This week I finally take a crack at making sense of the 2-year-olds, sorting through the results and, more importantly, relying on the eye test. Ranking these juveniles before Labor Day never makes much sense, so I’ve always held off until after the Del Mar Futurity, traditionally run on or just after Labor Day, to roll out the initial 2-year-old male and female rankings.
Much of the spotlight in last week’s Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity was on the much-hyped Brant making his second start, but I went in a different direction when deciding who sits atop the 2-year-old male rankings. And just like with the colts, you could make a case for several fillies, but I chose to start with an East Coast runner on top.
With that, here are the initial 2-year-old rankings, and I’ll share more of my early thoughts on some of them below.
2-year-old males
1. Ted Noffey. Really showed me a lot in that Grade 1 Hopeful win, which was extraordinary. Excited to see him in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) for his next start at Keeneland as I don't think the added distance will be his downfall.
2. Ewing. Won the Saratoga Special (G2) last out and is unbeaten in two starts. Will next at Keeneland in the Breeders' Futurity.
3. It's Our Time. I rarely rank a maiden winner this high or even at all, but with 2-year-olds, the rankings can be volatile from week to week. He earned this spot by demolishing a Saratoga maiden field of eight others by more than 17 lengths, posting a sharp figure in the process.
4. Brant. The hype horse in the division, but I am not convinced. He was 1-9 in the Del Mar Futurity but had to work hard to score a one-length win over Desert Gate. As he goes longer I expect he will find things even tougher.
5. Desert Gate. The Best Pal (G3) winner ran very well in the Del Mar Futurity, closing the gap on Brant to drop a one-length decision. He would be a serious player in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile if he runs there.
Next 5: Comport, Civil Liberty, Buetane, Curtain Call, Boyd.
2-year-old fillies
1. Tommy Jo. Impressive in her first two career starts, her last out being a six-length score in the Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga.
2. Bottle of Rouge. The Del Mar Debutante (G1) winner drove clear late for the win. She is 2-for-3 in her career thus far.
3. Explora. The Debutante favorite didn't run poorly when finishing second and should be better around two turns.
4. Time to Dream. It might surprise a few to see her ranked this high, but she is 2-for-2 in her career on the grass, both at Saratoga, with her last coming in the listed P. G. Johnson Stakes.
5. Himika. Expected more from her last out in the Del Mar Debutante where she checked in fourth. Before that she won the Sorrento (G3) at Del Mar
Next 5: Dazzling Dame, La Wally, Percy's Bar, Mythical, Chopsticks.
At the top of the 2-year-old male division is the impressive Ted Noffey. His Hopeful win was outstanding in every respect, leaving the impression that added distance in upcoming races should pose no problem. To this point, he’s been the most impressive juvenile of the season.
Out west, much has been made of Brant, but I have him no better than No. 4 this week. The Del Mar Futurity field was composed entirely of runners from just two barns, and as the 1-9 favorite, he had to work far harder than expected to get the job done.
Debuting at No. 3 is It’s Our Time, who owns only a maiden win, but what a maiden win it was. His Saratoga romp by more than 17 lengths in fast time was eye-catching, and although he’s playing catch-up for now, he could have plenty to say in this division before the season is done.
On the female side, Tommy Jo debuts on top after her runaway victory in the Spinaway. She’s now 2-for-2 to start her career and, like Ted Noffey, looks like a filly who will only get better with added distance.
Bottle of Rouge jumps into the rankings after her Del Mar Debutante win, upsetting the favorite and No. 3 ranked Explora. She has put together two straight wins since finishing runner-up to Himika in her debut.
Himika checks in at No. 5, perhaps a touch high after finishing fourth in the Debutante. Still, her earlier score in the Sorrento (G3) keeps her in the mix for now.
As I’ve said before, these 2-year-old rankings are volatile and can change overnight. Don’t be surprised if the picture looks very different after this weekend’s juvenile stakes
Older dirt males
1. Mindframe. He was very fortunate to escape unscathed from a disastrous Jockey Club Gold Cup. He retains his place at the top for now, but the focus shifts to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Still, as much respect as he commands, it’s hard to envision him winning the Classic coming in off a four-month layoff.
2. Sierra Leone. Ran a remarkable race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) after having to veer hard to his right near the start to avoid the fallen jock who was aboard Mindframe. Jockey Flavien Prat nearly pulled Sierra Leone up, but after the colt appeared fine around the first turn, he let him continue despite being 18 lengths back at one point in the race. Considering the chaos, where most believe he lost five to seven lengths, Sierra Leone still managed to rally for second, beaten just over a length. He remains one of only three with a legitimate chance to topple Sovereignty in the Classic and to join Tiznow as the only back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Classic winners.
3. Fierceness. He really showed me something in his Pacific Classic (G1) win, overcoming a near-disastrous start before surging to the lead mid-race and never looking back. Clearly at home at Del Mar, if he delivers his A game in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he’ll be awfully tough to reel in. He joins the short list of three with a legitimate chance to stop Sovereignty.
