Head to Head: 2-year-old fillies make stakes debut in Debutante

Head to Head: 2-year-old fillies make stakes debut in Debutante
Photo: Charles Toler / Eclipse Sportswire

Sunday’s $200,000 listed Debutante Stakes on closing day at Churchill Downs offers 2-year-old fillies a chance to earn black-type status early in their careers.

The six-furlong event attracted nine 2-year-old fillies. Four are by first- or second-crop stallions hoping to add to their sire’s status.

Two of the last three winners of the Debutante, Brightwork in 2023 and Wonder Wheel in 2022, evolved into Grade 1 stakes winners. Wonder Wheel earned championship honors after capturing the Alcibiades and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Last year’s heroine, Vodka With a Twist, and Restless Rider in 2018, were second in the Breeders’ Cup.

The Debutante is billed as race seven of 11 with a 3:51 p.m. EDT post time.

We sort through past performances, race replays, statistics, pedigrees and more to find the winner.

Laurie

Ashley

1. Essential Coffee (3-1)

Essential Coffee was an impressive 8 1/2-length winner in her debut. Until she wasn’t. Around the first turn, Essential Coffee came over on Sapphire Beach, the horse to her inside, causing that one to steady hard. Sapphire Beach recovered and finished a distant second, but Essential Coffee was disqualified to second place. The Steve Asmussen trainee completed five furlongs in 58.53 seconds with a sharp 11.80 final furlong while not being pressured. She received an 83 Brisnet Speed Rating with an 87 late-pace figure. Nyquist’s daughter is half to Grade 3 winner Skinner, who was third in the 2022 Del Mar Futurity (G1) and is multiple graded-placed up to 1 1/8 miles. They are out of Winding Way, a Grade 3-winning sprinter. Essential Coffee posted a pair of moderate four-furlong breezes for the Debutante. Contender.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Essential Coffee crossed the wire 8 1/2 lengths clear of runner-up Sapphire Beach but was disqualified to second because of interference in the stretch. In watching the replay, I’ve seen much worse than what I saw here that went unpunished. Sapphire Beach was never going to win that race, so to me, this was a huge disservice to Essential Coffee. Two fillies from that race have made subsequent starts, with neither hitting the board. Flavien Prat takes over from Keith Asmussen. Contender.

2. Vajra (15-1)

Vajra was cross-entered, but raced in a maiden special weight Friday instead. 

3. Light Won Up (5-1)

Light Won Up did just that in her debut. She quarter-horsed out of the gate and dueled the entire way. She came in on her rival in the stretch, but once straightened out, pulled away by 1 1/4 lengths. The Doug O’Neill trainee completed 4 1/2 furlongs in 51.90, with a final half-furlong in 6.26. She earned a field-best 87 speed rating with an 86 late-pace figure. Light Won Up was flattered when runner-up La Ville Lumiere also a daughter of City of Light, returned to win and the third-place finisher returned to place second against La Ville Lumiere. City of Light’s daughter is out of the stakes-winning sprinter Factorofwon. The second generation includes the precocious Wildatlanticstorm, who won or placed in three stakes at 2, including the Springboard Mile. Light Won Up posted three quick post-race moves, including a second-to-last five furlongs in 1:00 in company with Cardinal Spirit, an older claiming-class gelding who was used as a rabbit. Light Won Up targeted her mate, and the pair galloped to the wire together as neither were asked to run. Light Won Up had a four-furlong solo gate work in 47.80 as a maintenance breeze. Although she’s shipping and taking on winners for the first time, Light Won Up’s professionalism and quick morning works make her a contender.

Trained by Doug O’Neill, Light Won Up ships in off a debut victory at Santa Anita on May 16. Runner-up La Ville Lumiere flattered her win by scoring next out herself, albeit on turf. Third-place finisher Velvet Dream also switched to turf and ran second to La Ville Lumiere in that same event. O’Neill is just 9% wins with a 27% in-the-money rate in Kentucky in the last five years. Antonio Fresu has the return call. Contender.

