Matt: D. Wayne Lukas changed Thoroughbred racing more than any other individual in the history of the sport, and that cannot be denied. Lukas came along as racing was moving out of its golden era of Triple Crown winners Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed and exceptional horses such as Spectacular Bid. He was the first of the super trainers with large numbers of horses in his care who were stabled at several tracks across the country. He turned the sales auctions into happenings as he went there to buy expensive yearlings whom he knew would be fast and would win as precocious 2-year-olds. Then the Breeders’ Cup came along and Lukas made it his playground by winning 20 times. He also focused his stable on winning Triple Crown races, and he made those races even more important in the public eye than they had been.
Brian: Although I wasn’t afraid to look to beat Lukas in the nation’s biggest races as a bettor, I also became a big fan of many of his horses over the years. The great Lady’s Secret was an all-time favorite of mine. Along the way, I appreciated her trainer more and more as I learned of his work ethic and saw more of him aside from being the trainer of so many outstanding horses.
As the years went by, I became a true fan as Lukas aged. I also got to know him personally a bit in the last few decades of his life. A man’s man, he also had a warm and generous side. He was an excellent ambassador and an even better example for anyone involved in the sport of horse racing. Not seeing him on horseback in the mornings and at the track in the afternoons will leave a large void. Rest in peace, D. Wayne.
Matt: No doubt that Lukas changed as he aged. As he got older, he mellowed and embraced the role of racing’s elder statesman and did it better than anybody ever had. All of us can only hope that we will be able to have full and active lives up to the very end at a ripe old age. The thought of him on his pony every day in the wee hours of the morning will be the image of him that stays with me, warms my heart, makes me smile and inspires me.
Brian: The Suburban discussion clearly starts with Locked. Two races back he was a dominant winner going the 10-furlong distance in the prestigious Big 'Cap. Shortened up last time, he was no match for his champion stablemate Fierceness in the 8 1/2-furlong Alysheba. There is not a great deal of speed in here to set the table for his rally but probably just enough for him to be in position as they turn for home. The Todd Pletcher runner is the one to beat on Friday.
Matt: According to the conditions of the race, the Suburban serves as a prep race for the Aug. 31 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), and both are run at 1 1/4 miles. Locked is one of the horses who will benefit from the opportunity to run 10 furlongs again. Honor Marie looked great last year on the Kentucky Derby trail but then fizzled in the Belmont Stakes and the Travers (G1). His most recent start was a victory in a 1 1/2-mile stakes at Churchill, so maybe in the Suburban he will be full of run when others are not handling the distance.
Brian: The top two horses coming out of the Pimlico Special (G3) both are in with a shot here. As mentioned, there isn’t much speed, and both Awesome Aaron and Phileas Fogg have the ability to control the race from the break. Both are experienced runners in the best form of their careers. Speed is always dangerous even at this distance, and if the two are allowed to relax early in first and second, they each become dangerous. Can either go all the way? Probably only if Locked does not come with his best.
Matt: The pace projector agrees with you, Brian, that Phileas Fogg, breaking from the rail, and Awesome Marie from post position 8 are likely to go to the lead. Awesome Marie earned two big speed figures in his most recent starts and is a definite contender. Phileas Fogg on the other hand faces a significant class challenge.
Brian: I believe Locked’s stablemate Antiquarian is the wild card of the race. He was a nice 3-year-old, winning the Peter Pan (G3) in his fourth career start, but a cut below the best when he ran at Saratoga in the Belmont Stakes. On the shelf after that, he returned with two sharp efforts. That second-place finish in the Blame Stakes (G3), splitting Mystik Dan and Post Time, was excellent considering he bore out on the turn. If he can get the distance on Friday, he is a major threat. His last workout was excellent.
Matt: The distance looks like a really big question for Antiquarian. Bendoog is a consistent type with 16 top-three finishes from 20 starts, including a second in the Suburban last year after having the lead in the stretch. From the barn of Bill Mott, he could be a long shot to use underneath.
Brian: The Belmont Derby is truly an interesting betting affair. A viable case could be made for every horse in the race. The two horses coming out of the American Turf (G1), Test Score and New Century, seem like a logical place to start. They both sport solid career records and are proven in Grade 1 company. They both ran well last time out against a deep and talented field at Churchill Downs, rallying for second and third behind the classy Zulu Kingdom. Either winning would come as no surprise.
Matt: Test Score comes from the barn of Graham Motion, and New Century recently joined the U.S. barn of Brian Walsh. Test Score ran the best races of his career in his most recent starts. New Century won the Summer (G1) at Woodbine last year, which sent him to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, where he finished fourth against a stacked field of 12.
Brian: All of the other four are dangerous here. If Luther can run back to his strong performance in the French 2000 Guineas (G1) behind Henri Matisse two starts back, he will have a big chance here. Tank is very sharp right now and should be the controlling speed from the rail. World Beater is getting better with each start and comes in off two nice wins at Churchill Downs. Last but not least, Early Adopter had in a dull effort last out, but before that his races are good enough to believe he could contend here. This is a deep field of young turf horses.
I am a bit hesitant to take Locked in the Suburban as the heavy favorite coming off a mediocre performance, but I think the 1 1/4-mile trip will only serve to point out his superior class. The race setup of the Alysheba clearly did not suit him, and he will face an easier field Friday. His performance in the Big 'Cap points out his fondness for the distance, and he has run well at Saratoga before. Antiquarian, Awesome Aaron and Phileas Fogg all have good form and are graded-stakes types, but I expect the favorite to be too much down the Saratoga lane. Locked is my top pick.
Matt: Locked moves back to the 10-furlong distance where he won the Santa Anita Handicap by more than eight lengths. Add to that his second in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) on White Abarrio’s favorite track and the victory in the Cigar Mile (G2), and you have what looks like a winning resume. Locked is also my top pick.
Brian: In a wide-open affair, I am going to look for some value in the Belmont Derby. I don't see much speed in the race other than Tank. I like the rail draw, and I like Luis Saez in the saddle to give him a strong ride on the front. It is a fair question to wonder what he has been beating down at Gulfstream Park. With attractive morning line odds and the ability to control the race early against a field of horses who all prefer to come from off the pace, however, I am willing to give him a shot. Tank is my top pick to pull off an upset.
Matt: Brian, our race of the week top picks were quite good in the last few weeks. In the Belmont Derby I am not over-impressed with the European-bred horses. Thus, I am going to lean toward the Graham Motion runner. Motion has been spot-on recently while picking out races for his turf horses. I believe that he is looking for a Grade 1 victory on Friday at Saratoga. Test Score is my top pick.