4. Nysos. His scratch from the Pacific Classic ended any realistic Eclipse hopes in this division. Connections now point to the Goodwood (G1) later this month, which might prove a better stepping stone. Rather than stretching from 8 1/2 to 10 furlongs, he’ll get the nine-furlong test of the Goodwood. A strong showing there would earn him a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
5. Antiquarian. He emerged as the winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup and has quietly put together a solid season, with placings in the Suburban (G2) and Blame (G3). I’m still not convinced he truly belongs at this level. But much like the 3-year-old division, this group is extremely top-heavy, with a significant gap between the top four and everyone else
Next five: Highland Falls, White Abarrio, Locked, Hit Show, Phileas Fogg.
Older dirt females
1. Thorpedo Anna. Credit where it’s due, she just wins. Last out, she dug in to edge Dorth Vader by a nose in the Personal Ensign (G1), all but clinching another Eclipse with her fourth win in five starts this season. There might still be a contender or two out west with something to say in this division, but she simply keeps finding ways to get it done. Likely to run next in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland.
2. Seismic Beauty. Scored a nice win last out in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1), going wire to wire. Clearly the fastest horse in the division on paper in 2025, she will be a tough one to beat if she can stay healthy this fall.
3. Kopion. I thought she ran a sneaky-good race when closing from last to finish second behind Seismic Beauty in the Clement Hirsch. The added distance didn't bother her, and there’s no reason to think she can’t handle the nine furlongs of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Her connections now have a choice. Stretch out and take a swing at the Distaff or cut back to sprints, where she’s already proven to be among the best.
4. Dorth Vader. Nearly pulled off another Grade 1 win in the Personal Ensign when losing the bob at the wire to Thorpedo Anna. That might be the margin that costs her an Eclipse. She won the Phipps (G1) in June for her only win this year.
5. Leslie's Rose. She checked in third in the Personal Ensign, though a distant third, more than nine lengths behind Dorth Vader. Before that, she picked up her first graded win of the season in the Shuvee (G2) at Saratoga and earlier finished third in the Vagrancy (G3)
Next five: Cavalieri, Richi, Raging Sea, Randomized, Dazzling Move.
3-year-old males
1. Sovereignty. He dominated an overmatched Travers (G1) field and now sits just one win away from horse of the year. His résumé has grown with each start, and he now stands as the most accomplished Kentucky Derby winner post-Derby since American Pharoah. He’ll train up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, where the divisional Eclipse might hang in the balance and horse of the year certainly will.
2. Journalism. He entered the Pacific Classic needing a win to stay in this Eclipse conversation but never seriously threatened Fierceness and settled for a distant second. Still, it’s been a strong season overall, though he does appear to have plateaued. His next start could come in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
3. Baeza. Ran his heart out in the Jim Dandy (G2) only to be second best, dropping a one-length decision to Sovereignty. Still in search of his first stakes win, but he is clearly in the top three of his division despite that fact. Expected next in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1).
4. Gosger. Would be a dual Grade 1 winner if not for the heroics of Journalism. His last two starts, the Preakness and Haskell (G1), have been solid runner-up finishes. Won the Lexington (G3) this season. Will run next in the Pennsylvania Derby.
5. Goal Oriented. Hasn't won a stakes race yet but ran extremely well in the Preakness and then the Haskell. Will run next in the Pennsylvania Derby.
Next 5: Burnham Square, Chunk of Gold, Magnitude, Coal Battle, Patch Adams.
3-year-old fillies
1. Nitrogen. Showed up in the Alabama (G1) and proved much the best to rocket to the top of this division. This turf standout now will stick to the dirt as she will look for one more race before the Breeders' Cup Distaff. Will take on Thorpedo Anna next in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland.
2. Good Cheer. Rebounded from her disastrous Acorn (G1) to run a very good second to Nitrogen in the Alabama. Not out of the Eclipse race here.
3. Scottish Lassie. Don't look now, but this gal is very close to the top after a dominating score in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). Before that she was third in the Acorn (G1). Should run next in the Cotillion (G1) in September.
4. La Cara. Didn't really run her race when off the board in the Alabama. Previously she was the dominant winner of the Acorn. She has two Grade 1 wins on the season. Will also run in the Cotillion (G1) at Parx.
5. Quietside. Didn’t look like she cared for the slop in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), fading to sixth. Before that, she delivered a gutsy win in the Fantasy (G2), outdueling Simply Joking in a thrilling stretch battle. Will continue to drop if she doesn't run soon.
Next five: Drexel Hill, Five G, Simply Joking, Kilwin, Margie's Intention.
Turf males
1. Deterministic. He has rattled off three straight graded-stakes wins, including back-to-back Grade 1s. His latest was a dominant performance in the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga after a big score in the shortened nine-furlong Manhattan (G1) the day after the Belmont. He’s 3-for-4 on the year and very much trending in the right direction.
2. Formidable Man. He captured the Del Mar Mile (G2) last out, his second straight graded-stakes victory following the Eddie Read (G2). That gives him three graded wins on the year, having also taken the Kilroe Mile (G1).
