Head to Head: Getting a lock on Saratoga's Suburban Stakes

Laurie

Ashley

1. Phileas Fogg

Phileas Fogg has flourished since joining Gustavo Rodriguez’s barn last August. He reeled off four victories, was second by a neck, then outclassed rivals in the 1 1/4-mile Excelsior Stakes. Less than 80 days later in his first graded attempt, Phileas Fogg sailed through the stretch in the Pimlico Special (G3) but couldn’t shake Awesome Aaron, who inched clear by 3/4 length, both beating San Siro, who checked in a distant fourth. The Rodriguez trainee’s Brisnet Speed Satings have climbed to 104, and his late-pace figures are competitive. Phileas Fogg owns a pair of recent five-furlong bullets and appears ready for another step up in class. Exotics.

Trained by Gustavo Rodriguez, Phileas Fogg has finished in the exacta 12 times in 17 career starts. He has spent most of his career racing in the claiming and allowance ranks, with a stakes appearance here and there. He notched his second stakes victory this year when winning the 1 1/4-mile Excelsior Stakes by 5 1/4 lengths. He was most recently second by 3/4 length to Awesome Aaron in the Pimlico Special (G3). Phileas Fogg received back-to-back 104 Brisnet Speed Ratings for his Excelsior and Pimlico Special (G3) efforts. Rodriguez hasn’t had many graded-stakes starters, but he means business when he does send one out. Kendrick Carmouche has the mount. Exotics.

2. Disarm

No stranger to Saratoga, Disarm was a cut below the best in four graded attempts. The last time he won a graded race was in 2023. In his latest effort, the Steve Asmussen trainee closed for a distant fourth place in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). Pass.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Disarm was most recently seen finishing fourth in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). Oaklawn Handicap winner First Mission ran third in the Stephen Foster (G1) next out, runner-up Banishing was second in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) in his next start, and third-place finisher Skippylongstocking won the Hollywood Gold Cup (G2) next out. In his only other start this year, Disarm beat Bendoog by a neck in an optional claimer. Disarm has raced against the best runners these last few years but has only  the 2023 Matt Winn (G3) to his name, graded-stakes wise. Joel Rosario has the mount. Contender.

3. San Siro

Brendan Walsh brought San Siro along patiently through his conditions and was rewarded in April with a second-place finish in the Ben Ali (G3). But San Siro needed a last-minute shoe repair in the paddock before the Pimlico Special. He had a wide trip and gained a little ground to finish a distant fourth. The effort earned him a career-best 98 Brisnet rating, but this 4-year-old needs to improve further to be competitive. Pass.  

Trained by Brendan Walsh, San Siro enters off a fourth-place finish in the Pimlico Special after having a shoe repair in the paddock prior to the race. San Siro also ran fourth in the New Orleans Classic (G2) and second in the Ben Ali (G3) this year. This gelding has a prior win at the Suburban distance of 1 1/4 miles, but he’s light on class compared to some of the others in this field. Luis Saez has the mount. Pass.

4. Locked

Locked stands head and withers above the Suburban field as the only two-time Grade 1 hero in the field. Remarkably consistent, Locked’s fourth-place finish in the Alysheba (G2) on Kentucky Oaks day was his only off-the-board placing. He took the long way around, made a belated five-wide move and was left with too much to do. The Todd Pletcher trainee recorded four consecutive triple-digit late-pace figures and is the one to beat. Contender.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Locked enters off fourth place finish in the Alysheba (G2) despite dominating his foes in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) in his prior start. I’m willing to let Alysheba (G2) slide, as there wasn’t much pace for Locked to run at, and he was coming on late. Jose Ortiz will get the leg up. Contender.

5. Bendoog

The 6-year-old Bendoog may scratch from the Suburban, since he recorded a four-furlong breeze over Saratoga’s training track on Monday. If he does run, Bendoog returns for another shot at the Suburban after missing by a half-length last year. Since last October, the Bill Mott trainee had a frustrating run of losses by a nose or neck. He finally broke through in an optional-claimer event in May. Mott gave Bendoog a bullet four-furlong move on June 22. If he runs, use him in the exotics.

