Featuring a rematch of Good Cheer and La Cara, the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga is one of the last major races of 2025 carded specifically for 3-year-old fillies.
Good Cheer and La Cara faced off in their last two races resulting in a split decision as they have traded good and bad days. Both fillies will be joined by a stablemate plus two outliers to compose a field of six. They will face the formidable distance of 1 1/4 miles as well as one another in their quest for the lion’s share of the $600,000 purse.
Click here for Saratoga entries and results.
Saratoga Springs, N.Y. is expecting excellent weather this weekend. The Alabama is the 10th of Saturday’s 12 races with a post time of 5:44 p.m. EDT.
We have examined the Alabama from every angle to determine whether Good Cheer retains her top position in the division or if La Cara is poised to make a late run at championship honors.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Margie’s Intention (8-1) | |
| Taken back to last, some 14 lengths behind Fondly in the early stages of the Delaware Oaks (G3), Margie’s Intention lost a lot of ground when she had to swing eight wide around the far turn. She gradually passed tired horses to gain second place, three lengths behind loose-on-the-lead Fondly. Usually, the Brad Cox trainee is a pace presser. She never has finished worse than fourth and has bested Kinzie Queen twice. Margie’s Intention has a middle-distance pedigree. She’s the only one of Honor A. P.’s offspring to win beyond 1 1/6 miles. Race Lens shows three of his progeny have raced at 1 1/4 miles on dirt, with one placing fourth. Out of the unraced Into Mischief mare Playful Dancer, the black type in the first three generations of Margie’s Intention’s distaff line hovers in the sprinter to middle-distance ranges. But she has made up ground in most of her races and might handle the extra distance. Exotics. | Now with Brad Cox, Margie’s Intention has elevated her game since switching barns. Under the tutelage of Brendan Walsh, this daughter of Honor A. P. was stakes-placed via a couple second place finishes in Louisiana-bred company. Since the switch she’s won the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) and was second in the Delaware Oaks (G3). Neither of those fields featured the best in the division, so Margie’s Intention faces a steep class check as well as the classic distance question. Her Equibase speed figures have topped out at a ho-hum 93, and she posted just an 81 last out in the Delaware Oaks (G3). Irad Ortiz Jr. has the mount. Exotics. |
| 2. Good Cheer (8-5) | |
| In a shocking edition of the Acorn Stakes, Good Cheer brushed the gate and never got out of first gear, finishing 9 1/4 lengths behind La Cara over a sloppy track. Medaglia d’Oro’s daughter is out of multiple Grade 1 heroine Wedding Toast. Good Cheer has a consistent pattern of four-furlong breezes at Saratoga. She has tactical speed and classic distance breeding and can return to her winning ways. Contender. | Also from the Cox barn, Good Cheer looks to return to winning form after a shocking defeat last out in the Acorn. Previously undefeated through seven starts, Good Cheer ended up finishing fifth of six. She has had two months off to rest and put that race behind her, but she’ll still need to bring her A-plus game as La Cara is lined up once again to pounce on any weakness the leading lady might show. Regular jockey Luis Saez has the call. Contender. |
| 3. Kinzie Queen (15-1) | |
| Kinzie Queen consistently picks up a check and checked in third twice in graded stakes. Her late-pace figures waver in the 80s and 90s, so she fits with this group speed-wise. But class-wise, she’s a cut below the best. By McKinzie, sire of dual Classic-placed Baeza and Scottish Lassie, runaway winner of the CCA Oaks, Kinzie Queen is the third black-type earner out of the stakes-winning sprinter A.P.’s Glory, and her pedigree suggests 1 1/8 miles is about her limit. The Greg Compton trainee trains at Delaware Park and recently had a one-mile stamina breeze in 1:43. Kinzie Queen will make a late run and could pick up a lower exotics check. | Trained by Greg Compton, Kinzie Queen finished third in her last two starts, the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) and Delaware Oaks (G3). She finished behind Margie’s Intention in both races. Again, neither of those fields came up tough, but she gets credit for hitting the board after finishing fifth in the Fantasy (G3), beaten by 12 3/4 lengths, in her only other graded stakes start. Compton is 0% wins with a 29% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years and is seeking his first graded victory in a career that dates back to 2006, according to Race Lens. Junior Alvarado, who was aboard for her last two races, has the return call. Pass. |
| 4. Nitrogen (9-5) | |
| Nitrogen makes her fast-dirt debut after a string of four straight victories on the lawn. She freaked on the sloppy main track in the washed out Wonder Again (G3), galloping home a 17-length winner over two rivals, never getting out of first gear in a paid workout. More recently, Nitrogen missed the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) victory by a heartbreaking nose to Fionn. Nitrogen has a dirt-oriented pedigree. Medaglia d’Oro’s daughter is out of Tiffany Case, a minor-stakes-placed sprinter by Uncle Mo. Nitrogen’s half-sister Love to Shop is a stakes winner on turf and stakes-placed over Woodbine’s Polytrack. Tiffany Case’s half-sister Talk Veuve to Me won the Indiana Oaks (G3) and is multiple graded-placed, including a runner-up finish behind Monomoy Girl in the 2018 Acorn (G1). The Mark Casse trainee posted two breezes on Saratoga’s dirt. Nitrogen has the pedigree to enjoy classic distances. She moves smoothly, displaying good leg extension without excess movement, which could transfer to dirt. The main drawback for turf horses switching to dirt is kickback. Nitrogen is a pace presser, so if Jose Ortiz can keep her in the clear without eating dirt, she could pull off the upset. Contender. | Trained by Mark Casse, turf star Nitrogen gets a shot at the big time after dominating the off-the-turf Wonder Again by 17 lengths. She did return to the turf for her most recent start, getting nailed at the wire to lose the Belmont Oaks Invitational by a mere nose. Since she only faced two rivals in the Wonder Again, I’m hesitant to get over excited about her chances here. But as Laurie pointed out, Nitrogen does have a dirt-oriented pedigree. With most of the money likely going to Good Cheer and La Cara, I’d be a fool to not take a shot with the D. J. Stable homebred. Regular jockey Jose Ortiz has the mount. Contender. |