3. Far Bridge. Ran his worst race of the season last out in the Sword Dancer (G1), finishing off the board. Still, I won't drop him too far given his résumé this season, which features three graded-stakes victories.
4. El Cordobes. The Sword Dancer winner last out, he has won his last two races, both graded stakes. Has run seven times already this season.
5. Fort Washington. He finally broke through with his first Grade 1 in the Arlington Million, a career highlight after 27 starts and three Grade 3 victories. At 6, this veteran appeared to be in the midst of a breakout season, with two other graded wins already on his résumé. But last out he could do no better than sixth in the Kentucky Turf Cup (G2).
Next five: Integration, Old Crazy Bone, Spirit of St Louis, Redistricting, Zulu Kingdom.
Turf females
1. She Feels Pretty. She gutted out a game win in the E. P. Taylor (G1) to hold her spot on top here. It was her second Grade 1 of the season and, remarkably, her fifth overall in just 12 starts, the fastest to five since Rushing Fall matched the feat five years ago.
2. Excellent Truth. She finally broke through for her first Grade 1 win last time out in the Diana after finishing runner-up in her three prior attempts. The win, though impressive, isn't enough for me to push her above She Feels Pretty, who would prevail if the Eclipse vote were held today. Should run next in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland.
3. Dynamic Pricing. Was third in the Diana, over four lengths behind the top two ranked in this division. Before that she scored a win in the Just a Game for her first top-level score. Last out she took care of business in the listed Perfect Sting Stakes at Saratoga.
4. Special Wan. Scored in the Ladies Turf (G3) last out in only her third start this season. Still, she has been good finishing third behind Dynamic Pricing in the Just a Game and winning the Honey Fox (G3)
5. Bellezza. Won the Flower Bowl (G2) last out and the Sheepshead Bay (G3) earlier this season. In between she placed in the New York (G1) behind She Feels Pretty and the Glens Falls (G2).
Next five: Beach Bomb, Heredia, Be Your Best, Ag Bullet, Saffron Moon.
Male sprinters
1. Book'em Danno. His Forego (G1) victory only further separated him from the rest of the division. That’s now three straight major sprint wins. Even if he skips the Breeders’ Cup, it’s hard to envision voting for anyone else for this Eclipse. This gelding has had an outstanding season and, for me, won’t be penalized if his connections choose to bypass Del Mar.
2. Patch Adams. This 3-year-old has clearly found his niche sprinting after failed attempts going longer. He has won back-to-back Grade 1 races against his classmates, most recently the H. Allen Jerkens (G1) at Saratoga. If he were to add the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, would it be enough to unseat Book’em Danno if the Danno didn’t show up? For me, the answer is still no.
3. Dr. Venkman. This gelding ran big last out in winning the Pat O'Brien (G2) and stamping himself as a Breeders' Cup Sprint contender. Remember, he was second to Nysos in the Triple Bend (G3).
4. Nysos. Scratched out of the Pacific Classic and in his last race he stretched out in the San Diego (G2) to score another win. I won't rule him out sprinting or going back to a mile. It will depend on the outcome of his next start, the Goodwood at Santa Anita later this month.
5. Straight No Chaser. The reigning Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion disappointed in Dubai, finishing eighth in the Golden Shaheen (G1). Before that he kicked off 2025 with a win in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2) in Saudi Arabia. He too likely will fall from this spot soon.
Next five: Mullikin, Booth, Lovesick Blues, Captain Cook, Scotland.
Female sprinters
1. Kopion. Even after her loss to Sweet Azteca in the Great Lady M (G2), she holds onto the top spot for now. Before that, she blew past her 8-1 morning line in the Derby City Distaff (G1), powering home with authority. With Kopion, Sweet Azteca and Ways and Means all likely Del Mar-bound, this top-heavy division is setting the stage for one of the Breeders’ Cup’s most anticipated showdowns. Last out she ran a solid second in the Clement Hirsch at 8 1/2 furlongs, but a return to sprinting could still be in the cards.
2. Sweet Azteca. Scored her second win this season last out in the Rancho Bernardo (G3). This was after her remarkable comeback win in the Great Lady M, where she defeated Kopion. That came nine months to the day after her last race, a stunning off-the-board finish at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth (G3) at Santa Anita. A major player in this division when she is right.
3. Hope Road. This West Coast-based star dominated the Ballerina at Saratoga, earning her first Grade 1 victory. The win also flattered Kopion, whom she had been chasing earlier in the year. She now looks like a major player for the Breeders’ Cup.
4. Ways and Means. Absolutely dominated the Bed o’ Roses (G2), drawing off by more than seven lengths and staking her claim as likely the top female sprinter on the East Coast. Before that, she was a solid third in the Derby City Distaff (G1) behind top-ranked Kopion.
5. Two Sharp. Has made only one appearance this season but made it count, cruising to an easy win in the Winning Colors (G3) at Churchill Downs, taking down Hope Road and the rest with little trouble.
Next five: Nic's Style, Richi, Scylla, Vahva, Positano Sunset.