Trained by Bill Mott, Bendoog began his career in Dubai but was transferred overseas following a sixth-place finish in the 2023 Dubai World Cup (G1). Since his arrival, Bendoog has competed in only three stakes races, finishing second in last year’s edition of the Suburban (G2) and this year’s American Pharoah Overnight Stakes while running sixth of 10 in the 2024 Charles Town Classic (G2). Put a line through the Charles Town Classic, as not every horse takes to the West Virginia bullring. Bendoog also gets a pass for the American Pharoah Overnight. That stretch run was a bit of a mess with both Bishops Bay and Full Screen appearing to drift out before Bendoog dove for the rail in mid-stretch. It did end up being a productive race, however, with Bishops Bay, Liberal Arts and Honor Marie all winning stakes races next out. Bendoog himself came back to win an optional claimer in his next start. Jose Lezcano has the call. Exotics.

6. Honor Marie

Honor Marie is searching for his level. He showed promise closing for second place in last year’s Louisiana Derby (G2), but was utterly outclassed in the classics and the Travers Stakes (G1). Honor Marie couldn’t keep up in the restricted America Pharoah Stakes, his first start as a 4-year-old, but captured the 1 1/2-mile Isaac Murphy Marathon in his second start off the layoff. This one-paced sort can run all day and needs a fast pace to do his best. Pass.

Trained by Whit Beckman, Honor Marie enters off a head victory in the 1 1/2-mile Isaac Murphy Marathon Stakes. This colt gave me fits last year with his inconsistency, but that is to be expected from a closer. Unfortunately, that inconsistency has carried over to this year, with Honor Marie finishing seventh in the American Pharoah Overnight Stakes prior to his last-out victory. Fitness could have been key, however, as the American Pharoah was his first start off a seven-month layoff. Ben Curtis has the return call. I’ve been burnt by this colt several times, so if he beats me here, so be it. Pass.

7. Antiquarian

Antiquarian’s only off-the-board finishes were in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby and the 1 1/4-mile Belmont at Saratoga last year. He broke through the gate before the Louisiana Derby, so he had an excuse. In the Belmont Stakes, the Todd Pletcher trainee settled behind dueling pacesetters. He was bumped around in the stretch but was clearly going nowhere before then. Antiquarian tuned up with a pre-race four-furlong move in 47.82, second-best of 42 on Saratoga’s main track. Antiquarian does his best work as a pacesetter or presser. However, he needs to prove that he can win beyond 1 1/8 miles and at Saratoga. Exotics.

Also from the Todd Pletcher barn, Antiquarian was second to Mystik Dan in the Blame (G3) last out. Last year, Antiquarian proved unable to be competitive at the Grade 1 and 2 levels, but he did win the Peter Pan (G3). Blame (G3) winner Mystik Dan didn’t flatter his or Antiquarian’s form with a fourth-place finish in the Stephen Foster (G1) in his next outing. John Velazquez has the return call. Pass.

8. Awesome Aaron

After joining Norm Casse’s barn, Awesome Aaron’s speed ratings have improved in each start this year. He earned his first graded victory when he nipped Phileas Fogg on the wire in the Pimlico Special and earned a career-best 105 speed rating. Awesome Aaron has tactical speed but can generally be found setting or pressing the pace. Exotics.

Trained by Norm Mott, Awesome Aaron enters off a victory in the Pimlico Special. The 6-year-old gelding has been in career-best form in his last two starts, including receiving a 105 Brisnet Speed Rating for the Pimlico Special. I’m honestly not sure what to do with this guy. His recent form suggests he could win this, but his back class, or lack thereof, is questionable. Awesome Aaron will get the piloting services of Irad Ortiz Jr. This is another whom I will let beat me. Pass.