| 5. Queen Azteca (12-1) | |
| Queen Azteca is the Alabama’s mystery horse. The U.A.E. Oaks (G3) heroine has one off-the-board finish this year, against colts in the U.A.E. Derby (G2) behind Admire Daytona. Conditioned by Niels Petersen, Queen Azteca placed second against the boys in Sweden’s most prestigious race, the 1 1/2 mile Jockeyklubben Svenskt Derby. Somehow, I hear Betty White’s “Golden Girls” accent when I read that. The Sweden Derby is contested over a left turn around sharp, bull-ring turns. Queen Azteca settled on the far outside about mid-pack and was about five wide the entire way. She gradually moved into contention the third time around the oval but was passed by the winner. Queen Azteca has no recorded works at Saratoga. Hårt pass. | Trained by Niels Petersen, Queen Azteca is Sweden’s darling, and I can honestly say this is the first time I have ever said that. Though she began her career in Scandinavia, she didn’t have her coming-out party until Petersen took her to Dubai. There she prevailed by 3/4 lengths in the U.A.E. Oaks. She then took a shot at the boys in the UAE Derby, where she was no factor. From there she easily won the 1 3/8-mile local prep for the Swedish Derby but fell 1 3/4 lengths shy in the 1 1/2-mile Swedish Derby itself. Queen Azteca picked up a career and field-best 119 Equibase speed figure for the 1 3/16-mile UAE Oaks. If this were a lesser race, I’d take a shot with this filly. But this is going to be a class test for her. Joel Rosario has the mount. Pass. |
| 6. La Cara (5-2) | |
| La Cara developed a win-lose cycle this year, and her Brisnet Speed Ratings reflect this. The free-running pacesetter wins only when she establishes a clear advantage in the stretch, as she did in this year’s Acorn, Ashland, and Suncoast Stakes. By Street Sense out of a full sister to Grade 1 winners To Honor and Serve and Angela Renee, La Cara should handle 1 1/4 miles. Mark Casse gave her a pair of bullet five-furlong solo breezes at Saratoga. The question is whether La Cara can carry her speed unopposed to the wire or continue her win-lose pattern. Exotics. | Also from the Mark Casse barn, La Cara took advantage of Good Cheer’s bad day to take the Acorn gate to wire, winning by three lengths. She also notched victories in the Ashland and Suncoast Stakes. She’s a talented filly in her own right, but she typically can’t string together two wins in a row. She does, however, have two wins over the Saratoga course. Regular rider Dylan Davis has the call. Contender. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: The Alabama heroine typically wins or places in the CCA Oaks or wins the Delaware Oaks.
Pressers and closers are most successful, although four pacesetters won in the last 15 years.
Bet the favorite. They win 46% of the time, and only one has finished worse than fourth in 15 years.
No post position is favored. The rail position yielded three winners, and overall, seven have placed in the top four. The last winner was Dunbar Road in 2019.
La Cara fits the historical profile. She’s the confirmed speed in a short field, and if Dylan Davis keeps her unchallenged early, La Cara could slip away in the stretch.
Good Cheer and Nitrogen have tactical speed and could keep the pressure on La Cara. I’m drawing a line through Good Cheer’s Acorn finish where she failed as the favorite. The Kentucky Oaks heroine might not have liked the sloppy track.
Nitrogen is an intriguing entry. She looked comfortable outclassing Drop the Hammer earlier this year in a four-furlong dirt breeze at Palm Meadows and is voted most likely to upset the applecart.
Margie’s Intention closed for second in the Delaware Oaks despite being a pace presser. She’s suspect for 1 1/4 miles but can take the short way around and has a shot to pick up a check if she tailgates the pace.
Ashley: This is Good Cheer’s chance to re-establish her dominance of the 3-year-old filly division after suffering her first career defeat last out in the Acorn (G1). She remained at Saratoga after her baffling poor run and reportedly has been doing well. Blake Cox, son and assistant trainer to his father Brad Cox, told BloodHorse that the filly has put on weight. Luis Saez also was quoted as saying that her final tune-up was good and that he felt like she was 100% now.
La Cara gets the tactical advantage as the lone speed in the field. She was able to successfully utilize that in the Acorn (G1) but went backward in the Kentucky Oaks after doing the early leg work. Both tracks came up muddy, so it’s doubtful that the surface conditions were responsible for either filly’s poor showing in their last two outings. It’s a split decision between Good Cheer and La Cara as they have both won one and finished off the board once against each other.
Nitrogen has been a beast on turf, but she showed she was equally capable, at least in the mud, when she won the Wonder Again (G3). Obviously she was facing other turf runners rather than true dirt competitors, but she did it so easily that you have to think she has a shot at this.
Margie’s Intention is the only other filly I’d consider playing, but she would be solely in the lower exotics.
Selections
Laurie | Ashley |
| 2. Good Cheer | 2. Good Cheer |
| 6. La Cara | 6. La Cara |
| 4. Nitrogen | 4. Nitrogen |
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