4. Americathegreat (7-2)

In her debut, Americathegreat broke a little slowly and was squeezed back to last. She was green and had to steady down the backstretch, leaving her 15 lengths behind the leaders. Americathegreat looked like an also-ran in the stretch, yet  she mowed them down and gained with every stride on Color Comin’ In. Although she ran out of real estate, Americathegreat galloped far in front and completed her final furlong in 11.56. Conditioned by Mark Casse, Americathegreat earned a 75 speed rating and a 92 late-pace figure. Curlin’s daughter is a full sister to multiple Grade 3-winning router First Captain, who was a nose short in the Suburban (G2). Their Grade 3-winning dam America placed in the Mother Goose and Delaware Handicap, both Grade 1 events. America’s 3/4 sister bore CCA Oaks (G1) heroine Paris Lights, also by Curlin. Americathegreat posted a trio of works that were quicker than her pre-race moves. Her first breeze back was four furlongs in 47.20, fifth-best of 34 for the day. Contender.

 

Trained by Mark Casse, Americathegreat is a maiden after running second to Color Comin’ In in her debut. She was off slowly and trailed the field, spotting the pacesetters about 10 lengths. But she really kicked it into gear in the stretch, gaining ground to narrow Color Comin’ In’s clear advantage inside the final sixteenth. If she gets a clean break and a more forwardly placed running position, she could do some damage here. On the negative side of things, four fillies from this field have raced again, with just one hitting the board, at Presque Isle Downs no less. Jose Ortiz gets the return call. Contender.

5. Jaboss (20-1)

In her debut in a maiden claiming event, Jaboss broke slowly from post 1, which was a good thing, because she immediately ducked two paths to the right, imitating her sire’s style. She made a sustained rally and zipped around the corner into contention. Jaboss moved around the tiring pacesetter and was uneven, wavering between horses before sorting things out physically and mentally. She shook clear to win by 3 1/4 lengths and completed five furlongs in 58.59 with a 12.56 final furlong. The Chris Davis trainee earned a 78 speed rating with an 84 late-pace figure. By 2016 2-year-old champ and Bashford Manor hero Classic Empire, Jaboss is out of the winning Take Charge Indy mare, Indy Takes Charge, who is half to a stakes-winning sprinter. Jaboss paddles with her right fore. She posted a quick four-furlong gate work in 47.60, second best of 20. She’s turning around in just 11 days. Pass.

 

Trained by Christopher Davis, Jaboss debuted a winner in a five-furlong maiden claiming event over the Churchill Downs track. Equibase gave the filly a 69 and Brisnet assigned her a 78. That race was on June 18, meaning no one has made a start since then. But four of Jaboss’s five rivals had prior starts. Davis is 14% wins with a 36% in-the-money rate in non-graded stakes over the last five years. Sophie Doyle takes over from Jose Ortiz. Pass.

6. Mine Strike (15-1)

Making up six lengths in the stretch in her Gulfstream Park debut, Mine Strike made a last-to-first blitz in a five-horse blanket finish, surprising everyone at the last second. She won the 4 1/2-furlong race by a neck in 54.62, with a 6.90 final half-furlong. The Carlos David trainee recorded a 76 speed rating and a 92 late-pace figure. By Second Crop sire Tom’s d’Etat, Mine Strike is out of the stakes-placed sprinter, Danyelli, by Mineshaft. Third dam The Administrator is a stakes winning sprinter who bore 2011 Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro, also by Mineshaft. Mine Strike breezed twice for the Debutante, including a bullet four-furlong gate breeze in 48.45. Pass.

Trained by Carlos David, Mine Strike came from out of the clouds to get up just in time in a blanket finish at Gulfstream Park. At the break, Mine Strike quickly dropped off the viewing screen, initially appearing to go backward. She came with a late rush in deep stretch, popping up out of thin air just in time. Two fillies from that race were next-out winners, with a third filly finishing second in her next start. She received a 76 from both Brisnet and Equibase. David is 16% wins with a 40% in-the-money clip in non-graded stakes in the past five years but is just 4% wins with a 39% in-the-money rate in Kentucky during that same time. Junior Alvarado replaces Emisael Jaramillo. Long-shot play.

7. Percy’s Bar (9-2)

In her Keeneland debut, Percy’s Bar steadied not long after the break, dropping to the back of the pack. She flew by rivals up the rail to win the 4 1/2-furlong race by four lengths. The Ben Colebrook trainee was timed in 52.54, with a strong 6.11 final half-furlong. She has an 80 speed rating, and her 96 late-pace figure is the field’s highest. By Upstart, Percy’s Bar is out of the unraced Super Saver mare Honestly Deb. The second dam, Debs Charm, was third in the Alcibiades (G2) and bore stakes-winning sprinters Praetereo and Simply Spiteful, as well as a pair of graded-placed runners, Defense Wins and Dawn’s Charm. Colebrook gave Percy’s Bar a recent trio of four=furlong works at Keeneland, including a pre-race 47.00 move, second best of 47. Exotics.

Trained by Ben Colebrook, Percy’s Bar debuted a winner at Keeneland, rallying and eventually drawing off to win the 4 1/2-furlong race by four lengths. She received a field-best 88 Equibase speed figure and an 80 Brisnet Speed Rating. Two fillies were next-out winners with a drop in class, with two more hitting the board in their next start, one at Saratoga against the boys and the other at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Colebrook is 0% wins with a 25% in-the-money clip in non-graded stakes over the past year and 11% wins with a 44% in-the-money clip with that same angle over five years. Luan Machado gets the return call. Exotics.

8. Color Comin’ In (4-1)

In her May 15 debut at Churchill, Color Comin’ In briefly tailgated the two pacesetters and bravely cut the corner turning for home. She opened up under an aggressive hand ride, besting a fast-closing Americathegreat. The Norm Casse trainee completed five furlongs in a sharp 58.14 with a 12.75 final furlong, earning her an 80 speed rating and 78 late-pace figure. Color Comin’ In was the first winner for first-crop sire Rock Your World, who is second in the sire standings. Color Comin’ In’s dam, Sleepless Dixie, was third in a pair of juvenile stakes. The second generation includes the second dam, Dream About, a Grade 2-winning juvenile, and her offspring, Grade 2-winning turf horse Deeply Undervalued, and Sleepless Knight, a veteran stakes winner who made 40 starts. Color Comin’ In posted a trio of works that were quicker than her pre-race moves. Her first breeze back was four furlongs in 48.00, over a second faster than her previous time. Two of Mine Strike’s rivals won their next start, and a third placed second. Percy’s Bar beat a decent field. Two rivals won their next start, and a third was second in a start at Saratoga despite stumbling at the start. Exotics.

Trained by Norm Casse, Color Comin’ In debuted a winner over the Churchill track last month, beating runner-up Americathegreat by three lengths. So far, that field hasn’t proven talented. Color Comin’ In earned an 80 Brisnet Speed Rating and an 83 Equibase speed figure. Casse is 0% wins with a 50% in-the-money rate in non-graded stakes over the last year. Luis Saez has the return call. Exotics.

9. Lilies N Paradise (10-1)

After tracking the pace in her debut, Lilies N Paradise wasn’t sure about passing the pacesetter in the stretch, but once she got closer, Lilies N Paradise figured it out and surged late to win by a head. Conditioned by Mike Maker, Lilies N Paradise completed 4 1/2 furlongs in 52.09 with a 6.57 final half-furlong. She earned a 79 speed rating and 76 late-pace figure. By fourth-ranked First Crop sire, Maxfield, Lilies N Paradise is half to Grade 2-placed juvenile Electric Ride. Otherwise, there is little black type in this distaff line. Lilies N Paradise returned to the work tab with a four-furlong move in 49.80, slower than previous works. Pass.

Trained by Mike Maker, Lilies N Paradise debuted a winner going 4 1/2 furlongs over the Churchill course on June 6. She initially pressed the pace and eventually inched past a tiring Pulstar to get the win by a head. Two fillies from this field have made subsequent starts, and neither hit the board. She received a 79 Brisnet Speed Rating and an 81 Equibase speed figure. Edgar Morales gets the return call. Exotics.

Final thoughts

Laurie: In terms of previous starts, we’re looking for a filly who gained ground in her last start and won, although one winner was second in her debut in 2015. Four debuted in 4 1/2-furlong races, the rest at five or 5 1/2 furlongs.
Pacesetters and pressers rule, and five favorites won, the last in 2019. Only one placed worse than fourth.

Posts 2 through 6 are the place to be. Post 1 saw one winner and four were second or third, including three in the last four years.

This is a well-matched field, and many of these youngsters were off to a slow start or had a troubled debut. I expect most will rebound.

Like many of Curlin’s daughters, Americathegreat is a big, rangy filly who is bred to run all day. Her final furlong was the fastest in the Debutante, and she’ll only get better with time and distance. She’s also one of the most well-bred fillies in the field.

Essential Coffee is also well bred and had the most impressive debut.

Percy’s Bar impressed me with her slow start yet winning at 4 1/2 furlongs by four lengths.

I’m normally not a fan of 2-year-olds shipping across country for races so early in the season. But Light Won Up was impressive in her debut and working with an older horse.


Ashley: 
I’m going to start out by getting back on my soap box about Essential Coffee. The final margin of victory over the runner-up was 8 1/2 lengths. If we were talking noses apart or even about a length or two difference, then OK. But Sapphire Beach was never going to win that race. She had ample time to recover and did so, getting back up to near even terms with Essential Coffee. But Essential Coffee loved the slop. I don’t think a disqualification was warranted here.

Now let’s talk about Americathegreat and Color Comin’ In. I hold nothing against Norm Casse’s filly, and in fact, I commend him for beating his dad. But I believe Mark Casse had the better filly in Americathegreat. Color Comin’ In had every tactical advantage and finished very strong. But Americathegreat gained a ton of ground after dropping so far back early on and should improve with a better break.

Mine Strike also came out of the clouds in her debut, but what was impressive about her performance was that it occurred at Gulfstream Park. You don’t often see horses successfully make the type of move we saw from her in Florida. Plus she was flattered by that race already producing two next-out winners.

The California filly Light Won Up cannot be ignored. O’Neill doesn’t have a great winning record in Kentucky, but his filly fits by the numbers. Cases for Percy’s Bar and Lilies N Paradise can also be made. It’s a tough field with few wrong answers.

Selections

           Laurie

           Ashley

4. Americathegreat (7-2)

1. Essential Coffee (3-1)

1. Essential Coffee (3-1)

4. Americathegreat (7-2)

7. Percy’s Bar (9-2)

3. Light Won Up (5-1)

3. Light Won Up (5-1)

6. Mine Strike (15-1)



Meet Laurie Ross


 HRN Pedigree Analyst 

 Handicapper 

 Published Author

 Pedigree Research/Consultation/Sales 

 ThoroFan Board Member

 Member – NTWAB


Through hands-on work at barns, I learned valuable lessons about Thoroughbred conformation, gait, and temperament and later worked withThoroughbred rescue/re-train organizations. I have committed my passion for horses to the intensive study of pedigree and breeding theory for the last 20 years. 


I support clients with all aspects of pedigree/breeding analysis, research, sales, catalogue review, and recommendations on claims or private sales. Clients include national leading owners, racing/breeding syndicates, the little guy with one mare, and everyone in between. 10-20% of all proceeds are donated to Thoroughbred rescue & retraining groups. Check out my website, Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds, and the IMTBreds blog.

I welcome your questions regarding pedigree, handicapping, and breeding. If you would like me to cover a specific topic, please contact me. 

Twitter: @IMTBreds
Facebook: IMTBreds
LinkedIn: Laurie Ross

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